1 Far Beyond Carbon Neutral320 ppm: Why Humanity Must Move Far Beyond Carbon Neutral Gene R. H. Fry April 2, 2017

2 Greenhouse Effect Dark Earth absorbs sunlight. Earth warms up andradiates heat. Greenhouse gases in the air (GHGs) intercept some outgoing radiation and re-radiate it back down. This warms Earth more. More GHGs = warmer still. Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Those surfaces don’t warm Earth much. Dark surfaces (water instead of ice) do the opposite. Darkening Earth heats it up, by decreasing the “albedo”. 2

3 We can learn lessons from the distant past.Temperatures can rise “suddenly”. million years ago With more ice, temperature swings are wider, since albedo changes - between icy & less icy - are larger. Earth’s surface can grow far warmer than now.

4 Earth Is Heating Up. • Earth now absorbs 0.25% more energy than it emits: a 300 (±75) million MW heat gain = 50 x global electric supply. This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960. Earth’s surface must warm another 0.6ºC so it emits enough heat to balance absorption. The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than all the energy humans have EVER used. (Hansen ’11) 4 4

5 Only a tiny fraction of warming goes into the atmosphere.

6 • I IMMENSE heat gain Heat Content (1022 Joules) 1022 Joules =100 years of US energy use x 1022 Joules / year / / = 17 x human use Heat Content (1022 Joules) By now, the oceans gain more heat every 2 years than ALL the energy we’ve ever used. IMMENSE heat gain Ocean Heat Content .

7 +1.22ºC in 100 years The 1997-2017 rate of change isNASA, 5-year moving average The rate of change is At that rate, “Both” will pass 2ºC above 1880 levels in 2058. 2.9ºC / 100 years for Land, 2.3 for Sea, 2.5 for Both. “Land” in 2033.

8 Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warmingsulfates still 3.2 x 1880 levels NASA +1.8ºC Krakatoa Predicted ∆°C = * LN (CO2 ppm) * LN (CH4 ppb) * SO4 ppb adjusted R2 = 97.8% Input variables are also 5-year averages, SO4 lagged 1 year. SO4 data includes industrial, occasional large volcanic, and other natural emissions.

9 • highest level since 14-15 million years ago (430-465 ppm)Up 45% Annual Averages The deep ocean then was 10ºF or more warmer. Seas then were feet higher. CO2 levels were almost as high ( ppm) 4.0 to 4.2 million years ago. Sea surfaces then were ~ 7ºF warmer. (38% Since 1880) Seas then were feet higher. This means ice then was gone from almost all of Greenland, most of West Antarctica, and some of East Antarctica. (CH4 up 111% since 1880) 300 ppm (maximum between ice ages) CO2 levels now will warm Earth’s surface 8ºF. That will make Kansas summers hotter than Las Vegas ones now. We face BIG lag effects. Current CO2 levels are already too high for us. CO2 Levels in the Air , 9 9

10 Vostok Ice Core Data + 2015 Vimeux, Cuffey & Jouzel,CH4 level ~ 1836 ppb Vostok Ice Core Data CO2 level ~ 400 ppm ∆ + 2015 Vimeux, Cuffey & Jouzel, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 203: (2002) Thousand Years before Present ppm = parts per million ppb = parts per billion Vostok Ice Core Data . 10

11 Lessons for Our Future from Ages Ago9.0 7.2 5.4 3.6 1.8 -1.8 -3.6 -5.4 (10 K year resolution) 14.1 - 14.5 Mya With current CO & CH4 levels, the equations yield global surface warming of 7.8ºC, but only 4.5ºC if CH4 is neglected. Warming how fast? 40% in decades, the rest over centuries. R2 for Vostok Mya .846 .733 Est. Global ∆ºC from 400 ppm in 2015 Million years ago Estimating ∆ºC at Vostok * LN (CO2) * LN (CO2) * LN (CH4) CH4 today ~1840 ppb ppb CH4

12 +2ºC globally requires (e.g.)Global Surface ∆°C = 0.6 * ( * LN (CO2) * LN (CH4)) +2ºC globally requires (e.g.) 323 ppm CO2 and 700 ppb CH4. This means removing 2/3 of the CO2 that humans have emitted and all of the CH4. Humanity’s remaining carbon budget for burning fossil fuels is NEGATIVE 250 GT of carbon.

