1 EU/US as Mediators in Bosnia A Comparative Case StudyReina Zenelaj Nimet Beriker Emre Hatipoglu Sabanci University, Istanbul IACM Stellenbosch, SA

2 Overview Aim: What determines mediation success/failure?Focused comparison (Bosnia 2009): EU/US mediation attempt Turkish mediation attempt Partial mediation combined with facilitative strategies produced more tangible outcomes.

3 The study's contributionFocuses on mediation in post-conflict environment. Examines an interesting case: coterminious mediation attempts in Bosnia. A less traveled road: combining mediator bias with strategy employed.

4 Bosnia: A post-conflict environmentPost-Dayton: Institutional paralysis Legitimacy problem Risk of reemergence and spill-over of conflict in the region. Both mediations attempts' aim: To maintain Bosnia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

5 Dependent Variable: Success in mediationA plethora of definitions for mediation success; e.g., Achieving fairness, efficiency Clarifying issues Expanding the range of options Reestablishing trust, etc. Success operationalized as parties formally committing to (signing) an agreement.

6 Main explanatory variables: Partiality and strategyCharacteristics of the party Nature of the dispute Characteristics of the mediator Mediation strategies Bercovitch & Houston (2000) Processes Outcome Context

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8 Mediation in a post-conflict environmentHypothesis 1: Partial mediators are likely to be more successful Hypothesis 2: Facilititative strategies are likely to be more effective

9 Two attempts, one country: BosniaMost similar systems design (Mill 1843)

10 Conclusion Partiality works in post-conflict mediationFace saving to the closer party Trust: big brother involved Facilitation works in post-conflict mediation Establishes trust among the parties.