1 ASRC, University at AlbanyACHIEVING VERY HIGH SOLAR PENETRATION Richard Perez ASRC, University at Albany

2 A Vast Resource Total energy emitted by sun = 3.8 x1026 WattsSource: earth NASA, sun: wikipedia Total energy emitted by sun = 3.8 x1026 Watts 380,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Watts A Vast Resource © Richard Perez et al., ASRC

3 Total energy emitted by sun = 3.8 x1026 Watts 1,367 W/m2 ± 3% 150,000,000 km 63,000,000 W/m2 © Richard Perez et al., ASRC

4 Surface Mean: 170 W/m2 77,000,000,000,000,000 W SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year 1 TWy = 8.76 Trillion kWh Emerged Continents only 63,000,000 W/m2 © Richard Perez et al., ASRC

5 SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year WIND1,2 60-120renewable finite WIND1,2 60-120 per year Waves11,3 0.2-2 215 total SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year Natural Gas 1,8 3 -11 per year 240 total OTEC1,4 Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year Biomass 1,5 2016 World energy use 18 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 Total HYDRO 1,6 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 2050: 28 TWy Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8 © Richard Perez, et al. 5 5 5

6 SHALE SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year WIND1,2renewable finite WIND1,2 60-120 per year Waves11,3 0.2-2 215 total 330 total SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year Natural Gas 1,8 SHALE 3 -11 per year 310 total 240 total OTEC1,4 Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year Biomass 1,5 2016 World energy use 18 TWy per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 Total HYDRO 1,6 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 2050: 28 TWy Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8 © Richard Perez, et al. 6 6 6

7 COP 21: We must leave 80% of fossil in the groundrenewable finite WIND1,2 70-120 per year Waves11,3 0.2-2 215 total 330 total SOLAR10 23,000 per year Natural Gas 1,8 SHALE 3 -11 per year 240 total 310 total OTEC1,4 Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year 2009 World energy use 16 TWy per year Biomass 1,5 3 – 4 per year 90-300 Total HYDRO 1,6 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 2050: 28 TW 0.3 per year Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8 © Richard Perez, et al. 7 7 7

8 COP 21: We must leave 80% of fossil in the ground66 usable 330 total SOLAR10 23,000 per year Natural Gas 1,8 SHALE 62 usable 310 total Petroleum 1,8 90-300 Total Uranium 1,9 180 usable 900 Total reserve © R. Perez et al. COAL 1,8 © Richard Perez, et al. 8 8 8

9 CHEAP SOLAR BIG SOLAR © Richard Perez, et al.

10 Installations by country 2011© Richard Perez, et al.

11 IEA Projections © Richard Perez, et al.

12 INTERMITTENT SOLAR CHEAP SOLAR GHI Power grid demand© Richard Perez, et al.

13 INTERMITTENT SOLAR One Year Eastern US © Richard Perez, et al.

14 New York City electrical demandVARIABLE GENERATION BASE LOAD © ASRC © Richard Perez, et al.

15 New York City electrical demand Low penetration solar: very effectiveSolar generation VARIABLE GENERATION BASE LOAD © ASRC. © Richard Perez, et al.

16 100% SOLAR? New York City electrical demandHigh penetration solar: Problems New York City electrical demand High penetration solar: Solutions? Solar generation Unmet load 100% SOLAR? BASE LOAD Excess PV must be stored or lost © ASRC. © Richard Perez, et al.

17 H2 STORAGE Batteries & Flow batteries Compressed airPumped hydro & gravity © Richard Perez, et al.

18 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD© Richard Perez, et al.

19 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD© Richard Perez, et al.

20 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD© Richard Perez, et al.

21 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD© Richard Perez, et al.

22 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD© Richard Perez, et al.

23 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD© Richard Perez, et al.

24 3. INTERCONNECTION SINGLE CITY MULTI-STATE © Richard Perez, et al.Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University SINGLE CITY Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University MULTI-STATE © Marc Perez, Columbia U. Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University © Richard Perez, et al.

25 4. OVERBUILDING & CURTAILMENTSource: Marc Perez, Columbia University SINGLE CITY 50% energy curtailment $ © Richard Perez, et al.

26 STORAGE LOAD SHAPING $ $ OVERBUILDING & CURTAILMENT INTERCONNECTION

27 ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost ofCOST OF DELIVERING BASELOAD OUTPUT WITH PV IN CENTRAL US Source M. Perez, U. Columbia & IEA SHCP Task 8 Storage LCOE $1.12 Geographic dispersion USD/kWh Overbuild + curtail $0.71 USD1/W Demand-Side Mgmt. $0.28 $0.23 $0.18 ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost of < 8¢/kWh $0.08 © Marc Perez, et al.

28 ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost ofNEW THINKING ON [SOLAR] ELECTRIC REMUNERATION Currently we have marginal systems: NEM, VOST, auto-consumption Promoting customer ownership/decision-making Valued by avoided cost Implying, but not fostering strong enabling grid resources GRID REACTIVE PV PV growth ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost of < 8¢/kWh ? Grid GRID PRO-ACTIVE New supply-side solar remuneration based on: Cost of solar Cost of high penetration enablers Promotion of lowest cost systems © Richard Perez, et al.

29 End goal: < 8c/kWh all-inclusive firm electricity generation costWith a retail rate of ~ 12-15c/kWh, this leaves 4-7c/kWh for non-energy operations Grid operators decisions/management Larger scale systems Community solar ownership Smaller customer-sited units for emergency reliability Marginal remuneration NEM 30% FedITC 25% NYSITC NYS rebate $1/Watt New supply-side solar remuneration based on: Cost of solar Cost of high penetration enablers Promotion of lowest cost systems © Richard Perez, et al.

30 End goal: < 8c/kWh all-inclusive firm electricity generation costWith a retail rate of ~ 12-15c/kWh, this leaves 4-7c/kWh for non-energy operations Grid operators decisions/management Larger scale systems Community solar ownership Smaller customer-sited units for emergency reliability Grid operator-managed plant © Marc Perez, et al. Marginal remuneration NEM 30% FedITC 25% NYSITC NYS rebate $1/Watt New supply-side solar remuneration based on: Cost of solar Cost of high penetration enablers Promotion of lowest cost systems

31 End goal: < 8c/kWh all-inclusive firm electricity generation costBIG SOLAR

32 Coal Natural Gas Uranium Petroleum 32 32 32 Biomass solar WIND© Richard Perez © Richard Perez, et al. 32 32 32

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