1 EHESS/ Universidad de Guadalajara¿Una crisis para América Latina? ¿O una crisis para cada variedad de capitalismo? Ilan Bizberg Seminario BRICS EHESS/ Universidad de Guadalajara Chapala 6 y 7 de Junio 2017

2 1. Macroeconomic Variables

3 Fuente: Banco Mundial

4

5

6 Fuente: OIT

7 Fuente: OIT

8 2. Social Policies

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10

11

12

13 Fuente: OIT. [No hay datos para Bolivia]

14 Fuente: OIT

15 3. Social Consequences

16 Source: Marco Stampini, Marcos Robre, Mayra Sáenz, Pablo Ibarrarán, Nadin Medellín, "Pobreza, vulnerabilidad y la clase media en América Latina", Documento de trabajo del BID no. 591, IDB, May 2015.

17 Source: Marco Stampini, Marcos Robre, Mayra Sáenz, Pablo Ibarrarán, Nadin Medellín, "Pobreza, vulnerabilidad y la clase media en América Latina", Documento de trabajo del BID no. 591, IDB, May 2015.

18 Fuente: Banco Mundial

19 Participación salarial respecto al PIB 1950-2010Fuente: Alarco Tosoni, Germán, Participación salarial y crecimiento económico en América Latina, , Revista Cepal, no. 113, 2014.

20

21 4. Varieties of Capitalism, formalisation.

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23 State Profits Salaries Market Diversity of capitalisms Rentier/liberal Rentier/redistributve Profits Social-developmentism Salaries International subcontracting Market

24 State Profits Wages Diversity of capitalismsInternational subcontracting Rentier/distributive Profits Wages Social-developmentism

25 Dominant bloc and type of DemocracyState Dominant bloc and type of Democracy 3.Rentier Distributive 1- International out-sourcing 2.Rentier Liberal profits wages 4. Socio-developmentism Movementist/ participatory Democracy Partidocracy Oligarchic/oligopolistic regime Strong Civil society.

26 Dominant Bloc and Type of DemocracyInternational outsourcing Socio-developmentist Oligarchic Regime: State, multinationals, large national entrepreneurs nationaux, financial capital. State arbitration between oligarchies and civil society: Etat, classes moyennes, syndicats, en compromis avec les agro exportateurs et capitalim financier. Partitocracy: Institutionalized Party system; weak representativity and weak civil society. Participatory Democracy: Institutionalized Party system; strong representativity; strong civil society

27 4. Two crises for two different types of capitalism

28 Sequence of the Brazilian crisisPrice reduction of commodities Reduction of the ressources of the rent Lowering of the interest rates/restriction to capital movement Crisis of the wage/profit compromise Loss of support social bases Economic crisis Deceleration of the world economy Loss of support financial interests Austerity measures Breaking up of the political coalition Lava Jato

29 Diagram1: The Mexican Model: interna tional outsourcingState Diagram1: The Mexican Model: interna tional outsourcing All kinds of incentives Deregulation or regulation favorable To the firms. Oligopolies, Monopolies. Firm Market Control of the State. Low pressure of unions, etc. Low negotiation, low salaries, low qualification. Informality, flexibility, weak sociaol Protection/high commodification Unions

30 Sequence of the Mexican “rampant” crisisExternal mercantilist/protectionist measures Reduction of the competitive advantages of the model Deceleration of the private investments Lower growth Increase of un-emlployment and subemployement ¿Open Crisis? Insecurity Low price of oil exports Lower State ressources Return of migrants