1 Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of September 21, 2010
2 Bifurcation of Class & Culture underpin the success of Hugo Chavez Caracas: Modern & Western?
3 Caracas: Traditional & Poor
4 HUGO CHAVEZ CONSOLIDATES POWER Radicalization and class conflict 2001 Ley Habilitante 2002 (April)Coup attempt 2003 Massive protest marches 2004 (August) Chavez wins recall election
5 National Assembly of Venezuela following elections of December 2005 MVR: 139 diputados. Podemos: 20 diputados.Podemos Patria Para Todos: 5 diputados.Patria Para Todos Frente Popular Humanista: 5 diputados.Frente Popular Humanista Partido Comunista de Venezuela: 3 diputados.Partido Comunista de Venezuela Nuevo Camino Revolucionario: 2 diputados.Nuevo Camino Revolucionario Afiliación desconocida: 7 diputados. Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas
6 Presidential Election 2006 Hugo Chávez vs. Rosales Manual Rosales Red Tide takes Caracas Winner Hugo Chávez Party PSUVHugo Chávez PSUV Home state Barinas States carried 24 0Barinas Percentage of Popular Vote 62.84% 36.90%
7 Chávez forms PSUV On 18 December 2006 – Electoral Council informed of intention to disband the Fifth Republic MovementFifth Republic Movement Between 29 April and 10 June 2007 a total of 5,669,305 people joined the party, Represented the 80% of the chavista vote of 2006 Founding Congress PSUV 12 February 2008
8 Leaders of PSUV Celia Flores 1 st Vice-President Adan Chavez Diosdado Cabello
9 abolish presidential term limits, allowing for indefinite re-election of the president (not allowed for any other political post),presidentialterm limits expand social security benefits to workers in the informal economy, informal economy end the autonomy of the central bank, giving control to the president, and place the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves,central bank prohibit large land estates, while "allowing the state to provisionally occupy property reduce the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours and reduce the workday from eight to six hours, lower the voting age from 18 to 16, increase the presidential term from six to seven years reorganize the country's administrative districts allow the president to control elected state governors and mayors by an unelected “popular power” dependent on the presidency, [19]state governors [19], allow the president to declare an unlimited state of emergency, prohibit foreign funding for political associations. allow public funding for political associations. ban discrimination based on sexual orientation. [20]sexual orientation [20]
10 Constitutional referendum 2 December, 2007 Results Yes (4,379,392) 49.29 No (4,504,354) 50.70 ( Por Ahora)
11 Regional elections: November 23 rd, 2008 Governors PSUV wins 17 out of 22 Mayors PSUV wins mayoralties in 80 % of municipios Opposition Success Consequential (43 % population in states with opposition governors Governor of Zulia Governor of Miranda Governor of Tachira Governor of Carabobo Turnout 65% Alcalde Mayor of Caracas Alcalde of Maracaibo
12 Dist. Metr. Miranda Aragua Cojedes Carabobo Guárico Apure Falcón Lara Portuguesa Yaracuy Zulia Barinas Mérida Táchira Trujillo Anzoátegui Monagas Sucre Nueva Esparta Bolívar Delta Amacuro Amazonas.. Morel Rodríguez Enrique Capriles R (PJ) Antonio Ledezma (ABP/ AD) Henrique Salas R. (PV) Pablo Pérez (UNT) Cesar Pérez Vivas (COPEI) The opposition leadership in the Regions
13 Abolishing Term Limits Referendum 15 February 2009 Widespread opposition when abolition of term limits applied only to president Gained support when extended to all elected offices Strengthen Chávez personal power Results Votes Percentage Yes (54.5%) 6,310,482
14 the 2010 National Assembly ELECTIONS
15 Composition of the National Assembly of Venezuela January 2010 PSUV: 139 diputados.PSUV Podemos: 20 diputados. Patria Para Todos: 5 diputados.Patria Para Todos Frente Popular Humanista: 5 diputados.Frente Popular Humanista Partido Comunista de Venezuela: 3 diputados.Partido Comunista de Venezuela Nuevo Camino Revolucionario: 2 diputados.Nuevo Camino Revolucionario Afiliación desconocida: 7 diputados. Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas
16 Dist. Metr. Estado Miranda Aragua Cojedes Carabobo Guárico Apure Falcón Lara Portuguesa Yaracuy Zulia Barinas Mérida Táchira Trujillo Anzoátegui Monagas Sucre Nueva Esparta Bolívar Delta Amacuro Amazonas.. Dependencias Federales In favor of the Government In favor of the Opposition < 5,0 < 5,0 5,1 - 10,0 5,1 - 10,0 10,1 - 15,0 10,1 - 15,0 15,1 - 20,0 20,1 - 30,0 30,1 or more Difference expressed in percentage points Strengths of the Opposition and the Government ( after 15F) Opposition strength is in urban centers of medium to high population density. The government shows to be strong in less urban areas with low to medium population density.
