1 Роль статистики, сбора и анализа данныхРоль статистики, сбора и анализа данных Хендрик ван дер Поль Директор

2 Обзор презентации Введение в международную статистику образованияЗачем нужна статистика, виды статистики Роль ИСЮ, принципы и методы Примеры международной статистики образования, производимой ИСЮ Среднее образование 2

3 Зачем нужна статистика?Пропаганда в целях мобилизации поддержки и ресурсов Мониторинг, например показатели программы Образование Для Всех Разработка, информирование и внесение поправок в соответствующие политические установки, обеспечивая принятие решений, основанных на фактических данных Let me start with the questions: Why do we need education statistics? We at the UIS see three main roles of education statistics: First of all - advocacy. Having true unbiased statistics is very important in mobilizing support and resources both at the national and international levels. Let me give you one example from expenditure statistics: if a Ministry of Education has internationally comparative information on expenditure per students in different countries, it may be better equipped to negotiate with the Ministry of Finance on financial resources for universities. Internationally, simple statistics like the number of out of school children, net enrolment ratio and primary completion ratio are important tool for advocacy for international support for countries working towards international goals for education. The second important function of education statistics is monitoring. It is core for international goals and also national goals and strategy. The key example for this kind of monitoring is the Education for All project to which the UIS annually provides benchmark indicators monitoring the progress of the countries. Finally, education statistics plays a central role in evidence-based decision-making especially in regards to the development of education policies. Policy development without evidence is like fishing in the dark. Education statistics can offer a lot to policy-makers providing benchmarks, clarifying the current status, and also, helping to decide on the speed of the potential progress. 3

4 Зачем нужна международная статистика?Сопоставимые данные: позволяют странам учиться на примерах других, ориентируясь друг на друга показывают глобальную картину используются для межународной отчетности позволяют взглянуть на свою систему извне While the previously mentioned reasons for having educational statistics apply to the national and international levels, another question is why do we need to compare statistics internationally? Before answering this question I should give a word of warning on international statistics. Comparing internationally always adds level of complexity. The question of how to compare apples and oranges is even more complex at the international level. So why do we need to apply additional effort to make data internationally comparable? First of all, internationally comparative data allows countries to learn from each other and to benchmark their own situation, their own progress against what happened in others countries. In increasing globalized world, it is impossible to judge national goals without taking into account the goals and policies of your international competitors. So internationally comparative statistics allows you to position your country, your policy, your progress on the international map and to identify countries that are similar to your own country but may be doing better. Using statistics opens our eyes to see where to look for, where to learn from. Secondly, International statistics provide global picture of where the countries stand, and again, as I said position you on the map. We also need international statistics for the purpose of international accountability. This is especially relevant in the work on international goals like the Millennium Development Goals, but also in the cooperation with international donors and international organizations. Donor’s monies, aid’s monies are quite often tied to goals and international benchmarks. Therefore international agencies need data on education statistics that are internationally comparable. And finally I personally find that one of the important aspects is to get an outside view on your system. National education statistics are quite often limited in their perspective. Using the methods of international statistics, standardized definitions, the perspective of holistic view help you at the national level to formulate sector wide policy. 4

5 Институт статистики ЮНЕСКООснован в 1999 г. в Париже, Франция Переведён в Монреаль, Канада в 2001 г. Находится на территории Монреальского университета Поддерживает международные базы данных в следующих областях: образование наука, технология и инновации культура коммуникациия и информация The UIS Founded in 1999 in Paris, France Relocated to Montreal, Canada in 2001 Located on the campus of Université de Montréal Mandated to maintain international databases for: Education Science and technology Culture Communication and Information

6 Задачи ИСЮ Сбор и распространение международно- cопоставимой статистической информации Анализ данных Разработка и совершенствование международных классификаций Поддержка развития статистического потенциала стран Пропаганда статистики, относящейся к сфере интересов ЮНЕСКО UIS mandate Collection and dissemination of cross-nationally comparable data Analysis of comparative data Development of international classifications Technical capacity building within countries Advocacy for statistics in relation to UNESCO’s areas of interest

