1 Energy and Sustainability Ernst Ulrich v. WeizsäckerWinter term 2015/16 Stefan Pauliuk Jürgen Huss Philipp Thapa Ernst Ulrich v. Weizsäcker

2 Structure of today‘s teaching unitsToday's topic: Energy and Sustainability: The interdisciplinary systems approach Part I: 9:00-10:00: Why sustainability and how to get there? (lecture) Part II: 10:15-11:00: Basic elements of interdisciplinary systems theory (interactive lecture) Part III: 11:15-12:00: Thinking in systems: Practical application (interactive lecture) Afternoon: Homework

3 Part I: Why sustainability and how to get there?

4 The current UN sustainable development goals include everybody, everywhere.Each goal has specific targets to be achieved over the next 15 years. 169 targets in total.

5 Planetary boundaries: A safe operating space for humanity

6 Sustainability and sustainable developmentThe world’s population of 7 billion is likely to increase to 9 billion by The demand for diminishing natural resources is growing. Income gaps are widening. Sustainability calls for a decent standard of living for everyone today without compromising the needs of future generations.

7 Sustainability in other cultures: Native Americans"We are looking ahead , as is one of the first mandates given us as chiefs, to make sure and to make every decision that we make relate to the welfare and well-being of the seventh generation to come " "What about the seventh generation? Where are you taking them? What will they have?" Oren Lyons, Chief of the Onondaga Nation, in An Iroquois Perspective. Pp in ISBN “Indians walk softly and hurt the landscape hardly more than birds or squirrels.” John Muir Question: Does anybody know more about the relation of native Americans to nature? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luther_Standing_Bear

8 Sustainability in other cultures: Ancient ChinaThe core value of Chinese traditional culture could be conceived of as “peace is most precious (以和为贵 yi he wei gui)” or “harmony without uniformity (和而不同 he er bu tong)” “there is a rule for all the creatures to live and grow harmoniously on the earth (万物各得其和以生,各得 其养以成 wan wu ge de qi he yi sheng, ge de qi yang yi cheng)” Xunzi, Confucian scholar. Group discussion: Sustainability as chosen feature or necessity for survival in low-tech societies?

9 Sustainable forestry in pre-industrial Germany and JapanSustainable forestry was developed by different cultures in times of scarcity following excessive logging. ‘nachhaltende (!) Nutzung’ [der Wälder] ‘sustainable use’ [of forests] Hannß Carl von Carlowitz, Sylvicultura Oeconomica, Leipzig 1713

10 “Everything that needs to be said has already been said“Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.” André Gide True for sustainability?

11 From local to global environmental change: central concepts‘Dangerous interference with the climate system’ and ‘tipping points’: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch1s1-2-2.html ‘Resource depletion’ and ‘critical materials’ ‘Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere’ ‘Spaceman economy’ vs. ‘Cowboy economy’ (Boulding 1966): Open societies are characterized as "cowboy economies", the cowboy being symbolic of the illimitable plains and also associated with reckless, exploitative, romantic, and violent behavior. The closed economy of the future might similarly be called the "spaceman" economy, in which the earth has become a single spaceship, without unlimited reservoirs of anything, either for extraction or for pollution. ‘Anthropocene’: new epoch that began when humans started having significant impact on Earth’s biogeochemical cycles.

12 Sustainability by designPeople until the 1970ies did not know much about global climate change and coming state shifts of global ecosystems. But we do.  ‘[…] create a new reality and set of cultural structures by design.’ Interface to part I of the course (Environmental ethics) Sustainability by Design, J. Ehrenfeld , ISBN

13 Operationalizing sustainable developmentThe IPAT equation (Commoner, Ehrlich, and Holdren) (blackboard exercise) I = P ∙ A ∙ T I: Impacts on environment (e.g., GHG emissions) P: population A: per capita affluence T: technology level (emissions per unit of affluence) Numbers taken from Jackson, ‘Prosperity without growth’:

14 Absolute and relative decouplingRelative decoupling: Resource use grows slower than GDP, but still grows Absolute decoupling: Resources use declines over time

15 Examples for decoupling targetsCountry Pledged targets EU-27 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 Australia 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 United States In the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 China 40-45% reduction in CO2emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2005 level by 2020 India 20-25% reduction in emissions per unit of GDP (excluding agriculture sector) from 2005 level by 2020 Maldives Carbon neutrality by 2020 Q: Which one is absolute/relative?

