1 Developing Policy and Programs with a Theory of ChangeAdolescent Development H236 MARCH 23, 2016
2 Moving from Research to ApplicationBeginning with an Outcome: Base rates (widespread), prevalence (who have ever had it), and incidence (new cases) Effect Sources of the developmental outcome Characteristics of Individual/family Characteristics of the environment Particular combinations of individual and environment (and technology) Context and etiology of the outcome Develop a “Small Theory” or “Theory of Change” to address outcome
3 Theory of Change Nonprofit worldPublic Health & Community Psychology Prevention: avoiding all or part of an etiological chain before it arises Intervention: stopping, slowing, or reversing a process that is already underway Logic Model: Outcome, Predictor, Mediator and Moderator.
4 Mediator A mediator accounts for or explains (at least partially) the relation between a predictor and a criterion. Mediators answer the questions of “how” or “why” a predictor influences an outcome, often offering explanation of why a treatment produces a causal effect on the outcome. Mediator Outcome Predictor
5 Relational CommitmentMediator Mediator Relational Commitment Watching Pornography Infidelity Predictor Outcome
6 Mediator Mediator Loneliness Watching Pornography Predictor OutcomeLack of Supervision Watching Pornography Predictor Outcome
7 Moderator A moderator is a variable that affects the relation between a predictor and outcome. The effect of a predictor on the outcome depends on the level of the moderator. A moderator answers the questions of “when” or “for whom” a given relation exists. Moderator Outcome Predictor
8 Moderator Mediator Loneliness Watching Pornography Predictor OutcomeLack of Supervision Watching Pornography Predictor Outcome Male Moderator
9 Unrestricted internet accessModerator Mediator Unrestricted internet access Lack of Supervision Watching Pornography Predictor Outcome Loneliness Moderator
10 Summary Generative Researching Identifying the OutcomeExploring etiology and contextual influences Constructing (and if necessary reconstructing) a logical modal that explains an outcome’s etiology.
11 Additional Resources:On Small Theory: Karazsia, B. T., Berlin, K. S., Armstrong, B., Janicke, D. M., & Darling, K. E. (2014). Integrating mediation and moderation to advance theory development and testing. Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 39(2), 163–173 Interventions: Early Alliance: Dumas, J. E., Prinz, R. J., Smith, E. P. & Laughlin, J. (1999). The EARLY ALLIANCE prevention trial: An integrated set of interventions to promote competence and reduce risk for conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure. Clinical Child & Family Psychology Review, 2, New Beginnings: Wolchik, S. A., Sandler, I. N., Millsap, R. E. (2002). Six-year follow-up of preventive interventions for children of divorce: A randomized controlled trial. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, 288, (DOI: /jama )