1 Emerging Scenario and Challenges for Agricultural ResearchN H Rao “The measure of intelligence is the ability to change”

2 Outline Emerging agricultural scenarioStrategic challenges of agricultural research Changing structure of research and investments ICAR response - Vision2050, Mission, Strategy Scientist response

3 Determinants of R&D in NARSNational strategic priorities: Food and nutrition security for a growing economy Inclusive growth through value addition – increasing farmer share of value in a growing market driven economy Sustainability of natural resources for future generations Climate change – climate smart agriculture Changing structure of Agricultural R&D Emerging sciences/technologies Increasing private sector role & changing IP ownership structure Societal expectations of good governance

4 Scenario: Agriculture in Indian economy - growth and structureXII Plan Year GDP AGDP GDP : ; ~ Rs 136 lakh crores or US$ 2.1 trillion AGDP (16%) = Rs 22 lakh crores; US $ 320 bn) Share of AGDP: Livestock including fisheries= 26%; Horticulture = 33% Agribusiness: 2 x AGDP Per capita income: ~ Rs 93,231 (US$ 1581; ~PPP $ 6000) 49 % workforce in agriculture ( ) Small holdings: average farm size 1.16 ha (half of 1975); > 137 million holdings; 60% rainfed – monsoon dependence limited land and water resources; > 60% agricultural land at risk of degradation Other constraints: post harvest & market infrastructure, climate risk; market risk, technology /knowledge access (Fig Source: GAP Report, 2014)

5 Scenario: Food security“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 1996) Research Challenge: 195 million hungry in India - Ranked 97 of 118 in global hunger index Produce more food > 2 to 4 times for various commodities by 2050 Increase access to food: National Food Security Act (right to food) Fig Source: FAO, 2015

6 Scenario : rising population and incomesGrowing population and rapidly rising middle class (<10% in 2015 to >75% by 2030) Middle class: households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person in PPP terms Research Challenge: More food of higher quality, safety, diversity: 50-60% of rising demand from rising population 40-50% of rising demand from rising incomes including consumer preferences (taste, quality, health, safety, well being) Fig Source: Global Harvest – GAP report, 2014

7 Scenario: the natural resource base to 20502010 2050 Net area sown (mha) 141.4 142.6 Cropping intensity 138.5 161.0 Water demand (BCM) 557.0 807.0 Soil degradation - saline/alkaline/acidic/ waterlogged/Water/wind erosion (mha) 120 .0 Energy share (%) ~ 20% 5% Workforce share 53% 27% Research Challenge: Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture (CSA)– increasing productivities while enhancing natural capital Source: Ramesh Chand, 2012

8 Scenario: the agricultural value chainValue is created and accumulated from one link to next in the agri- value chain Diversity of players at each link: input companies; farmers; traders, processors, retailers Range of players at each link – public, private, small to multinational Issues: Aggregation from small farms Price discovery Risk Machinery Insurance Research Challenge: Increasing total value created in the agri-value chain Inclusive growth through increasing farmer share of value

9 Scenario: Climate change impacts on agricultureDefinition: change in state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties, that persists for an extended period food system contributes 19%– 29% of emissions Of this: agricultural production 80%–86% Impacts food security through lower crop productivity, higher prices, higher risk Research Challenge: Adaptation to climate change and mitigation (reduction of GHG emissions) Addressing Increasing risk from rising extremes of T and P Fig Source : IPCC, 2001

10 Strategic challenges of agricultural researchUnlimited opportunities across the value chain to create value for farmer, consumer, business, society

11 Scenario: Extension - access and reliability of knowledge transferPublic extension is the main source of authenticated knowledge multiple sources of information but limited access (~40%) Major sources: input dealers, aggregators, credit agencies and other farmers (~17%) Public extension sources: < 10% Private sector initiatives in leveraging ICTs: eChoupal: 4 million farmers RML: 2 million farmers Monsanto Farm Agvisory services: 1 million farmers Coromandel Gromor webinars: 2 million farmers Research challenge: Leverage ICTs for tailored, timely, authenticated agricultural information and knowledge delivery to farmers Fig Source: BS Sontakki, NAARM (final report of L&CB project), Ferroni (2011)

12 Emerging opportunity: Digital India – Infrastructure to increase farmer access to Agricultural Knowledge Services Rural mobile internet use growing from less than a million in 2010 to 25 million people in OFN connectivity up to Block level by 2011 BBNL formed in to extend BB connectivity to GPs (250000) – PPP model with TSPs Pilot studies in 3 States, 20 GPs (2012) for BMPs Target: access at GPs by Dec 2017 <500 to >3000 households per GP Fig Source: BBNL

13 Scenario: emerging sciences and convergenceConvergence of molecular biology, nanotechnology, sensor technologies, imaging technologies, computer science, robotics, AI, mechanization, simulation, big data analytics on a single platform new technologies are enabling in nature integrate into all sciences including agricultural sciences enable in-depth understanding of agriculture from sub cellular to system level Emerging era of big data in agriculture: Genomics, HTPP (genome editing) Climate and remote sensing data at various scales and frequencies Climate model projections Natural resources data – farm/pixel to larger scales Socioeconomic – farmer/household/consumer behaviours Include heterogeneity to enable predictability and prescriptive approaches Most initiatives from private sector Research challenge: Include heterogeneity of data, farms, consumer behaviours for higher predictability and prescriptive knowledge delivery

14 Field View: Monsanto/Climate Corporation Digital Agricultural Platform on 75 million acresVariable rate NPK based on management zones In-season fertility & disease management Yield monitoring advances