13 2ºC Warming - 450 ppm CO2e*. . Hurricane costs double.also includes CH4, SO4,O3, etc. . Stern Review, British government, Oct (a report by dozens of scientists, headed by the World Bank’s chief economist) . selected effects - unavoidable damages, absent MASSIVE CO2 removal Hurricane costs double. Major heat waves are common. Droughts intensify. Civil wars & border wars over water increase. Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics. Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible. The ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh. Many more major floods Forest fires worsen. Deserts spread. 13

14 Droughts & hurricanes get much worse. 3ºC Warming ppm CO2e Stern Review + additional damages – may be delayed or avoided with MASSIVE CO2 removal Droughts & hurricanes get much worse. Hydropower and irrigation decline. Crop yields fall substantially in many areas. More water wars & failed states. 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna, desert scrub. Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther & faster. 15-50% of species face extinction. Water is scarce. Terrorists multiply. 14

15 Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many.. 4ºC Warming ppm CO2e.. (double pre-industrial levels) further damages - avoidable • Water shortages afflict almost all people. Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many. Entire regions cease agriculture altogether. Water wars, refugee crises, & terrorism become intense. Methane release from permafrost accelerates more. The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up. Stern Review 15

16 albedo (reflectivity) changes and permafrost emissions.Warming to 2100 and beyond will be dominated by albedo (reflectivity) changes and permafrost emissions. How do albedo effects produce that much warming?

17 phasing out coal’s sulfur emissions (about 0.6ºF), Earth will warm 3 x more, phasing out coal’s sulfur emissions (about 0.6ºF), vanishing Arctic sea ice (~0.6ºF), receding northern snow cover (~0.5ºF), receding Greenland & Antarctic ice (~0.4ºF), more H2O vapor & less cloud cover (2-3ºF), and warming oceans enough so energy out = in (~1.1ºF), carbon emissions from permafrost, etc. (~2ºF). More carbon emissions can add up to 1-4ºF each from H2O vapor, clouds & permafrost. even if we stop emitting now. Blame

18 When? (How fast?) Sulfur and sea ice loss (Mar-Nov) will be complete before Snow cover and cloud cover losses will continue. Permafrost + emissions ramp up in an S-curve thru Polar land ice loss and warming deep oceans span centuries.

19 • Consider Salina, Kansas, in the heart of wheat country,breadbasket of the world. 3-Year Moving Average +10.0ºF / century +5.4ºF / century trend +1.3ºF / century Over , Salina actually warmed 50% faster than the 26-city average. Hot as Las Vegas in 2088. At +5.4ºF / century, in 2100 summer in Salina would be as hot as Dallas now. Warming at 10.0ºF / century, in 2111 it would be as hot as Las Vegas now. We should PREVENT this. US Warming Graph .

20 When Do State Summers Become as Hot as Las Vegas Now?The average of daily highs in Las Vegas, June 1 thru September 30, , was 37.8ºC. Dates shown assume LOCAL daily high trends for those 21 years CONTINUE. Trends use 21 years x 122 days, for 348 places. 2371 New England 2322 2145 2362 Dakotas 2245 2287 2191 2128 2567 2086 2483 2348 2253 2164 2266 2315 2108 2181 2052 2149 2194 MD-NJ-DE 2104 2252 2096 2137 2162 2169 2125 2129 2097 2083 2140 2155 2095 2135 2099 2101 2070 2117 2235 3649 2194

21 CO2 Emissions Past & Future .2100 Soil carbon loss since 10,000 BC = 60% of fossil fuel emissions to 2010. Lal 2001 2012 peak CO2 removal = 32% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions to 2010. CO2 Emissions Past & Future .

22 Permafrost carbon emissions included: +ppm CO2 2100 2300 Base 57 + 185x FF Remove CO Cold Turkey Future CO2 ppm .

23 Kansas gets as hot as Las Vegas now.2100 Kansas gets as hot as Las Vegas now. includes big albedo effects: loss of sulfates; sea ice; some cloud cover, snow & land ice. More H2O in the air. international target Future ∆°C .

