1 CICERO in cooperation with Fudan, Jiaotong, Tsinghua, TERILarge Developing Economies: Current and future potential contributions to climate change CICERO in cooperation with Fudan, Jiaotong, Tsinghua, TERI China, India Brazil: Key role in climate development and climate policy. 2010: China 30 per cent……Indiqa 6 per cent of global CO2 emissions.

2 Large Developing Economies: Current and future potential contributions to climate changeScenarios for economic development and emissions Improve methods for macroeconomic analysis of climate policy and poverty Improve knowledge on use of energy in households. Scenarios , development and change in global mean temperature –the OSLO G2M2 climate model Methods must reflect essential structures related to income distribution Our knowledge abour drivers behind energy use by HH is not good enough These are building blocks for a more integrated approach to studies of climate policy and income distribution

3 Scenarios for economic growth and emissionsA broader selection of greenhouse gases and aerosols (particles) Economy/energy models must include more than fossil fuels and CO2 emisions Recent research has extended the list of chemical components affecting global climate – Long lived gases (CO2) Short lived gases/particles BC – SOOT, heats ….OC cools. BC per cent of global temperature increase - To reduce BC has no lasting mitigation on climate, but is an important option for climate impact modification. BC, OC related to diesel and coal combustion, but also to use of firewood in households, _ above all in developing countries Brings the climate mitigation analysis closer to development issues. Woodfuel long neclected in much of energy and emissions analysis – non-commercial, regarded as C-neutral.

4 China: How fast will 700 million people in the countryside replace traditional bioenergy with cleaner energy – fossil or renewable? Will they choose gas or coal? Will agriculture become a resource supplier to modern bioenergy production?

5 Develop methods for macroeconomic analysis of climate policy and poverty reductionThe rural economy must be properly represented - Source of emissions related to land use, animals and energy use included Uneven economic growth between cities and the countryside Structural changes in the Chinese economy affect rural economy and climate emissions WORK MIGRATION..

6 Rural-urban migrationThe largest migration in history 230 million farmers in the cities Floating population – an integrated part of the rurally based family

7 Work migrants Middle generation work in the citiesSimple life, high saving Send money to their families Return to their home village Construction, services, street vendors A vital part of the urban AND the rural economy.

8 In the village Elderly and children remainReduced effort in food production? More time to collect biomass Even if income increase and cash is available from work migrants, the traditional use of fuelwood might be preferred – it is after all almost free… Less insentives for improved stoves.

9 Our activities Household surveys of rural energy production and useHousehold survey of energy use and living standard among floating population in Shanghai Study the role of urban-rural relationship in climate policy and poverty reduction Scenarios for emissions and urban-rural income distribution towards the next decades Effect of policies for climate and poverty reduction on globale mean temperature .

10 train is moving…The future..The current eonomic cirisis in many countries relates to income distribution…what will policies achieve, and how to combine climate policy and

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18 Household surveys Energy production and use, Insentives among rural households Cooperation with Jiaotong university. Energy consumption, floating population in Shanghai (with Fudan univ.)

19 Population growth and climateInkludere de nyeste befolkningsprognosene i vekstbaner for Kinas økonomi Modellere arbeidsmigrasjon og få fram sammenheng klimapolitikk –fordeling by-land Befolkningsvekst basert på folketellingen 2010 – Fudan sterk på demografi –enorme endringer i Kinas befolkningssammensetning – vil også påvirke konsum - og energibruk.

20 Klimaendringer i Kina: Virkninger på matproduksjonMatvarepriser, lønnskostnader Økonomiske konsekvenser Samarbeid med Chinese Academy of Science Mindre behov for forbedrede ovner….

21 Klimapolitiske analyser med relevans for utviklingsland