7 Типы статистики образованияАдминистративные данные и планирование (ИСЮ) Охват, выпускники, учителя, расходы Оценки учащихся и обзоры Тестирование: достижения (математика, чтение), процессы, условия Обследования домохозяйств : семейная ситуация Грамотность и уровень полученного образования (ИСЮ) Переписи населения, обследования домохозяйств Education statistics is produced from the wide area of sources and methods. I would like to give you an overview of the different types of education statistics that are used nationally and internationally. The longest tradition in education statistics is to use administrative data and data that come from education planning. These are collected internationally by the UIS directly from the Ministries of Education or in cooperation with National Statistical Offices. The data collected from administrative sources include the data that are typically used for planning and managing the education systems. They are transformed to be internationally comparable by the UIS. Every year we collect the data on enrolment, graduation and completion, teacher and educational expenditure from the countries. Beside the administrative data that are collected regularly by Ministries of Education, other data sources are very important for education statistics and monitoring the education system. Much attention was given in the last decades to student’s assessment data and sample surveys. This includes testing of student’s achievement typically in the fields of mathematics and reading. But there are also survey on the use of information technology, civic education and others. The main players in these fields are organisations like the International Association for the Evaluation of Education Achievement (IEA) that conducts surveys like TIMSS, PIRLS and just in the recent years conducted the Second Informational Technology Survey (SITES). Beside students assessment, an important source for information for education policy are household surveys like the multiple indicator and cluster service MICS conducted by UNICEF. This survey helps us to understand the family background of the children in school and not in school and therefore to get direct measure of school participation especially for most vulnerable parts of the population. Finally an important area of education statistics is statistics on literacy and education attainment. The UIS regularly collects data from census data and household survey to get the levels of education attainment of the population: what share of population completed secondary education, what share of population completed tertiary education and what share of population didn’t participate in education at all. 7

8 Сбор данных по образованию ИСЮПриемущества для стран: Регулярный и своевременный мониторинг систем образования Экономическaя эфективность благодаря использованию существующего потенциала министерств образования и национальных статистических офисов Связь с планированием образования, согласованность с информацией, используемой министерствами образования Информация только макро уровня Определения и стандарты, утвержденные международными классификациями и нормативами Страна фигурирует в публикациях и материалах программ Образование Для Всех (ОДВ) и Цели Развития Тысячелетия (ЦРТ) Let me talk to you about the opportunities that UIS data gives to countries. First, it offers countries an annual report on international and national issues in education, as well as providing tools for regular and timely monitoring of the education system. UIS data is also very cost efficient in light of the fact that national governments generally amass the information for their own use. Moreover, many countries don’t have the financial or technical capacities to undertake additional international surveys or assessments, which can be costly and labour-intensive. In addition, UIS data explicitly link different types of information about students to the financial and human resources invested in them. It would not be possible to calculate indicators, such as per pupil expenditure or pupil-teacher ratios, without a clear correspondence between the coverage of data on pupils and information on education resources. The Institute also provides technical guidance to Member States and other international organizations on data collection and analysis to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation process. The data collection is based on a set of statistical frameworks that organize international concepts, standards, classifications and measures, which are regularly reviewed and modified by the Institute in order to address emerging statistical issues and to improve data quality. The UIS is the lead agency responsible for the collection of education data and indicators to monitor EFA and the MDG Goals. Finally, it can also be noted that many education indicators are based on UIS data as well as population estimates and economic data provided by other statistical organizations, such as the UN Population Division and the World Bank. 8

9 UIS data are widely used for: First our flagship print publication is the Global Education Digest, but we also put equal emphasis on our Data Centre. The 2012 edition has just been released and is available for you at this workshop. We also publish a number of Factsheets, Information Notes and Technical Papers on a wide variety of topics. We provide the monitoring data which are reported in the Education For All Global Monitoring Report UIS education data are also published in the main development reports, such as UNDP’s Human Development Report, UNICEF’s The State of the World’s Children, the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and, of course, the UN’s MDG Report. 9

