1 Future Schooling Provision in North PoriruaTēna koutou kātoa Thanks you all for coming and thank you to Maurice and Plimmerton school for hosting us this afternoon. I’m Elspeth Maxwell, part of Suze Strowger’s leadership team and Education Manager for Porirua and Kapiti. I’m also joined today by key members of our education team who will no doubt already be well known to you including Mitzi Austin, Ian Hill and Chris Wells. Apologies from Suze who has had prioritise a family emergency. The purpose of this meeting is to let you know about the Ministry’s intention to engage with you and your community about the future of education in Northern Porirua. I want to let you know about the background to this and the engagement process. You will be aware that North Porirua is growing and that growth is predicted to continue. The Population data, which we are going to share with you shortly, shows that while there is enough primary school provision to meet the needs now, we need to plan for projected growth and future needs for education around the Aotea Block. Before any decisions are made, the Ministry wants to understand more about your aspirations, and hear from you about what ideas you have for future education provision in your area.
2 Agenda Situation Background data and information Short term solutionsMedium to long term solutions Engagement approach Engagement support available Next steps A little about what you can expect from this afternoon. We will be taking you through some of the high level background data to outline the roll growth situation that is impacting on education provison on the southern fringe of North Porirua - All of the information we are referencing is publicly available at the Porirua City Council website. We’ll then look at proposed options that the Ministry has come up with to progress community conversations and thinking about future education provision. I will also outline what you can expect from the engagement and consultation process, what support the Ministry is offering, and the next steps. If you have any questions please feel free to raise them and we’ll either respond to them briefly as we go or pick it up at the end or as follow up. draft as at 7 September 2016
3 Situation Change in roll count between 2012 and 2016 This map shows where the schools are in the Northern Porirua area It is indicating the change in roll numbers over the last 5 years for each school I don’t want to go into every school in detail but want to zoom in on the next slide to look at the area that contains most of the schools where roll growth pressure is being experienced draft as at 7 September 2016
4 Situation draft as at 7 September 2016Change in roll count between 2012 and 2016 This slide shows change in roll numbers at each of the schools between 2012 and 2016. Where there is a blank line it indicates the lowest growth or baseline for each school in those years. Roll growth on southern fringe of North Porirua is causing capacity pressure at Rangikura and Papakowhai primary schools in particular – [point out graphs] – Papakowhai has been trending up since 2014 with large increase in 2015 and very large increase in Rangikura from 2014 is significant Others such as Discovery and Adventure and Plimmerton have also increased -since 2015 Based on 2015/2016 roll data we know there is capacity available of around 240 year 1 to 8 spaces available across North Porirua Overall there is sufficient primary provision across North Porirua to cope with the roll growth pressures but it is not in the right places. Up until March we thought that was enough - but new information (received in May) from the Council funded demographic data reveals that projected roll growth demand will be such that we won’t be able to meet demand of Aotea block -in the medium to long term As you will see in another slide later – the population projection for primary age students in the papakowhai area is projected to increase by over 250 by 2028 (10 plus years) but will decline by 200 students in the Whitby west area over the same period In summary the current provision in the North will not be in the right location to meet future demand in the southern fringe/Aotea Block – no primaries south of Aotea College and that is where most of the growth is likely to be. Parental choice continues to be a factor also e.g. from the East to Rangikura school There is a high risk of overcrowding and there are capacity limitations due to site constraints of those primaries experiencing the most pressure draft as at 7 September 2016
5 How many local students attend the local schoolsFrom the Ministry’s March 2016 roll returns – data schools input Top pie graph - For year 1 to 6 85% of kids who live in North Porirua attend a local state school. Intermediate ages reflect primary pattern due to all primaries in area are 1-8 and there is no intermediate school. At secondary level this drops to 33% For year 9 to 13 - Local kids attending local state college i.e. Aotea College Also at college age - 40% attend state school not in Porirua North (orange segment) – we know they travel for instance, to Kapiti, Tawa and Wellington secondary school Important to note that if a significant number of the 40% i.e. 841 students, decide they want to go to the local College there is insufficient capacity to accommodate them – only 140 current spaces available at Aotea College across all year levels . draft as at 7 September 2016
