1 European Union: Perspectives on Climate ChangeUlrich Kamp Department of Geography European Union: Perspectives on Climate Change

2 Outline What is the European Union?Environmental Awareness in the European Union European Union GHG Emissions The European Union and Climate Change The U.S. in the View of Europe Taking Sustainability Seriously

3 Part 1 What is the European Union?

4 What is the European Union?A unique economic and political partnership between 27 democratic European countries with 495 million citizens.

5 Enough! The “Pre-History” of the European Union

6 History of the European Union: A peaceful Europe – the beginnings of cooperation : The “Swinging Sixties” – a period of economic growth : A growing community – the first enlargement : The changing face of Europe – the fall of the Berlin Wall : A Europe without frontiers 2000-today: A decade of further expansion

7 History of the European Union From 6 to 27

8 EU Legislation the European Parliament(representing the people of Europe) the Council of the European Union (representing national governments) the European Commission (representing the common EU interest).

9 Part 2 Environmental Awareness in the EU

10 History in Europe : Oil Crisis; “Acid Rain”; Greenpeace

11 History in Europe 1980-1989: “The Greens” 1980: FoundationSince 1983: Part of German Parliament : Part of German Government

12 History in Europe 1990-1999: “The Green Point”1990: Introduction of Dual Waste Management System in Germany. Today: Introduced in 23 other European countries.

13 History in Europe 2000-today: Phasing out of Nuclear Power1978: Austria 1980: Sweden 1987: Italy 1999: Belgium 2000: Germany

14 Germany: A “Green Nation”

15 Part 3 Resource Consumption in the Eu

16 European Cities Graz, Austria

17 European Cities Berlin, Germany

18 European Cities Madrid, Spain

19 Energy Consumption per capita per day

20 Energy Consumption and GDP

21 Energy Use for Transportation in gigajoules per capita

22 Passenger Cars and Population Vehicles per 1,000 people

23 Transportation Mode for Land-based TripsEurope U.S.A. World Walking/Bicycling % % Mass Transit % % Automobile % 95 % %

24 Transportation: Subway Network Chicago vs. Berlin

25 Daily Per Capita Water Use

26 Water Use vs. Water Price

27 Part 4 Eu’s GHG Emissions

28 Global GHG Emissions Seven largest emitters:U.S., EU, China, Russia, Japan, India, Canada. Account for >70% of energy-related CO2 in 2004.

29 Global CO2 Emissions Megatonnes by country

30 Global CO2 Emissions Tons of CO2 per capita

31 Cumulative CO2 Emissions 1850-2000 (Energy-related)

32 Cumulative CO2 Emissions 1950-2000, per capita responsibility

33 Global CO2 Intensity 2002, (Tons of CO2 per $1,000 of GDP)

34 Part 5 Eu and Climate Change

35 The EU and Climate Change Official European Commission Website“Climate change is already happening and represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing the planet. The European Union is committed to working constructively for a global agreement to control climate change, and is leading  the way by taking ambitious action of its own. The warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. The Earth's average surface temperature has risen by 0.76° C since Most of the warming that has occurred over the last 50 years is very likely to have been caused by human activities.”

36 Impacts in Europe “Impacts of Europe’s Changing Climate”, 2008Main vulnerable areas: mountainous regions, coastal zones, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic. Annual precipitation changes are worsening differences between a wet Northern part of Europe and a dry South, with some Mediterranean regions receiving 20% less rain than a century ago. Glacier retreat in Europe’s mountain systems, and the changes in temperature and precipitation, will have widespread consequences. Projections show an overall increase of river floods across Europe but an increase in river droughts in the South. A northward movement of certain fish species —1000 km in the past 40 years—can have adverse effects on fisheries, such as reducing cod stocks in the North Sea.

37 Impacts in Europe “Impacts of Europe’s Changing Climate”, 2008Spring phytoplankton blooms in lakes are now occurring up to one month earlier than years ago, which may favor harmful cyanobacteria threatening human health and ecosystems. Plants, birds, insects and mammals are moving further north and uphill. By the end of this century, plant species may have shifted several hundred kilometers to the north and up to 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. The agricultural growing season is now longer, especially in the North. Although this may favor the introduction of new crops, crop yields will become more variable because extreme weather events are projected to increase.

38 Impacts in Europe “Impacts of Europe’s Changing Climate”, 2008Increasing water demand for agriculture in the Mediterranean region will lead to unsustainable competition for water with tourism and households. The growing season of forests is also changing and the danger of forest fires will increase in southern Europe. Human health is also significantly affected by climate change. The 70,000 excess deaths reported from 12 European countries in 2003 could be an example of health impacts to come.

39 Impacts in Germany by 2100 Increase of temperature of 0.9° C in last 100 years (0.7 ° C globally); 1.5 ° C in the Alps. Increase of temperature of up to 4 ° C. Up to 30% less summer precipitation  more and stronger heat waves and droughts. Up to 30% more winter precipitation  more and higher floods in spring. Total melting of all Alps glaciers possible  flooding and water scarcity.

40 Climate Change Initiatives1979: Geneva Convention 1987: Montreal Protocol 1991: First strategy to limit CO2 and improve energy efficiency 1992: 'Earth Summit’, Rio 1997: Kyoto Protocol. 1998: EU-15 signs Kyoto Protocol. 2000: European Climate Change Program (ECCP I) 2001: EU-15 ratifies Kyoto Protocol. 2001: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme 2005: European Climate Change Program (ECCP II) 2005: Clean Air Strategy

41 Climate Change and the Economy “Stern Review”, 2006By Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist f the World Bank “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” One percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) per annum is required to be invested in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change, and that failure to do so could risk global GDP being up to twenty percent lower than it otherwise might be. Climate change threatens to be the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, and it provides prescriptions including environmental taxes to minimize the economic and social disruptions. “Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.”