16 Reducing GHG emissions to sustainable levels

17 This breakdown relates emissions to specific activities.

18 A wide range of sustainable development strategies

19 Matching ‘top-down’ targets with effects of ‘bottom-up’ strategies‘Stabilization triangle’ consists of many ‘stabilization wedges’, one for each strategy.  Instructive but simplified picture!

20 Why sustainable development strategiescannot be seen in isolation from each other: the life cycle perspective

21 Why sustainable development strategies cannot be seen in isolation from each other: rebound effects Rebound effect: Direct energy savings from more efficient technology are partly offset by increases in consumption. Types of rebounds: price effect (D, picture) income effect (I, picture) substitution effect (I) secondary effects (I) economy-wide (I) transformational effects (I)

22 Sustainable development requires a systems approach!Sustainability is a systems property.

23 Part II: Basic elements of interdisciplinary systems theory

24 List of terms and concepts in system scienceComplex autopoietic systems Biophysical and social sphere of causation Socio-ecological systems Environmental literacy Boundary objects and research paradigms Biophysical basis of society: structures and socioeconomic metabolism Sociometabolic regime and sociometabolic transition Industrial ecology Resilience Pressure state response

25 Complex autopoietic systemsA system is a set of interacting or interdependent component parts forming a whole. A complex system shows some of the following features: non-linear, chaotic, spontaneous order, feedback mechanisms, memory, adaptive capacity (complex adaptive systems) A complex autopoietic system is a complex system that is capable of reproducing and maintaining itself. Systems theory complements the natural and social sciences. The laws discovered by science apply to the elements of systems and to systems as a whole.  Discuss technical and non-technical examples of c.a.s. Maturana and Varela: Autopoiesis and Cognition: the Realization of the Living (1980 [1973]): ISBN

26 Biophysical and social spheres of causation (‘realities’) and the interdisciplinary approach to studying socioecological systems A socio-ecological system (SES) is a system of biophysical and social factors that are truly interlinked, interdependent, and that co-evolve. An SES consists of two distinct, but interconnected realties: The biophysical and the social reality. |  Global socio-ecological system | Physical sciences Geosciences Biosciences Sociel sciences Economics Fischer-Kowalski and Weisz, Advances in Human Ecology 1999, (8),

27 Environmental literacyEnvironmental literacy is the capability of the agents in a socio-ecological system “to appropriately read, utilize, and adapt to environmental information, resources, and system dynamics” (Scholz and Binder 2011). Even insects can use environmental information to modify their ecological niche, and so they can control the conditions for natural selection to some extent. Scholz and Binder (2011): Environmental literacy in science and society: from knowledge to decisions. ISBN

28 Boundary objects and research paradigms: Central concepts in interdisciplinary systems science In social sciences: A boundary object “is an analytic concept of those scientific objects, which both inhabit several intersecting social worlds [including different scientific fields, S.P.] and satisfy the informational requirements of each of them” (Star and Griesemer, 1989). People from different communities can agree that they are talking about the same boundary object, even though they are not actually thinking of the same thing. Examples: Maps, ‘Technology’, ‘Wealth’ ,… In natural sciences: In “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, Kuhn (1996 [1962]) defines a scientific paradigm as a group of “universally recognized scientific achievements that, for a time, provide model problems and solutions for a community of practitioners”. Paradigms often supersede each other, in which case they are not compatible. Examples: Atoms & Molecules, global warming, … “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, Kuhn (1996 [1962])

29 Discussion What are the differences and commonalities between boundary objects and paradigms? How can these concepts help to communicate with different experts and to navigate the interdisciplinary landscape? Flammarion, Camille (1888). L'atmosphère: météorologie populaire. Paris: Hachette. p. 163.

30 Society’s biophysical basisThe STRUCTURE of society’s biophys. basis: Human bodies Products in use (laptops, cars) Built environment (buildings, factories, infrastructure) The METABOLISM of society’s biophys. basis: all energy and material input and output and all biological and technical transformations to build up, maintain, and operate the structures

31 Socioeconomic metabolismSocioeconomic metabolism constitutes the self-reproduction and evolution of the biophysical structures of human society. It comprises those biophysical transformation processes, distribution processes, and flows, which are controlled by humans for their purposes. The biophysical structures of society (‘in use stocks’) and socioeconomic metabolism together form the biophysical basis of society.