6 Population Projections Primary Age (5 to 11)2013 2028 Change 2013 to 2028 2043 Change 2028 to 2043 Area Number % Ascot Park 304 11 329 11.9 25 334 11.4 5 Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui 146 11.5 151 9.5 387 9.9 236 Paremata-Camborne-Mana-Inlet 260 233 7.9 -27 262 7.8 29 Paremata-Papakowhai 555 9.2 806 9.8 251 753 9.3 -53 Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton 412 443 9.1 31 652 209 Waitangirua 582 13.8 551 13.5 -31 527 13 -24 Whitby West 454 11.1 252 6.6 -202 258 6.8 6 Whitby East 595 10.9 660 65 620 8.6 -40 Toal 3308 10.8 3425 9.6 117 3793 9.4 368 So lets look at the population projections for school aged children? This slide shows councils popn projections for primary school aged chn between 2013 to 2028 and 2028 to 2043. It is broken down by each of the different study areas or suburbs. Focusing specifically on the next 10 to 15 years. Note the total increase in Porirua North is expected to be 117 primary age students between 2013 and 2028 but for the Paremata/Papakowhai area (including Aotea) it is expected that the popn for this age group will increase by 251 students while at the same time the popn for whitby-west will decline by 202 students. Three of the study areas project a decline in primary school students: Paremata/camborne/mana inlet, Waitangirua and Whitby West The number of primary aged students as a proportion of the total population is expected to decline from 2013 to 2028 – from nearly 11% to 9.6% and that decline is expected to continue out to This reflects a national trend because of an aging population. Note % values are the percentage of total population in each area Source draft as at 7 September 2016
7 Population Projections Secondary Age(12 to 17)2013 2028 Change 2013 to 2028 2043 Change 2028 to 2043 Area Number % Ascot Park 287 10.4 261 9.5 -26 272 9.3 11 Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui 163 12.9 151 -12 416 10.7 265 Paremata-Camborne-Mana-Inlet 174 6.3 195 6.6 21 206 6.2 Paremata-Papakowhai 429 7.1 726 8.8 297 637 7.9 -89 Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton 328 330 6.7 2 477 6.8 147 Waitangirua 500 11.9 456 11.2 -44 437 10.8 -19 Whitby West 356 8.7 263 6.9 -93 189 5 -74 Whitby East 505 9.2 571 66 525 7.3 -46 Total 2742 8.9 2953 8.3 211 3159 7.8 This slide shows councils popn projections for secondary aged students between 2013 to 2028 and 2028 to 2043. Again focussing on the next 10 to 15 years. Note the total increase in Porirua North is expected to be 211 secondary age students between 2013 and 2028 but for the Paremata/Papakowhai area it is expected that the popn for this age group will increase by 297 students while at the same time the popn for Whitby-West will decline by 93 students The number of secondary school aged students as a proportion of the total population is to decline from 2013 to 2028 – from nearly 9% to 8.3% in 2028 and that decline will continue out to 2043 to 7.8%. This also reflects a national trend because of an aging population. NB (if asked) - Paremata-Papakowhai includes Aotea - 373 children currently in Aotea attending a number of schools – the majority ie just over 50 % are choosing to enrol at Papakowhai. Note % values are the percentage of total population in each area Source draft as at 7 September 2016
8 Immediate response The Ministry’s initial response to roll growth pressures is to work with schools to ensure effective enrolment management. This may include implementing new and amending current enrolment schemes. Where growth is in-zone growth, additional teaching spaces can also be an option if funding is approved and sites can accommodate them. The Ministry’s initial response to roll growth pressures is to work with schools to ensure effective enrolment management. This includes implementing new and amending current enrolment schemes. Where growth is in-zone growth, additional teaching spaces can also be an option if funding is approved and sites can accommodate them Refer to Mitzi. draft as at 7 September 2016
9 Medium to long term (4-10 years +) responseOption 1 Strengthen provision for Year 7-8 at Aotea College - changing some or all of the northern area primary schools to Year 1-6 - creating Year 7-13 provision at Aotea College Option 2 Strengthen provision for Year 1-8 by either: - creating new primary school or - by creating satellite/second campus of Papakowhai School located either: - on a new site in the south of the Aotea development, or - at or near Aotea College Option 3 Other options the community may come up with Moving on to the more medium to long term. With the information currently on hand, the Ministry has identified these options as a starter to consider. As steward of the education system, the Ministry has to balance the needs and aspirations of the community with ensuring that resources are used effectively No decisions have been made as yet – we need to gather the views and other information from the community – parents, students and school leadership The options presented reflect acknowledgement that the projections say there is to be ongoing growth in Aotea Block and the capacity available is not located in the right area - there needs to be additional provision created for primary aged students in the area. The reality is that a lot of parents will want kids to go to school near where they live IF ASKED Why Aotea College? – considerable investment being made and the need to strengthen the pathway for local kids Why Papakowhai School ? – one of the primary schools of choice in the area, currently experiencing most pressure - and maybe the community wants to keep that attractive formula but replicate it where there is space for it The engagement phase now is about considering these initial proposed options and exploring other possibilities. draft as at 7 September 2016