42 Part 6 Eu and The Kyoto Protocol

43 The EU and the Kyoto Protocol 2008-2012EU-15 must reduce emissions by 8% compared to base year Some member states defined domestic targets beyond the Kyoto target in addition. No collective target for EU-27. Ten out of twelve new member states have individual commitments to reduce emissions to 6-8% below base level. Buy credits from emission-saving projects carried out in third countries. Aforestation and reforestation activities. Additional policies and measures. EU Emissions Trading System.

44 Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)Limitation of emissions from ~ 10,500 industrial facilities across Europe that together produce ~ 50% of EU’s CO2 emissions. Large CO2 emitters must monitor and annually report their emissions; obliged every year to return an amount of emission allowances to the government that is equivalent to their CO2 emissions in that year. Emission allowance prices between 7 and 30 Euros (per ton CO2). Excess emissions in incur penalty (100 Euro per ton CO2) and must be made up in next phase. Will continue beyond 2012 with or without new international climate agreements.

45 The EU and the Kyoto Protocol Press Release, 16 October 2008“Climate change: projections show EU on track to meet Kyoto emission targets” Projections for EU-15 and EU-27 EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 were 2.7% lower than This contrasted with economic growth of around 40% over the same period. For the EU-27 as a whole, emissions fell by 10.8% between and 2006. Existing policies and measures – those already implemented – are expected to reduce EU-15 emissions to 3.6% below 1990 levels by

46 Global GHG Emissions Trends 1990-2005/06EU % EU % Germany -18% U.S %

47 Projected Emissions in 2010 (compared with 1990)Member state   Kyoto Base Year (BY) emissions Kyoto targets Projections for 2010 Gap between projections and target MtCO2 % of BY Bulgaria 132.6 -8.0% -34.9% -26.9% Estonia 42.6 -65.7% -57.7% France 563.9 0.0% -4.2% Germany 1232.4 -21.0% -26.2% -5.2% Italy 516.9 -6.5% -4.6% +1.9% Luxembourg 13.167 -28.0% Poland 563.4 -6.0% -29.0% -23.0% Spain 289.8 +15.0% +20.5% +5.5% Sweden 72.2 +4.0% -5.7% -9.7% EU-15 4265.5 -11.3% -3.3% EU-27 5768.0 na -16.3%

48 Global GHG Emissions Trends Projections against 2004Japan -5% by 2010. EU steady by 2010.

49 Global GHG Emissions Trends Projections against 2004Japan -5% by 2010. EU steady by 2010. U.S. +8% by 2010 and +25% by 2025. China +50% by 2025. India +80% by 2025.

50 Part 7 The Post-Kyoto EU

51 The EU and Post-Kyoto after 2012With the Kyoto Protocol targets due to expire in 2012, the EU is pressing for a new international agreement to ensure that global warming is stopped before it exceeds the temperature in pre-industrial times by more than 2°C. Scientists view a 2°C rise as the threshold beyond which climate change could trigger irreversible and possibly catastrophic planetary changes.

52 The EU and Post-Kyoto after 2012“Energy Policy for Europe”  “First Mover Advantage”: EU will cut its greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and will increase this reduction to 30% if the other industrialized countries (particularly, the U.S.A.) agree to do likewise and developing countries also take action. EU agreed on reduction by 60-80% until 2050.

53 The EU and Post-Kyoto after 2012To achieve this cut of at least 20% by 2020, the following goals were defined: Strengthening and expansion from 2013 of existing EU ETS: allowances in 2020 will be 21% below 2005 levels, 50% of allowances will be auctioned; full auctioning by 2027. 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency. Increase in renewable energy’s share of the market to 20% (compared to 9% today; varying percentages for member states).

54 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport.Make carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology commercially viable abound 2020. Cut of 25% Co2 emissions from new cars between 2012 and Reduction of GHG emission from transport fuels of 6-10% by 2020. Halving tropical deforestation from current levels by and halting global loss of forest cover by 2030 at the latest.

55 Financing of adaptation, particularly in developing countries, through Kyoto Protocol’s Adaptation Fund and developing countries; costs of €23-54 billion per year by Healthcare savings of €27 billion per year from GHG emission reduction by 10% by 2020. Additional savings of €11 billion per year from reduced need for measures to control air pollution. Implementation of ETS is other regions: ETS can reduce costs of mitigation by as much as 75%  creation of a OECD-wide carbon market. Creating additional 700,000 jobs (from already 300,000 today) by 20% share of renewables by 2020. Research budget of €8.4 billion for

56 Help financing the €175 billion per year that are needed to reduce world emissions to a level compatible with the 2°C objective, particularly (>50%) in developing countries. Improvement of Joint Implementation (JI) in developed countries and of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in developing countries. Implementation of a sectoral carbon crediting mechanism and sectoral emissions trading systems.

57 The EU and Post-Kyoto after 2012 - ReactionsMany EU member states expressed concerns about EU Parliament ‘s vote for using profits from emission trade exclusively for climate protection activities/initiatives. Italy against stricter conditions. Germany against stricter CO2 emission limit (120 g/km) for new cars in 2012 (Germany: 2015). (Audi; BMW; Mercedes; Porsche; VW).

58 The EU and Post-Kyoto EU Heads Meeting, March 2007Transforming Europe into a highly energy-efficient, low-carbon economy.