1 ELECTORAL PREFERENCES MEXICO 2006 Nobody’s Unpredictable NATIONAL SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY IPSOS-BIMSA FROM SEPTEMBER 2003-NOVEMBER 2005

2 2 2 POLL OF POLLS October-November 2006

3 3 3 VOTE CHOICE 2006 KEY VARIABLES VOTE CHOICE 2006

4 4 4 1.- CANDIDATES’ POPULARITY

5 5 5 NAME RECOGNITION AMLO, ROBERTO MADRAZO & FELIPE CALDERÓN

6 6 6 IMAGE OF FELIPE CALDERÓN Do you have a positive or negative opinion about FELIPE CALDERÓN?. (%) POSITIVE OPINIONS DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

7 7 7 IMAGE OF ROBERTO MADRAZO Do you have a positive or negative opinion about ROBERTO MADRAZO? (%) DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

8 8 8 IMAGE OF ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR Do you have a positive or negative opinion about ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR? (%) DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

9 9 9 2.- PARTISANSHIP

10 10 PARTY IDENTIFICATION (%)

11 11 NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC ELECTORAL CHOICE BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION (% NOVEMBER 2005) FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR PANISTASPRIÍSTASPERREDISTASINDEPENDIENTES Non response and support for others are not shown

12 12 PARTISAN COHESION IN NOV. 2005 FELIPE CALDERÓN IS PAN`S CANDIDATE.

13 13 ELECTORAL SCENARIO SCENARIO: ALL PARTIES WITH THE SAME LEVEL OF PARTY COHESION

14 14 3.- INDEPENDENTS

15 15 PARTY IDENTIFICATION

16 16 INDEPENDENTS IN NOV. 2005 FELIPE CALDERÓN IS PAN’S CANDIDATE ELECTORAL PREFERENCES OF INDEPENDENTS DK/NA and support for others are not shown VIDEOSCANDALS IMPEACHMENT PROCESS

17 17 4.- PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

18 18 NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR APPROVE A LOT SOMEWHAT APPROVE NEUTRAL SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE DISAPPROVE A LOT PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL AND PARTISAN CHOICE

19 19 PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC DK/NA ARE NOT SHOWN

20 20 5.- STATE OF THE ECONOMY

21 21 NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC ECONOMY HAS IMPROVEDSTAYS THE SAMEECONOMY HAS WORSENED NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN COMPARISON TO ONE YEAR AGO AND PARTISAN CHOICE

22 22 STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN COMPARISON TO ONE YEAR AGO NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC DK/NA ARE NOT SHOWN

23 23 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL POR PARTIDO CONCLUSIONS

24 24 POPULARITY ?X. PARTISANSHIP..X INDEPENDENTS X?X?X. PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL.XX STATE OF THE ECONOMY ??? PERSPECTIVAS DE LOS CANDIDATOS