10 Индекс развития человеческого потенциала Индекс гендерного неравенства Образование Для Всех Индекс знания Экономический индекс знания Индекс развития ИКТ Глобальный гендерный разрыв Глобальный инновационный индекс The UIS has matured with our data collection on critical policy issues. We have got core data collections, special services – all of which were designed to take our statistics out of the silos of education, for example, and into the wider usages towards sustainable development. This is the « added value » of the Institute – our data are used to measure key development issues beyond education or science (i.e. taking the data out of the silo for use) The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite statistic of life expectancy, education, and income indices to rank countries into four tiers of human development. It is published by the UNDP. The Gender Inequality Index (GII) is a new index for measurement of gender disparity that was introduced in the 2010 Human Development Report 20th anniversary edition by UNDP. This index is a composite measure which captures the loss of achievement, within a country, due to gender inequality, and uses three dimensions to do so: reproductive health, empowerment, and labor market participation. The Knowledge Index or KI is an economic indicator prepared by the World Bank to measure a country's ability to generate, adopt and diffuse knowledge. Methodologically, the KI is the simple average of the normalized performance scores of a country or region on the key variables in three Knowledge Economy pillars - education and human resources, the innovation system and information and communication technology (ICT) The Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) takes into account whether the environment is conducive for knowledge to be used effectively for economic development. It is an aggregate index that represents the overall level of development of a country or region towards the Knowledge Economy. The KEI is calculated based on the average of the normalized performance scores of a country or region on all 4 pillars related to the knowledge economy - economic incentive and institutional regime, education and human resources, the innovation system and ICT. The ICT Development Index (IDI) is an index published by the United Nations International Telecommunication Union based on internationally agreed information and communication technologies (ICT) indicators. This makes it a valuable tool for benchmarking the most important indicators for measuring the information society. The IDI is a standard tool that governments, operators, development agencies, researchers and others can use to measure the digital divide and compare ICT performance within and across countries. The ICT Development Index is based on 11 ICT indicators, grouped in three clusters: access, use and skills. The Global Gender Gap Index is featured in the Global Gender Gap Report was first published in 2006 by the World Economic Forum. The index ranks countries according to their gender gaps and their scores can be interpreted as the percentage of the inequality between women and men that has been closed. Information about gender imbalances to the advantage of women is explicitly prevented from affecting the score. The Global Innovation Index (GII) is annually published by INSEAD. It is a composite indicator that ranks countries/economies in terms of their enabling environment to innovation and their innovation outputs. 10

11 Примеры Участие и завершение среднего образованияРасходы на образование In the next part of my presentation, I would like to share with you some examples of education indicators that the UIS produces for Secondary education. The indicators selected for this presentation hopefully will give you an idea of the status of Secondary education and show you what kind of picture we are getting when comparing the Central Asian and Eastern Europe countries with each other and with others countries in the world. I have selected five indicators to share with you. 11

12 В какой степени участие в среднем образовании связано с национального богатством?Общий коэффициент охвата программами среднего образования по показателю национального богатства, 2009 Participation ratios and national wealth As illustrated in this chart, there is a strong link between secondary participation ratios and national wealth. As a group, low-income countries had the lowest participation ratio at 39% in 2009, compared to 64% for lower middle-income countries and 90% for upper middle-income countries. Among high-income countries, the average GER reached 100%. By grouping countries according to their income level, it is possible to identify general trends. However, exceptions to these patterns are clearly seen at the country level. Among low-income countries, participation ratios are even lower than the group average in Somalia (8%), Central African Republic (12%) and Niger (13%). In contrast, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exceed the average for this group, with 80% of their relevant school-age populations participating in secondary education. Several upper middle-income countries report levels exceeding 100%, which is typically found in the high-income group. These countries include: Antigua and Barbuda, Brazil, Dominica, Montenegro, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Seychelles. Finally, it should be noted that five high-income countries/territories (Andorra; Bermuda; Cayman Islands; China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; and Qatar) had GERs below 85% compared to the high-income group average of 100%.