10 Engagement Approach Invites active engagement and partnership with communities and key stakeholders Key goal - sustainable management of the schooling sector Maintain a balance between community needs and wishes, and effective use of resources. The Minister makes the final decision considering all input received. Shared information: Porirua City Council population forecasts and planning information Enrolment information Student distribution information Evidence based information provided by schools and stakeholders We are inviting active engagement and partnership with communities and key stakeholders – Recognising that sustainable management of the schooling sector requires all those with an interest to be involved in the design and delivery of solutions The Ministry’s responsibility is to maintain a balance between community needs and wishes, and effective use of resources. The Ministry’s role is to share information it holds (where appropriate) and access community information to build a full picture Census data Porirua City Council population forecasts and planning information Enrolment information Student distribution information Also considers - What evidence based information do schools and stakeholders have that can contribute to this thinking? The Minister makes the final decision considering all input received. draft as at 7 September 2016
11 Engagement Support Engagement Support: Tina Nation, 027 886 0820Ministry funded support Provides independence - guidance and support to facilitate engagement and consultation Following this meeting Tina will contact each school BoT Chair to meet and identify needs for support Engagement and Consultation feedback and any queries are to be submitted to a dedicated address – to be advised We have contracted engagement support to work with you and your boards to guide and support engagement and consultation with your communities. Tina will contact each BOT chair to meet and identify yuor needs for support in this engagement process. draft as at 7 September 2016
12 Timetable Engagement By end of Term 1 2017Consultation By end Term Consideration Term Decision by end of Term Implementation from Term Engagement starts now and runs through to the end of term – Boards of Trustees of each school are asked to facilitate engagement with their communities and provide feedback to the Ministry on the perspective of school leadership, the Board, staff, students, parents and communities The Ministry will facilitate engagement with sector groups such as Unions, Principals Association – to provide guidance and oversight , and will run this parallel to the broader engagement and consultation process Engagement feedback will be analysed and the preferred option and rationale will be presented to the Minister for a decision on what is to be consulted on By the end of Term a consultation document will be released and you will be asked again to facilitate feedback on it– this may require more than one round depending on the feedback and issues The Minister will consider all input received from the consultation round and will make a final decision by the end of Term From implementation in Term 4 - Preparation will be needed with planning and discussion with you and other stakeholders to put in place a transition plan that works towards the approved decision. draft as at 7 September 2016
13 Ministry of Education (Wellington Region) points of contactEducation Adviser Ian Hill Chris Wells Education Manager Elspeth Maxwell Lead Network Advisor Mitzi Austin draft as at 7 September 2016
14 APPENDICES draft as at 6 September 2016
15 This and the next couple of slides shows popn projections for specific study areas of Northern Porirua (Porirua Council funded report by ID) This data takes into account the growth in the Aotea Block development area The ID information doesn’t have a summary projection for the whole of North Porirua – broken down into study areas I won’t cover all study areas that make up North Porirua but a couple of those that are examples of notable projected growth or decline This slide shows the Paremata-Papakowhai area indicating that the popn is expected to increase by 21.7% between now and More detailed information by school age groups is supplied in later slides. draft as at 7 September 2016
16 Paremata/papakowhai has growth but adjacent to it is Whitby –west which projects declineThis slide shows the Whitby-West area which is actually expected to decline in population between now and 2043 by % We can see that the growth across the Northern Porirua area is not a consistent growth – some places quite high (Papakowhai area) and others are static or dropping slightly (e.g. Whitby –West area) draft as at 7 September 2016
17 It is interesting because it says the population is projected to raise by 200% in the Paekakariki Hill/Pauahatanui area by 2043 but this growth is predominantly to occur between 2028 and 2043 We are putting this slide in because we want to acknowledge that there is a large projected increase in this area but it is so far out it is not part of the consideration for responding to the Aotea Block growth. But this area will need monitoring. The next slide will show you a summary of the impact on primary school age – projected for 2028 and 2043 draft as at 7 September 2016
18 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
19 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
20 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
21 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
22 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
23 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
24 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
25 Porirua City Council Study Areasdraft as at 6 September 2016
26 draft as at 6 September 2016