15 Scenario - Public Research InvestmentPublic Investment Global (2008): US $ 31.7 b; India’s share: 7%; ICAR ~ 60% India - Cost to Country of a Professor as ratio of per capita GDP is one of the highest in the world (DST, Ramasamy, 2014) Figs source : ASTI Global report, 2012; IFPRI-NAARM, 2016

16 Scenario: Private Investment (Input sector)R&D : 5-15% of sales Source: USDA, 2013)

17 Nature of private investment in research; example of biotechnologyUS $ million Company Crop protection Seed/ biotechnology Total (R&D as % of sales) Bayer 730 110 840 (11%) Syngenta 500 310 810 (11%) Monsanto 40 490 530 (10%) Pioneer 215 312 527 (11%) BASF 340 93 433 (10%) CGIAR - 425 ICAR (2014) ~ 350 R in R&D 126 122 80 79 51 257 Note: relatively high share of D in R&D Adapted from : Spielman, 2007 and K Sharma, 2014

18 Scenario: Changing structure of agricultural research investmentsAgricultural Research Investments and organization are increasingly driven by: Changing structure of demand : consumer preferences of rising middle class need to leverage the agricultural value chain in favour of the farmer and consumer Increasing capacity of science: To include greater heterogeneity (across farms, farmers, climate, natural resources, crops, management strategies, and other economic and environmental variables) For higher predictability and more prescriptive agricultural technologies and management practices To expand reach of technology Changing Research systems structure: NARS to NAIS Source: IFPRI, 2015; GAP Report, 2014; KPMG, 2013

19 Scenario: ICAR’s response - changing priorities & organizational transformationsInnovation systems - market orientation through PPP NAIP (World Bank support) Production-consumption systems (agri-value chains) Sustainable livelihoods ICTs; knowledge management Capacity building IP policies; TM, BPD, TBI, etc Climate resilience (initiated) ICAR time line Agroecosystems orientation of research NATP (World Bank support); KVKs; ATMAs; On farm research & NRM to bridge yield gaps Consolidation of GR & New institutions; focus on extension NARP (World Bank support for research infrastructure) KVKs / Commodity Missions / Private seed industry Commodities orientation of research (GR phase) AICRPs on crops (international support) Institutional consolidation; IARI as DU; SAUs; public seed industry 1975 ARS formed as a National Service

20 Research Outputs - publicationsBUT: Acceptance rate : <20% & declining; Global: ~ 40% lowest 3 in world Global share of India’s research publications in agricultural sciences, Share of citations India: %; papers not cited even once: 61% China: 15% USA: % Source: Sagar et al 2015; IFPRI-NAARM 2016, DST, 2015

21 Research Outputs - patentsICAR patents : 42 Source: Ankita, etal, 2015 (AERR)

22 Research outputs: Products – declining share of public research in crop hybridsSource; IFPRI (India), 2014; Pal et al, 2014

23 Research outcome 1960-2014 Food grain production 51 to 265 mt (5.5X)Horticultural production 268 mt (7X) Milk production 17 to 136 mt (9X; World No. 1) Fish production 0.75 to 10 mt (12X) Egg production 27 times Poverty and hunger percentages more than halved BUT ……. Yields below world average for most crops Only 3 major crops have yields > 1 ton/ha Yield of pulses, oilseeds, cotton 0.5 to 1 ton/ha Declining input use efficiencies Deteriorating soil health and environment Limited value addition for farmer in non-MSP crops

24 ICAR 2050 Vision Lead India towards sustainable food, nutritional, environmental and livelihood security through agricultural research and education Mission Harness the power of science and innovation for food security, food safety, farmer prosperity and enhance natural resources base to promote inclusive growth and sustainable development

25 ICAR 2050 –Strategic Focus Research/education/Technology transfer‘farmer first’ – add value at farm level to increase farmer share of consumer value Sustainable intensification of agriculture generate fundamental knowledge and novel technologies that enhance productivities, efficiencies and natural capital (focus on systems & knowledge intensive approaches) Build resilience to stresses (biotic/abiotic) Build resilience to climate change Create platforms for extension, education and entrepreneurship

26 ICAR 2050: Strategic Focus (contd..)Organizational change (structures, systems and culture): accelerate innovation: transform NARS to a more pluralistic National Agricultural Innovation System foster linkages : PPP, national, international create globally competitive human resources - competencies based HR planning and capability building educate the next generation of agricultural scientists foster rural entrepreneurship (ARYA; Agribusiness Incubators) build transparent performance and accountability systems

27 New directions in science and organizationsScientific (integration) Bio sciences: Genome editing (crop improvement, higher basic knowledge of biology of crop processes) Production agriculture : sensors, higher, core agricultural sciences; knowledge platforms (basis for CSA; insurance, risk management, - nucleus for Tech start-ups Computers and data analytics - integrate biosciences and production science for higher predictability, and more localized, prescriptive technologies and practices at farm level Social sciences/business: demand and behavioural assessments for identifying sources of value, models for inclusion Private sector reorganization for competitive advantage: Pre genome editing Tech start-ups: Monsanto from Agribiotech company to Knowledge company by acquiring Climate Corporation and other start-up analytics firms Post genome editing Tech start-ups: Bayer-Monsanto; Dow-Dupont; Syngenta-ChemChina

28 Rothamstead: to be a world leading biosciences research centre forsustainable agriculture

29 Scientist response Become a ‘T-shaped’ Scientist’: develop competencies in: understanding and integrating developments in other agricultural sciences, basic sciences, social sciences and engineering sciences into your research and teaching understanding developments in farming and business sectors Strategic thinking Build stamina, patience and skills to engage in interdisciplinary relationships, advocacy, and negotiation for the long and enriching journey in the science and the organization Focus on excellence and the long term (not only on near-term metrics) - expect more from yourselves

30 “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything”- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winning economist Thank you