13 Какая доля учащихся заканчивает первый этап среднего образования?Общий коэффициент охвата программами первого этапа среднего образования, все программы, 2009 г. Lower secondary education completion More students have access to lower secondary education, but how many of them are actually completing this level? The gross graduation ratio is generally used as a proxy to measure completion at the lower secondary level. This ratio compares the number of graduates of lower secondary education to the population of graduation age for this level. This chart presents gross graduation ratios for the ISCED 2 level for Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Central and Eastern Europe, gross graduation ratios for lower secondary education exceed 80% in the four reporting countries. The same can be noted in Central Asia, for eight of the nine countries with data available. In Central Asia, the gender balance can tip either way, depending on the country. One-half of the eight countries reporting data have graduation ratios for the lower secondary level that are higher for female students (Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia), one-quarter have ratios higher for male students (Georgia and Tajikistan), and the last quarter have equal ratios for both sexes (Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan). In the neighbouring region of Central and Eastern Europe, lower secondary school graduation ratios are higher for female students than male students in three of the four countries (Albania, the Republic of Moldova and Serbia) with available data.

14 Изучение различий в уровне образования сельской молодежиДоля сельской молодежи в возрасте от 15 дo 24 лет, не закончивших первый этап среднего образования (МСКО2) Данные, полученные при обследовании домохозяйств, показывают степень гендерного разрыва в сельской местности: Невыгодное положение женщин Гендерное равенство Невыгодное положение мужчин In countries with well established educational systems, national estimates on school participation reveal close to universal participation in lower secondary. However to ensure that every last child and youth enter and stay in school, disaggregated analysis can help identify the profile of those who face greater risks of not completing lower secondary. This figure uses household surveys to examine the youth population aged who have not completed lower secondary education (according to ISCED 97). These surveys are the latest international surveys available but are older, from 2005, except in the case of Albania (2009). It shows that by and large, most rural male and female youth complete lower secondary. However, among rural youth, females are more likely to leave school without completion in Tajikistan and Azerbaijan. However there is gender parity among rural youth in completion of lower secondary. In Albania, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. By contrast, young men from rural areas in Moldova are slightly more likely to leave without complete lower secondary. Slide notes: -Data sources: Household survey data analysis by UIS for the GMR 2012. -Datasets used: Albania Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), Armenia 2005 DHS, Azerbaijan 2006 DHS, Kyrgyzstan MICS, Moldova 2005 DHS, and Tajikistan 2005 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). -Data on Georgia was not available in this figure. Source: Household survey data analysis. Pg , GMR 2012, UIS (2012a).

15 Городской молодежи из бедных семей сложнее завершить начальный этап среднего образованияДоля молодежи в возрасте от 15 дo 24 лет, не закончивших первый этап среднего образования (МСКО2), по месту проживания и семейному доходу Данные, полученные при обследовании домохозяйств, показывают различия: В городах: разрыв между богатой и бедной городской молодежью Среди беднейшего населения: разрыв между городской и сельской молодежью Now we shift the focus to relative household wealth, and look at the disparities amongst the poorest and richest households. This figure looks at the same population (15-24 year olds) who have not completed basic education, but compares the richest, urban youth (purple dots) with urban and rural youth from the poorest 40% of households. First, what we see is an urban divide: youth from the richest quintile are much more likely to have completed lower secondary, compared to the poorest 40% of urban youth. Second, we see that in the four countries shown here (Tajikistan, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Albania), amongst youth from the poorest households, urban youth are more likely not to complete lower secondary than rural youth. We see that poor, urban youth may require particular attention in policymaking to ensure they stay in school to complete lower secondary. Slide notes: -Data sources: Household survey data analysis by UIS for the GMR 2012. -Datasets used: Albania Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), Azerbaijan 2006 Demographic and Health Survey, Moldova 2005 Demographic and Health Survey, and Tajikistan 2005 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). -Data on Georgia and Armenia were not available in this figure. -How is wealth measured here? DHS and MICS surveys use an index, which is based on the results of detailed list of questions related to household construction and sanitation, and household items. Responses are calculated, and grouped into household wealth quintiles. These represent “relative” measures of wealth compared to the other households surveyed in the country. Therefore, it does not measure absolute wealth, and the living conditions of the poorest quintile in one country is not comparable with that of another country. Source: Household survey data analysis. Pg. 259, GMR 2012, UIS (2012a).