24 Future Scenarios . Lal ‘01 Permafrost carbon Soil carbon loss2100 2100 2012 peak Soil carbon loss since 10,000 BC = 60% of fossil fuel emissions. Lal ‘01 Kansas gets as hot as Las Vegas now. includes big albedo effects: loss of sulfates; sea ice; some cloud cover, snow & land ice. Also more H2O in air. international target CO2 removal = 32% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions to 2010. Permafrost carbon emissions included: +ppm CO Base x FF Remove CO Norfolk, S Florida, Sacramento Baton Rouge, Trenton under water includes thermal expansion & near total ice loss (x CO2 Removal) from most glaciers except Greenland (less in xFF 2050) & E. Antarctica, where % loss is modest. Future Scenarios .

25 Stop putting carbon in the air. Remove carbon from the air,Solutions Stop putting carbon in the air. Remove carbon from the air, as fast as we put it in now. 25

26 World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 32.7 Billion Tons in 2014• * Misc. = Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc. . . US DoE .. . The IEA says world CO2 output leveled off from 2013 to 2014 & . stayed flat in US DoE says it peaked in 2012. In , China began CO2 cap & trade around its 7 largest cities. In 2014, China coal use fell, for the 1st time in years: China’s CO2 output fell 4 straight years from 2012 to 2016, China’s CO2 peaked in 2012. US CO2 fell 4% from 2014 to 2016. World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 32.7 Billion Tons in 2014 2.9% from 2013. In 2015, it fell 3% more. 4.2% in all.

27 Take Carbon Out of the Air.1 Rebuild rangelands with perennial grasses. Add soil carbon 10 x faster Deep roots, dung beetles move carbon into soil. Fungi network holds water, so 75-90% of rain soaks in. 2 Farming, done right, can add GT C / yr to soil. Organic farms can add 1 T C / acre / yr: Rebuild soil organic matter (carbon): from 1-3% now, to 6-10% before farming. Increase humus good for 2-3 decades from Paustian et al Nature 532:49. 3 Bury biochar shallow in soils: more soil carbon - stays eons, holds water. with short rotation cattle grazing, like buffalo. Absorb 1 T carbon / acre / yr. Cut CO2 40? ppm. no-till, compost cover. with fungi network & glomalin, holding water many months. 6 5 4 3 2 1 $20/T $50/T $100/T - 16 ppm GT CO2eq / year

28 Take More Carbon Out of the Air.4 Rocks have weathered for eons, taking 1 GT CO2 / year from the air. Increase surface area a lot to speed it up: 7 GT CO2 / yr: - 40 ppm by 2100. Move CO2 into crushed basalt, olivine, peridotite: Scatter GT / year of olivine dust across the tropics: Blow air thru amines in artificial leaves, extract the CO2 and inject it underground. Blow air thru amines in ceramic honeycombs, extract CO2, for $20-70 / ton. 5 Farm the oceans. Grow algae in pans miles on a side, many inches deep. Harvest the algae, turn it into biochar. Sink it (2+ g / cc). 6 Plant more trees. trees need water. Evaporation leaves less in soils. Droughts hurt. Forest fires skyrocket. make carbonates. $5-63 / ton of CO2 removed. - many ppm It’s a good idea, but

29 Policy Tax carbon across fossil fuels, worldwide, in proportion to carbon content. Impose the tax upstream. It should start low, but then rise substantially and briskly, on a pre-set trajectory. End subsidies for production and use of fossil fuels. Give tax credits for carbon removal from ambient air, at the same rate carbon emissions are taxed. US$40 / tonne of carbon ($10 / ton CO2), rising 10% / year. Return net proceeds as equal dividends to individuals. CO2 emissions fall rapidly, economy grows a little faster. Small users get more $ back than they pay in higher prices.

30 Positive Signs CO2 emissions peaked in China in 2012, US in 2007, EU in 2003. The world economy has been growing while decreasing CO2 emissions. Europe’s 6 oil majors have called for a worldwide carbon price. Big Oil already uses shadow CO2 prices of $9-80/ton. 32 top US economists called for a carbon tax, as did ExxonMobil in Feb. So have leading Republicans Tillerson, Baker, Schultz, Paulson, Walton. > 100 companies will go 100% renewable: WalMart, Apple, Google, Nike, Ikea, etc. For new US power, wind generally beats gas on price and solar usually beats coal. Worldwide, new non-carbon power was already 150% of new carbon power in 2015. US no-till farming is growing 1.5% a year. Organic farming is growing too.

31 We humans must go carbon negative before 2050and big-time thereafter.