1 Advancing the Frontiers of Science and TechnologyTransformational Innovations Howard Charney Senior Vice President, Cisco June 27, 2017 ”Advancing the Frontiers of Science and Technology: Transformational Innovations” “In this role, we would like to ask you to provide a plenary keynote of minutes focused on the big-picture, cutting-edge innovations of tomorrow. The hope and expectation is that you will offer a megatrends perspective on interesting projects, sets of technologies or innovations, or a particular perspective that you think will highlight interesting innovation opportunities for Brazil, the United States, the rest of the world.”
3 Technological Change Is ExponentialDuring the 21st Century we may experience 20,000 years of progress, says futurist Ray Kurzweil All of that is JUST the beginning. The futurist Ray Kurzweil says that during this century we may experience not 100 years of progress… not 1,000… but the equivalent of 20,000 years of progress. Technological change is exponential, Kurzweil says. And what most of us have trouble understanding is what “exponential” really means. It’s not just real, significant, huge change. It’s much, much more than that. No matter how much you may marvel at how much the world has changed in the past 30 years – we are in the very early days. There is MUCH more to come. ©2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 3
4 Carlota Perez Model Technological Revolutions and Financial CapitalIndustrial Revolution Age of Steam and Railways Age of Steel Age of Oil and the Automobile Age of IT and the Internet 2017 1770 1830 1875 1908 1971 Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital Carlota Perez Perez believes we’re right in the middle of the fifth great technology revolution of modern times.
5 Will Technology Leave Humans Behind?“What, then, is the Singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed.” – Ray Kurzweil Futurist Ray Kurzweil believes the Singularity is near… the time when machine intelligence will be more powerful than all human intelligence combined. Wikipedia: The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 non-fiction book about artificial intelligence and the future of humanity by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil. The book builds on the ideas introduced in Kurzweil's previous books, The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990) and The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999). This time, however, Kurzweil embraces the term the Singularity, which was popularized by Vernor Vinge in his 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity" more than a decade earlier.[1] Kurzweil describes his law of accelerating returns which predicts an exponential increase in technologies like computers, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence. Once the Singularity has been reached, Kurzweil says that machine intelligence will be infinitely more powerful than all human intelligence combined. Afterwards he predicts intelligence will radiate outward from the planet until it saturates the universe.
6 Some of Today’s MegatrendsAm swapping out these photos Big Data and Data Analytics Cloud Mobility, Always Connected Internet of Things Some of the technologies that Kurzweil talked about more than 20 years ago are quickly reaching maturity. In fact, we take these for granted today.
7 Mobility Data, Sensors, Security EverywhereToday, our day-to-day existence depends upon mobility… upon being able to get and receive information 24/7, wherever we are, whatever we’re doing.
8 Cloud
9 Internet of Things Epidermal electronics, NeuralInteraction Lab, University of California at San Diego Cancer-detecting bra from Cyrcadia Health Here are two more examples from healthcare – epidermal electronics and a cancer-detecting bra from Cyradia Health. [Elaborate]
11 The Future Goes Way Beyond That…Am swapping out these photos Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Robotics and Human-Machine Interfaces Augmented and Virtual Reality So… what’s just around the corner – and how will these change the world as we know it?
12 Advanced Machine LearningI’ll just leave you with a couple of real-world, real-time examples that I have personal experience with. The new encrypted data network security breakthrough What Spectrum is working on – and how we need that kind of innovation, from brilliant young people.
13 Artificial IntelligenceArtificial intelligence is an interesting one. You may have heard the story last week about what happened when Facebook was trying to train two chatbots to negotiate. They created their own language and Facebook had to stop the experiment. This is the conversation between “Bob” and “Alice.” Now this may look like gibberish to us… but what was interesting is that the two pieces of software learned the rules of negotiation and then made the leap and began deviating from the script. Another interesting finding from that experiment is that the chatbots also learned to be a little devious. They learned to PRETEND to be interested in something they weren’t, during the negotiations. THAT’s a world we want to pay very close attention to… Business Insider’s Tech Insider, June 20, 2017 Facebook’s AI accidentally created its own language Bryan Clark, The Next Web Researchers from the Facebook Artificial Intelligence Research lab (FAIR) recently made an unexpected discovery while trying to improve chatbots. The bots — known as “dialog agents” — were creating their own language — well, kind of. Using machine learning algorithms, dialog agents were left to converse freely in an attempt to strengthen their conversational skills. Over time, the bots began to deviate from the scripted norms and in doing so, started communicating in an entirely new language — one they created without human input. In a language sense, this one is mostly gibberish. But it’s interesting that AI, if given the opportunity, begins to deviate from the script to create something new — even if it looks like this: Bob: i can i i everything else Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to Bob: you i everything else Alice: balls have a ball to me to me to me to me to me to me to me Bob: i i can i i i everything else Alice: balls have a ball to me to me to me to me to me to me to me Bob: i Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to Bob: you i i i i i everything else Alice: balls have 0 to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to Bob: you i i i everything else Alice: balls have zero to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to me to In an attempt to better converse with humans, chatbots took it a step further and got better at communicating without them — in their own sort of way. And it’s not the only interesting discovery. Researchers also found these bots to be incredibly crafty negotiators. After learning to negotiate, the bots relied on machine learning and advanced strategies in an attempt to improve the outcome of these negotiations. Over time, the bots became quite skilled at it and even began feigning interest in one item in order to “sacrifice” it at at a later stage in the negotiation as a faux compromise. We’re not talking singularity-level beings here, but the findings are a huge leap forward for AI.