17 National Assembly Election (perspective immediately following 15 February, 2009) If the Government and opponents preserve the number of votes obtained in 15F, under the then prevailing electoral law (mixed single member district proportional distribution of seats) the National Assembly would have been... Opposition members (69)* Government members (95)* None of the Parties obtains a super majority (112 seats) it would have been necessary to open spaces of negotiation for approving: Enabling laws. Organic Laws. * Does not include indigenous members
18 Following modification of the Organic Law on Electoral Processes : where the new electoral regulations decrease number of seats allocated by proportional distribution, the situation expected would be different (keeping as a basis of calculation the results of 15F) … Opposition members (48)* Government members (116)* The Government Party obtains the super majority and can approve: Enabling laws Organic Laws Spaces of discussions are not needed for parliamentary negotiations. National Assembly Election Projected Outcome: January 2010 * Does not include indigenous members (3 members)
19 Chavismo 45% Oposición 42% 13% Consolidated Distribution Of Public Opinion Tendencia Actitudinal de los Neutrales 4% 5% 13% Distribution of Partisan Opinion: embedded dynamism Chavistas 40% Opositores 38% Neutrales 22% Classical Distribution “Chavistas, Opositores y Neutrales” KELLER y Asoc.: Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública, n = 1.200, 2do. Trimestre de 2008 Chavistas acríticos o que comparten las iniciativas del oficialismo Chavistas críticos que no comparten las iniciativas del oficialismo Neutrales “puros” Opositores Blandos In Depth Distribution 16% 38% 13% 29% 4% Opositores Duros
20 Mesa de la Unidad : coordination to Maximize Opposition Representation in the National Assembly Un Nuevo Tiempo Center-left/Social Democratic Core support in Zulia Manuel Rosales in exile Primero Justicia Center-right Elected 5 members to National Assembly in 2000 Core support – middle class of Caracas Julio Borges Proyecto Venezuela Centerist Core support in Carabobo Henrique Salas Feo From the (Punto Fijo) regime Podemos Acción Democrática COPEI
21 Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2010 In Play: All 165 seats to the National AssemblyNational Assembly Turnout66.45% Majority party Minority party Third party Party PSUVMUDPPT Last election (2005) 13965 Seats won (2010) 96642 Seat change -43+583 Popular vote 5,451,4225,334,309354,677 Percentage 48.20%47.17%3.14% Fourth partyFifth partySixth party Party FPHPCVIndependent Last election 539
22 Steps THAT Chávez and opposition officials can take to address escalating crime, economic, and infra-structure problems?
23 To understand the actions that the government may adopt in the economic area in 2010/2011 it is important to ask: 1.- How long will the crisis last? 2.- What funds are available to tackle it at lowest cost?
24 SOURCE: OPEC, Reuters Average Annual Price of Oil Barrel OIL PRICES: View Before 2011 Outbreak of Unrest in Arab World Projections Venezuelan basket Reuters regularly asks about 30 oil analysts for their forecasts of the oil price. SOURCE: Reuters Projections WTI
25 What would be the government’s room for maneuver? Cash FlowReserves and fundsFixed Assets US$42 billion oil revenue. US$35.9 billion tax revenue. TOTAL US$ 77.90 billion US$29.93 billion international reserves + FEM. US$16.00 billion FONDEN. US$6.00 billion Chinese fund. US$5.00 billion other funds. TOTAL US$56.93 billion US$9.50 billion CITGO (Source: New York Times).
26 What to expect in economics (2011) Delays in the real economical adjustments Decreases in public investments Imports hierarchy: more inflation Mistrust of the private sector and banking Intense monitoring of the supply issues
27 U.S. Dependence on foreign Petroleum :Chavez’s Salvation? U.S. imports Total crude oil imports averaged 9,069 thousand barrels per day in January, 2011 951,000 barrels per day: Venezuela provides to USA 2011: Price on oil increases Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (May 2011 delivery) is traded at 107.29 USD Venezuelan oil (April 2011), $100 barrel Unrest in Arab World China/India rising demand
28 What to expect in politics (2011-12) Popular Opposition Candidates Disqualified Throttling of remaining independent press New Restrictions on Freedom of Speech? Replacement of National Assembly with Communal Assembly? Oswaldo Alvarez Paz (jailed for speaking his mind)