16 Изменения в разнице между участием в первом и во втором этапах среднего образованияОбщий коэффициент охвата программами первого и второго этапов среднего образования по регионам Changing regional patterns in participation since 1999 In most countries, upper secondary education is not compulsory, which partly explains why young people are less likely to pursue this level of study compared to lower secondary education. As shown in this chart, North America and Western Europe is the only region to have similar GERs for lower and upper secondary education, 103% and 98% respectively, between 1999 and In most countries in this region, some or all upper secondary education programmes are considered compulsory. Globally, participation in upper secondary education is on the increase. In 2009, enrolment at this level of education represented 56% of the relevant age group compared to 45% in 1999. The greatest progress in upper secondary GER was made in East Asia and the Pacific, where the regional GER rose from 45% to 66% between 1999 and 2009, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (62% to 75%). Central Asia also made significant progress, with the GER at this level increasing from 82% to 94% during this period. Participation levels remain relatively low in the Arab States and in South and West Asia. In the Arab States, the upper secondary GER rose by just 6 percentage points, from 42% in 1999 to 48% in This may partly reflect the greater priority placed on improving access to lower secondary education in many countries across the region. In South and West Asia, enrolment at upper secondary education represents only 44% of the targeted school-age population, which nevertheless marks a major improvement compared to 1999, when the ratio was 30%. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest regional GER for upper secondary education: 27% in 2009 compared to 20% in Moreover, this regional average is to some extent skewed by the weight of a few countries, such as South Africa where the GER reached 93%, Kenya (43%) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (31%). Beyond these exceptions, almost two-thirds of the countries in the region have upper secondary school GERs below the regional average. For example, in the Central African Republic, Niger, Somalia and the United Republic of Tanzania, GERs in upper secondary education programmes were at or below 6% in However, between 1999 and 2009, lower secondary education GERs have increased significantly in sub-Saharan Africa (from 28% to 43%), implying growing potential demand for upper secondary education.

17 Какая доля населения завершает второй этап среднего образования?Общий показатель окончания второго этапа среднего образования по типам программ, 2009 г. Trends in upper secondary education completion: Most students are ready to pursue tertiary education In general, access to upper secondary education has been growing, but how many students actually complete these programmes? Upper secondary school completion can be measured by the gross graduation ratio, which represents the total number of upper secondary education graduates expressed as a percentage of the population at the theoretical graduation age for this level of education. Data on upper secondary school completion were reported by 17 countries in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. In most of these countries, the gross graduation ratio—comprising both the programmes with and without direct access to tertiary education— exceeded 70%. The exceptions were Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova and Turkey, where the ratio ranged from 24% to 65%. Most students in the region graduate from programmes intended to prepare them for tertiary education. In Central Asia, seven out of nine countries showed 60% or higher gross graduation ratios in upper secondary education programmes, all of which are designed to lead to tertiary education. The exception was Tajikistan, where the ratio was 44% in 2007.

