1 2. ‘PATHS’ OF DEVELOPMENT: RESOURCES AND CHOICE OF TECHNQUE, c2. ‘PATHS’ OF DEVELOPMENT: RESOURCES AND CHOICE OF TECHNQUE, c.1500-PRESENT Gareth Austin 27/09/2012
2 Intro: Which long-term descriptor?Stasis v Path(s) Braudel’s concept of different levels of historical process, each with own rate of change most fundamental, & slowest, being ‘la longue durée’ ‘Paths’: from here to there, definite directions of change Cumulative change, yes: also path-dependent?
3 1. ‘ENVIRONMENTAL’ CONTINUITIES & LONG-TERM CHANGESLow species endemism (except Ethiopia & the Cape) Low population densities: until well into C20 Relative labour scarcity: likewise Obstacles to agricultural intensification Extreme seasonality in tropics
4 On low population densitiesHow do we know what little we know?
5 Low population: ‘guesstimates’ of African population density c1750Derived from backward projections from colonial censuses, using a range of assumptions 2.3 to 5.8 per square kilometre for SSA (Durand 1967) 2.3 to 3.0 per square kilometre for tropical Africa (Manning 1990) Contrasts with estimate of per square mile for Europe (excluding Russia) c1750 West Africa had rather denser population c1900 than the other regions of Sub-Saharan Africa
6 Confirmed by a unique contemporary statistical sourceFrom the kingdom of Kongo (northern Angola), c.1650-c.1700: Catholic baptism records Thornton estimates population at just over half a million, rising slowly between those dates, implying average density of 4.1 per square kilometre by 1700
7 Population 1850-Present: Key PointsRenewed debate about backward projections from mid-C20th censuses: Manning 2010 v Frankema & Jerven 2012 Consensus that population began to rise significantly after 1918 Influenza Pandemic And accelerated after 1950: better public health Beginning to slow by c1990: demographic transition + HIV/AIDS
8 African Continental Population: Estimates 1930-2010 Year Estimate Source145 million 175 million Kuczynski 1948 Manning 2010 1950 227 million million UN 2010 Frankema&Jerven 2012 1960 284 million 2000 819 milliom (SSA c.677 m.) 2010 1032 million
9 Significance of historically low population densitiesWhy? A harsh ‘pathogenic equilibrium’? (Hartwig & Patterson) More similar to SE Asia not South Asia Consequences for economy, culture and politics…
10 On relative scarcity of labourWhat does ‘relative scarcity’ mean? That expansion of output was constrained by shortage of labour, rather than (or more than) of the cooperating factors, land and capital A ‘one-factor production function’? Relatively high cost of labour (if uncoerced) Logic of labour coercion
11 On obstacles to agricultural intensificationSoil fertility in tropical Africa particularly vulnerable to degradation Trypanasomiasis: constraint on use of large animals Tetse fly belts: endemic in forests, shifting in savannas Restricted potential use of plough & animal fertiliser as well as enforcing head-loading
12 Extreme seasonality in tropicsLong agricultural dead season except near equator Opportunities for dry-season activities: low opportunity cost of dry-season labour
13 2. HUMAN RESPONSES: LONG-TERM PATH(S) OF CHANGE?Selective adoption of exotic cultigens Settlement Accumulation of people as a social and political priority Labour-saving in agriculture Political centralization?
14 On selective adoption of exotic cultigensLong history of importations of crop & crop varieties Mainly from parallel latitudes (cp Diamond) Selectivity Adaptation too (by Richards’ ‘natural & cultural selection’) What benefits? Food security & income
15 On settlement Iliffe’s central theme: human conquest of an environmentally-harsh continent Pushing back the disease constraints? Especially with trypanosomias
16 On accumulation of people as priorityMeasuring wealth in people not hectares Manifestations in: Systems of diverging inheritance, unlike Eurasia (J. Goody) Valuation of human fertility Slavery: economic & cultural logics of property in people
17 Labour-saving in agriculture: land-extensive methods in arable and pastoral productionNot always: irrigation and other forms of intensive farming old in precolonial Africa – but did not spread The key: intensification did not necessarily mean more productive, long-term So in SSA no hierarchy, no teleology of techniques from extensive to intensive unlike in Eurasian history
18 Political Centralisation?State-building an ancient and recurrent feature of African history, but the total area controlled by states only expanded gradually, if at all, perhaps until colonization Frequency of ‘chiefdoms’ Continuity in big-state formation in particular areas: Ethiopia, Great Lakes, Niger Bend, Zimbabwe
19 Agricultural Surpluses – or not – as basis of State?Most of tropical Africa did not produce large agricultural surpluses, for supply and demand-side reasons Hence states had to be built, if at all, on other sources of revenue: trade, minerals – locational and resource rents (Coquery-Vidrovitch, Goody …) Ethiopia the great exception
20 State Authority And central control often remained weak or spatially-limited even in colonial and post-colonial states Power ‘narrow-cast’ rather than ‘broadcast’ (Herbst) What kind of authority? Recurrent importance of patrimonialism (Arhin)
21 3. RELATIONS WITH WORLD OUTSIDEFlows of goods, trade, ideas: not so isolated Successively greater incorporation in world market? Yes, mostly Terms of incorporation in world market partly determined by Africans (rulers, merchants, producers) Choice of production technique not explicable by ignorance World religions and Sub-Saharan Africa
22
23 4. SOME RECURRENT PATTERNS (SUMMARY)Intensive agriculture: ancient but not cumulative Free labour relatively expensive until well into C20th Increasing integration in the world economy, on terms partly determined by Africans Political centralisation: ancient but not cumulative – or was it partly so, esp. post-1700?
24 Finally: refresher themes & questionsFactor endowment: constraints & opportunities Cumulative change at micro level? Strategies of individuals/households for expansion, collective (& retrospective) ‘paths’ of development Cumulative change at macro level? Strategies of political centralisers (state-builders) for creating & extending control Micro and Macro: did the strategies reinforce or contradict each other?