32 Sociometabolic regime and sociometabolic transitionFollowing Sieferle (1997), scholars distinguish sociometabolic regimes, each characterized by a specific metabolic profile, that correspond to a set of impacts on the environment. These regimes are conceptualized as dynamic equilibria of SES; between them, transitions may occur. Sustainable future?

33 Industrial ecology: science to study sociometabolic transitionsIndustrial ecology is the study of the flows of materials and energy in industrial and consumer activities, of the effects of these flows on the environment, and of the influences of economic, political, regulatory, and social factors on the flow, use, and transformation of resources (White 1994).

34 Resilience of socioecological systems(Ecological) resilience is "the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks“. (Walker, Holling, et al.)

35 Pressure state response (PSR) fremeworkThe PSR framework lays out the basic relationships amongst: the pressures human society puts on the environment the resulting state or condition of the the response of society to these conditions to ease or prevent negative impacts resulting from the pressures

36 Part III: Thinking in systems: practical applications

37 The basics of quantitative systems analysisSystem boundary: Shows what processes are part of the system studied. System needs to be specified in space and time. Process: Element of a system were material or energy is transformed, stored, or distributed. Stock: Storage of material, products, or energy. A stock is always associated with a process. It is measured at a given point of time t. ‚snapshot‘ Flow: Transport of material products, or energy across the system. A flow always connects two processes or one process with the environment. It is measured over an interval [t1,t2].

38 System variables and parametersStocks, stock changes, and flows together form the system variables. Stocks: S1, S3. Stock changes: ΔS1, ΔS3. Flows: F01, F12, F20, F23, F31, F30 A parameter is an additional variable that couples different system variables through equations: For example: F23 = k ∙ F12 ΔS1 = 0.15 ∙ F12 ΔS3 = 0

39 Process and system balancesFor mass, energy, sometimes monetary values, the process and system-wide balance holds: Input – Output = Net Stock Change Process 1: F01 + F31 - F12 = ΔS1 Process 2: F12 - F23 - F20 = 0 Process 3: F23 - F31 - F30 = ΔS3 System: F01 - F20 - F30 = ΔS1 + ΔS3 For a fully quantified system: #System variables = #balance equations + #parameters + #Measurements

40 Multi-layer system descriptionsEnvironment  Humans 

41 Performance indicatorsA major advantage of an explicit system definition is the clear definition of performance indicators. Efficiency η = useful output / total input Process 2: η2 = F20 / F12 Process 1: η1 = F12 / F01 OR η1 = F12 / ( F01 + F31) System: ηS = F20 / F01 Emissions/waste intensity b = waste / useful output OR waste / total input

42 Performance indicators: Example for recycling

43 Exercise: Comparative life cycle assessmentResearch question: How big a share of renewable electricity does a counry need to reach break even between gasoline-powered and electric vehicles? Method: Explicit system definition, quantify flows, balances where possible. Assume two types of electricity supply: renewables (with 0 g CO2 /kWh), and lignite- based electricity (with 1000 g CO2 /kWh). More data: Energy need of cars: 0.7 MJ/km (el. veh.), 2.2 MJ/km (gasoline), CO2 – Intensity of gasoline 14 MJ/kg CO2, CO2 – Intensity of gasoline supply: 10g CO2 /MJ of gasoline, Performance indicators: CO2 per km driven

44 Recommended homework I: ReadingI) Read more about the ‘cowboy’ and ‘spaceman’ economies.

45 Recommended homework II: Reading and questionsII) Read more about the systems approach to climate change mitigation: “The Role of In-Use Stocks in the Social Metabolism and in Climate Change Mitigation” Stefan Pauliuk and Daniel B. Müller, Global Environmental Change, Volume 24 (2014), pages III) Questions to answer (write words each) i) Explain the seven roles that in-use stocks play in socioeconomic metabolism in your own words ii) What types of in-use stocks matter for the transition to renewable energy technologies? iii) Try to make a systematic overview of emissions reductions strategies related to renewable energy technologies and allocate them in the system of Fig. 1. iv) What is the principle ‘contraction and convergence’ about?