1 11TH ANNUAL INDIA SEMINAR GUILDHALL, LONDON, 15 JUNE 2017 “INDIA AT 70: IS THE BEST YET TO COME?”KEYNOTE SPEECH: H.E. MR Y. K. SINHA, High Commissioner of India to the UK FOLLOWED BY SPEAKERS: LORD KARAN BILIMORIA, Chairman, Cobra Beer Partnership, Chancellor of University of Birmingham ADAM ROBERTS, ex-South Asia Bureau Chief, The Economist SHANKAR N.S., Head of UK & Ireland, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) ROBIN GRIFFITHS, Chief Technical Strategist, ECU Group GURCHARAN DAS, Author, Commentator and Thought Leader CHAIRMAN: DEEPAK LALWANI OBE, Chairman, Lalcap
2 POLITICS: THE MODI EFFECT3RD YEAR IN OFFICE: NOT QUITE DELIVERED ON THE EUPHORIC EXPECTATIONS THAT SWEPT HIM TO POWER. BUT STILL SEEN AS THE BEST BET FOR INDIA GROUND REALITIES: MAJORITY IN LOWER HOUSE, BUT NOT IN UPPER HOUSE. KEY REFORMS DELAYED BUT NOT DERAILED? SUCCESS WITH GST LEGISLATIVE LOGJAM: MODI’S STYLE UNABLE TO WIN OVER OPPOSITION VERY ACTIVE FOREIGN VISITS: HAS ENHANCED NATIONAL IMAGE ENERGISED A LETHARGIC BUREAUCRACY. GREATER TRANSPARENCY – INCREASING ONLINE. NO SPECIAL FAVOURS TO BIG BUSINESS 3 YEARS LARGELY FREE OF SCAMS. NO NEPOTISM. MANY INITIATIVES UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT DELIVERY IN JUST 3 YEARS. 5 YEAR MANDATE ! Copyright: Lalcap Ltd 2017
3 ECONOMY INVESTMENT LED ECONOMIC RECOVERY NOT YET ON HORIZON: EXCESS CAPACITY ACROSS SECTORS + HIGH DEBT IN BALANCE SHEETS BUT, PICK-UP IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN LAST 3 MONTHS HOW QUICKLY CAN THE ECONOMY ACCELERATE? REFORMS NEED TO BE SPEEDED UP + INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS URGENT IMPROVEMENT ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS STRONG (YOUNG POPULATION + GROWING MIDDLE CLASS) RETAIL INFLATION TAMED. ALLOWED INTEREST RATE CUTS ECONOMIC GROWTH: GDP EST. +7.2% YEAR TO MAR OVERTAKEN CHINA AS FASTEST GROWING MAJOR ECONOMY. Copyright: Lalcap Ltd 2017
4 ECONOMY INDIA HEADWINDS: MONSOON,POOR INFRASTRUCTURE,SLOW REFORMS, ECONOMIC RECOVERY STILL PATCHY GLOBAL HEADWINDS: WEAK DEMAND, BREXIT, CHINA SLOWING GDP: TOOK 60 YEARS FOR 1st TRILLION $ BY 2008 TOOK 7 YEARS FOR 2ND TRILLION BY 2015 EXPECTED IN 5 YEARS 3rd TRILLION BY 2020 (1.USA 2.CHINA 3.JAPAN 4.GERMANY 5.INDIA 6.UK) INDIA’S ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THAT OF THE UK BY 2020 INTO 5TH GLOBALLY & BY 2030 INDIA WILL OVERTAKE JAPAN INTO 3RD PLACE SOURCE: IMF Copyright: Lalcap Ltd 2017
5 STOCK MARKETS SENSEX: +18% YTD IN RS & + 20% IN GB£FOREIGN INVESTORS: STRONG INTEREST REFORMS NOT FAST ENOUGH, YET EARNINGS PICK UP VALUATIONS: 19.0x VS 5 YEAR AVG: 18.3x EARNINGS GROWTH: 18% LAST 36 YRS: SENSEX DOWN ONLY 9 TIMES Rs/$: (+5.5% YTD); Rs/£: (+2.3% YTD) Copyright: Lalcap Ltd 2017
6 WHICH IS THE REAL INDIA? INDIA IS ON A JOURNEY OF “CATCH UP”Copyright: Lalcap Ltd 2017
7 MODERNISING INDIA Copyright: Lalcap Ltd 2017
8 CONTACT DETAILS Deepak N. Lalwani OBE ChairmanChartered FCSI, Chartered Wealth Manager, FCCA Lalcap Ltd Level 7, Tower 42, 25 Old Broad Street London EC2N 1HN E mail: Tel: DISCLAIMER : This presentation is made solely for knowledge purposes and does not constitute investment advice. It is not a solicitation or inducement to lead to or enable transactions. Attendees should make their own investment decisions. The presentation may therefore not be suitable for all recipients and does not constitute a personal recommendation to invest. If you have any doubts about the suitability of this service, you should seek advice from your investment adviser. Lalcap Ltd does not offer a share dealing service. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of shares and the income arising from them can fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they originally invested. The information contained here has been obtained from sources which Lalcap Ltd believes to be reliable. The Company does not warrant that such information is accurate or complete. All estimates and prospective figures quoted are forecasts and not guaranteed. Opinions included in this presentation reflect the Company’s judgement at the time of presentation and are subject to change without notice. If the investment(s) mentioned in this report are denominated in a currency different from the currency of the country in which the attendee is a resident, the recipient should be aware that fluctuations in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of the investment(s). Lalcap assumes no fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences financial or otherwise arising from trading in securities if opinions and information in this document may be relied upon. COPYRIGHT : Lalcap Ltd Registered in England No.: Registered Address: Level 7, Tower 42, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HN, UK