1 1 High Speed Rail for Central Europe? Tomeš, Z. – Jandová, M. – Seidenglanz, D. INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORT ECONOMICS, GEOGRAPHY AND POLICY

2 Motivation 2

3 3 European x national strategies European strategy → promotion of TEN network; to establish the key links to facilitate transport in the EU; international focus National strategies → to connect main centres of economic activity within one country; domestic regional and political issues; national focus

4 Aim The aim of the paper is to rank potential HSR connections in Central Europe. 4

5 Methodology Ranking methodology based on Todorovich – Hagler (2009) and Guirao – Campa (2014). The five main categories of variables to determine the value of Ranking Index to score the corridors in order to evaluate their HSR potential:  population size  origin-destination distance  economic vitality  urban transit connections  congestion 5

6 Ranking results (1) – U.S. HSR phasing plan 6 Source: Todorovich and Hagler (2009)

7 7 Ranking results (2) – HSR Spain Source: Guirao and Campa (2014) Proposal for a theoretical construction phasing based on the modelling results Current Spanish HSR lines in operation with their year of opening

8 Our approach (1) 1)To include 10 international cross connections between capital cities: (Berlin, Prague, Warszawa, Wien, Budapest) 2)To include 10 most important national connections: Warszawa → Lodz, Katowice, Krakow, Wroclaw, Poznan Prague → Brno, Ostrava Budapest → Gyor, Debrecen Berlin → Dresden 8

9 Our approach (2) 9

10 10 International connections National connections 1.Wien - Berlin3.07 2.Prague - Berlin2.94 3.Prague - Wien2.60 4.Budapest - Wien2.52 5.Warszawa - Berlin1.85 6.Warszawa - Wien1.36 7.Budapest – Berlin1.00 8.Prague – Warszawa0.75 9.Prague - Budapest0.63 10.Budapest - Warszawa0.59 1.Dresden - Berlin2.85 2.Warszawa – Katowice0.81 3.Warszawa – Lodz0.67 4.Prague - Brno0.54 5.Warszawa – Krakow0.44 6.Warszawa – Poznan0.43 7.Warszawa – Wroclaw0.34 8.Prague - Ostrava0.34 9.Budapest – Debrecen0,10 10.Budapest - Gyor0.04 Ranking results

11 International line and national network 11

12 12 International connections National connections RIAirRailBus 1.Wien - Berlin3.071218 2.Prague - Berlin2.942821 3.Prague - Wien2.605823 4.Budapest - Wien2.523139 5.Warszawa - Berlin1.85347 6.Warszawa - Wien1.36533. 7.Budapest – Berlin1.00422 8.Prague – Warszawa0.75832 9.Prague - Budapest0.634711 10.Budapest - Warszawa0.59520 RIAirRailBus 1.Dresden - Berlin2.850830 2.Warszawa – Katowice0.812193. Warszawa – Lodz0.6702125 4.Prague - Brno0.5403466 5.Warszawa – Krakow0.4472220 6.Warszawa – Poznan0.434167 7.Warszawa – Wroclaw0.3481315 8.Prague - Ostrava0.342330 9.Budapest – Debrecen0,100320 10.Budapest - Gyor0.040441 Direct daily sevices 2016 (air, rail, bus)

13 Discussion  Ranking Index parameters  Different costs of HSR build-up in lowlands and hills  Connection of main centres x intermediate stations  Links to Germany  CBA results 13

14 Conclusions Based on our ranking exercise, two prospective HSR projects have emerged: 1.International line: Berlin – Dresden – Prague – Brno – Wien – Bratislava – Gyor – Budapest 2.National network: Warsawa – Krakow/Katowice Warsawa – Lodz – Wroclaw/Poznan 14

15 Thank you! 15