15 Virtual and Augmented RealityNorwegian University of Science and Technology – Trondheim From AR Overview website ? Augmented reality is slightly different, a bit less immersive. Here’s an application that the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim dreamed up a few years ago. I don’t know if they’ve managed to make it a reality yet. But the idea is… [speak from slide].
16 Utopia or Dystopia? Photo: www.datacentered.ni [From datacentered.ni]All this talk makes some people quite worried, of course. But don’t be. McAfee and Brynjollfson make clear, artificial intelligence and computer-human interfaces and robotics and so on will complement us, not replace/overtake us. There are some things that humans are much better at than machines. A human can fold a towel without even thinking about it, for example – whereas to program a robot to do that task is thousands and thousands of lines of code. (That is called Moravec’s Paradox.) But robots are great at repetitive tasks – and particularly those that require great strength. And smart devices and the cloud and artificial intelligence make computation that would be impossible for a human something that any child can do. Going forward, we will be enjoying an age of the computer-aided human… and I am confident that that person will help us solve many of the problems of the planet that vex us today. Photo:
17 The man will be there to feed the dog.“The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.” Warren Bennis
18 Our Strategy We create solutions built on intelligent networks that solve our customers’ challenges. So: How do we prepare?
19 Building Blocks – Automotive VehiclesAutonomous Vehicles? Entertainment Systems External Connectivity Traffic Lights Internal Comms Engine Control Unit Safety Glass LEDs and LCDs Supply Chain Paved Roads Rubber Tires Let’s just take a look at how major areas of our economies and culture actually developed… at how much goes into a transformational technology. Take vehicles, for example. We take those for granted. But MANY innovations went into making it possible for you to walk out of here later today and drive to your home.
20 Building Blocks – Information and Internet AgeApplications Data in Motion Analytics Cloud Computing Data Centers Fog Computing Switching Middleware Sensors Very High Density Silicon Internet Protocol Similarly, MANY innovations have underpinned the Information and Internet Age.
21 Building Blocks – The FutureAccelerated Disruption Human Potential Accelerated Innovation Integrity and Trust Security and Privacy Public Policy Globalization Standardization Education and Training Ubiquitous Access Research & Development Public/Private Partnerships Infrastructure Investment NOTE: PLEASE TRY TO REMEMBER TO MENTION THAT CISCO INVESTS IN LOTS OF R&D. Going forward, we’re going to need not just technological innovation – but whole new ways of thinking about how we USE technology and science… to benefit all of mankind. There are many areas here where both the U.S. and Brazil are leaders – and can work together. But ALL of these areas are critical. THIS is how we build tomorrow.
22 21st Century Technology ChallengesComplexity Unlocking Intelligence Security NOTE: PLEASE TRY TO REMEMBER TO MENTION CISCO’S NEW ABILITY TO DEEPLY INSPECT ENCRYPTED NETWORK TRAFFIC FOR MALWARE. There are three very important considerations as we build out new technology: Complexity and the cost of managing technology. Unlocking intelligence to fuel growth. Managing risk and ensuring our businesses and technology are secured.
23 A man’s REACH should exceed his GRASP, or what’s a heaven forA man’s REACH should exceed his GRASP, or what’s a heaven for? Robert Browning, Poet And you know what… we CAN do that. We can do it TOGETHER. Let me end with a quote from the poet Robert Browning. As Browning said, a man’s reach should exceed his grasp – or what’s a heaven for? In other words: Aim high. We CAN do wonderful things. And we look forward to working with all of you to make those things happen. Thank you.
24 O alcance de um homem deve exceder sua compreensão, ou o que seria do paraiso? Robert Browning, Poeta And you know what… we CAN do that. We can do it TOGETHER. Let me end with a quote from the poet Robert Browning. As Browning said, a man’s reach should exceed his grasp – or what’s a heaven for? In other words: Aim high. We CAN do wonderful things. And we look forward to working with all of you to make those things happen. Thank you.
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