18 Как распределяются государственные расходы на образование?Commitment and investment by governments in secondary education A common way to gauge a government’s commitment to education is to compare public expenditure on education with the gross domestic product (GDP). As shown in this chart, the world average of total public expenditure on all levels of education in 2009 totalled 4.8% of GDP. Public spending on education as a share of GDP was highest in North America and Western Europe (5.2%), followed by Central and Eastern Europe (5.0%) and sub-Saharan Africa (4.9%). The regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as South and West Asia, are close to the world average, with 4.8% and 4.7% respectively. The lowest public share of national resources in education is found in Central Asia, with an average of 3.6%. Globally, public spending on primary and secondary levels of education as a share of GDP is equally distributed. Public expenditure for secondary education accounted for 1.6% of the world’s GDP in 2009, while primary and tertiary education attracted 1.7% and 1.0%, respectively. However, the situation varies considerably between and within the different regions. From a regional perspective, sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia and the Pacific devote the lowest shares of GDP to secondary education (1.3%), followed by the Arab States and Latin America and the Caribbean, with 1.5%. At the national level, public spending on this education level falls even further in many countries, such as Central African Republic, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Guinea, Liberia, Swaziland and Zambia, which invest less than 0.5% of GDP in their secondary education systems. These low levels of investment are not simply due to a lack of government commitment but also to very weak and limited domestic tax bases in many developing countries. In addition, a government’s investment in education is determined by a number of other factors, such as the size of the primary and secondary school-age populations, national educational priorities, and competing funding priorities from other social sectors, like health. 18

19 Политическая значимостьКонкретные мероприятия, направленные на повышение спроса и предложения среднего образования, необходимы в странах Африки. Мероприятия, направленные на улучшения доступа к среднему образованию почти во всех регионах, должны также включать рассмотрение содержания программ среднего образования с целью удовлетворения потребностей рынка труда. Key findings The secondary level is a crucial stage in the education system for the social and economic development of a country. The demand for secondary education has been increasing worldwide as more countries achieve UPE. The knowledge, attitudes and skills that young people acquire through secondary education are important for their future as productive and healthy citizens of their countries. Today, more countries need a sophisticated labour force equipped with competencies and skills that cannot be acquired through primary education alone. Moreover, workers who have completed upper secondary education earn more than those with less education. Although participation in secondary education has expanded worldwide since 1999, it is far from universal. The GER in lower secondary education increased from 72% to 80% worldwide between 1999 and 2009, with notable increases in the Arab States (from 72% to 87%) and sub-Saharan Africa (from 28% to 43%). Upper secondary education is not compulsory in most developing countries. The GERs of upper secondary education in the Arab States (48%), South and West Asia (44%) and sub-Saharan Africa (27%) were far below the world average of 56% in 2009. Disparities between young men and women in access to secondary education remain a challenge. Between 1999 and 2009, the female GER increased from 69% to 79% in lower secondary and from 43% to 55% in upper secondary education worldwide. However, Arab States and sub-Saharan Africa still have serious gender disparities at the lower secondary level, and this problem continues at the upper secondary level in South and West Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Even in countries that have reached gender parity at the aggregate level, data for sub-groups of the population often reveal that gender disparities in school attendance persist, for example among children from rural or poorer households. Regarding public expenditure on education, almost the same percentage relative to GDP was allocated to primary education (1.7%) and secondary education (1.6%) worldwide in 2009. Policy implications Policy measures aimed at mitigating the causes of low transition rates from primary to secondary education need to take into account the growing demand for secondary education. While 95% of primary school graduates continue their education at the lower secondary level in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and North America and Western Europe, the transition rate from primary to secondary education remains low in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Supply-side interventions, such as increasing or improving the provision of schools and qualified teachers, as well as demand-side interventions, such as improving social and economic conditions of households, could be considered depending on each country’s context. Upper secondary education could also be provided more widely, depending on the social and economic demands of each country. Compared to primary and lower secondary education, access to this higher education level is still limited in all regions, except North America and Western Europe. Human resources with more advanced levels of knowledge and skills are required in many countries, including developing countries, to meet the needs of a knowledge-based economy. The content of upper secondary education should, therefore, be relevant to the demands of the labour market. Furthermore, the provision of upper secondary education should be planned to meet the specific social and economic needs of each country, taking into consideration various issues—such as school location, physical capacity of schools, insertion of vocational components into the curriculum, local labour market demands, and the provision of teachers and instructional equipment.

20 Спасибо