1 European Parliament, 30th March 2017The employment and social situation in the USA in an increasingly digitalised labour market European Parliament, 30th March 2017 Professor Chris Forde Professor Mark Stuart

2 Background US ECONOMY Changes in labour market over last decade – but how much? Digitalisation Recession and recovery Assessing the Obama administration and looking forward

3 Key questions about US labour marketHow much has changed over the last decade? Effects of recession and recovery? How is the labour market regulated: Federal versus state? What forms of social protection are in place? Similarities and differences with EU?

4 Participation and employment ratesLong-term falls. Why? ‘Discouraged workers’? Ageing workforce? Recession effects Disability rises Delayed retirement/increases in FT education

5 Participation rates 2000-2016, USA

6 The rate of unemployment in the USA

7 Youth unemployment in the USA, 2004-2017

8 Long-term unemployment in the USA, 2016

9 Responses to the recessionUnemployment Insurance length extended American Recovery and Reconstruction Act (ARRA) - training Strong recovery? Underlying problems Digitalisation programmes – apprenticeships; high-tech training

10 Self-employment ?

11 Employment forms Part-time employment Temporary help employmentSelf-employment: BLS data: Bespoke surveys: Alternative workforce: 14.2m in 2005 to 23.6m in 2015. 0.5% working through online intermediary

12 Growth in employment: key sectors

13 Nominal wage growth, USA, 2008-2016

14 Wage inequality in the USA, 1979-2014

15 Employment protectionMore lightly regulated than EU At-will employment is common law Only ratified to ILO Conventions Federal labor law plus some state level legislation

16 Key elements of labour market protection in USNo statutory rights to paid holidays Termination of contracts without notice Equal treatment legislation National Labor Relations Act and Board Union representation and ‘right to work’

17 Social protection: a laissez-faire approachEarned Income Tax Credit: ‘the nation’s largest anti- poverty programme’ (Reich, 2015). Social Security Act: old-age benefits Unemployment insurance

18 Healthcare protection/insuranceUSA: ‘hybrid’ system Workplace based insurance Gaps in coverage: 11% of population

19 The Affordable Care ActFrom January 2014, ‘individual mandate’ to have health insurance 10 million more covered Medicaid expansion at state level Trump - changes?

20 State level protection: the Minimum WageFederal rate = $7.25. Value fallen in real terms Most states set own minimum wage The highest rate $11.5 Campaigns for $15 per hour

21 Thank you Any questions?