1 GREEN GROWTH FOR TRANSFORMING SOCIETIES– redefining/ negotiating urban-rural carbon inequity International Symposium on Green Growth and Global Environmental Change UNU-IAS, Tokyo, Japan Mahendra Sethi PhD Fellow United Nations University - Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Japan Editor National Institute of Urban Affairs, India
2 Presentation structureKeywords Green Growth, Transforming Societies, Low-carbon, Urban/ urbanization, Rural, Inequity Presentation structure Background Research objective Data and methodology Discussion of Results Conclusions and way forward
3 Conventional Growth Greater dependency on fossil fuelsRise in incomes and consumption behaviour Migration and rapid urbanization Non-agricultural activities Environmental degradation and pollution Depletion of natural resources/ bio-diversity Negative externalities Political, economic, environmental inequity Greater disparities in access and allocation of resources Scaling-up of impacts
4 More Developed Regions HIGH 75% 8.18 Less Developed Regions MEDIUM 45% Greatest inequities are evident in the so-called ‘North-South’ political divide. Influences the Global Environmental Governance particularly the carbon space, as recognized by the Kyoto Protocol. The post-Kyoto world showing Annex-I countries As societies experience economic growth, they rapidly transform from rural to urban and increasingly contribute to carbon emissions. State of economy, urbanization and carbon emissions across various regional scales Regions Level of economy and urbanization Carbon Emissions (tons/ capita) World 50% 5.8 More Developed Regions HIGH % 8.18 Less Developed Regions MEDIUM 45% 5.51 Least Developed Countries LOW % 0.49 Source: UNDESA (2011)
5 What does Green Growth proclaims to offer….“Means fostering economic growth and development while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies” (OECD, 2012). “green economy that enables growth, social progress and environmental stewardship” (UNDESA, 2001). Green Growth offers a process based ideology to grow within the environmental limits. It argues an alternative paradigm for future development that is ecologically sound and fosters social equity Finds particular interest and pertinence to transforming societies, on the upward curve of economic growth and urbanization; traditionally known to have environmental and social concerns at the bottom of their development priorities.
6 Global Environmental Change Meteorological ChangesCould Green Growth respond to the rising challenges within the global change ….inequity in the carbon space and urbanization on the terrestrial space Global Environmental Change Global Warming Sea-level Rise Bio-diversity Loss Urbanization LULC Changes Meteorological Changes Population Change GHG Emissions As the world further takes a rural to urban tilt, would the ecological inequities between the rural and urban constituencies stabilize or exacerbate in future ? How could responding to carbon inequity at the local level influence/ realize greener growth for transforming societies ?
7 DISSAGGREGATION METHODSMethodology- Spatial techniques to account carbon throughput In the recent past, there is an evolving application of spatial techniques and methods to allocate emissions to sub-national scale/ units. AGGREGATION METHODS DISSAGGREGATION METHODS Aggregation based method where emissions or energy use or expenditures from various point and mobile based sources are re-classified for a administrative/ spatial unit like county Grid-based approach of transposing, distributing or assuming national or global emissions over regional spatial units through complex geographical information software/ applications A pioneering study used the Vulcan emissions atlas to compare transportation and building emissions in urban, periurban, and rural counties of the United States (Parshall et al., 2010) For Sydney, Lenzen et al. (2004) disaggregated total primary energy use in 14 areas, and followed this up with a GHG emissions atlas of Australia at the postal district level (Dey et al., 2007) (Rue du Can, 2008, VandeWeghe and Kennedy 2007, Andrews 2008) (Dao & VanWoerden 2009, Theloke J 2009) Due to greater availability of standard global data sets with high confidence and precision, disaggregation of emissions has particularly found favour with studies capturing the role of urban areas and urbanization in climate change discourse (as evident in Satterthwaite 2008, Carney et al 2009, Sethi & Mohapatra 2013).
8 Formulation of a conceptual framework : 3x3 analytical matrixResearch Design Formulation of a conceptual framework : 3x3 analytical matrix Developed Countries Economic Transformations High Developing or the Middle-Income Countries Medium Least Developing Countries Low Spatial Transformations Rural (>33% urbanized) Urbanizing (34-67% urban) Urban (<67% urban)
9 Data Sample size of over 200 country/ territories.UN classification- A country/ territory is defined using the of regions as followed in the World Population Prospects and several other international studies. Urban population/Urbanization- Global dataset of for 229 countries for six decadal years (1960 – 2010). Data on urbanization is obtained from World Population Prospects: The 2011 Revision (UNDESA 2011) Carbon dioxide emissions- Global dataset of (metric tons per capita) for countries for six decadal years (1960 – 2010) is sourced from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) data Energy consumption- Global dataset of (kg of oil equivalent per capita) from World Development Indicators Database GDP per capita at PPP, 2005 constant international dollars is sourced from World Development Indicators Database, available online at:
10 Some may argue whether ‘urbanization’ is an appropriate indicator. Association of urbanization with emissions is tested against the usual parameter of economy (i.e. GDP per capita at PPP, 2005 constant international dollars as the indicator in most of the schemes); using co-relation analysis. Carbon dioxide emissions (mt/capita) Urbanization (per cent of total country population) Economic Growth (GDP/capita at PPP, 2005) Indicators of economy (GDP/capita) and urbanization, both have limited association with increasing CO2 emissions. It is notable that with all other things being equal, in comparison to GDP, urbanization level of countries worldwide has a greater R-square value with CO2 emissions. Urbanization is a sufficiently qualifying indicator for further experimental investigation.
11 Discussion of Results - Unfolding of the PhenomenonThe results could be visualized or interpreted through the 3D surface model and contour model: Spatial development - urbanization Economic development Carbon dioxide emissions (mt/capita) Rural Urbanizing Urban Least Developed Countries (LDC) Developed Countries / Most Developing Region (MDR) Developing Countries / (LDR – LDC) Less Developing Region (LDR) Economic development Spatial development - urbanization
12 The ‘old’ industrialization had created NS disparity, which is now dilutingNS emission differential has reduced substantially from over 55 to about 17 in 2010. Difference between the two extremes (i.e. urban North and rural South) has reduced from 10.11t in 1960 to 8.85t in 2010, on per-capita basis. This reinforces the existing literature on diminishing income and emission inequalities across the world regions (Padilla and Serrano, 2006) with empirical data on spatial attributes. North urban 8.18 t 0.49 t 8.85 t South rural North urban 6.09 t 10.11 t 0.11 t South rural
13 The North Pole touches the Equator Concentration of high emissions could be more attributable to urban societies rather than the global North The North Pole touches the Equator Data of indicate sudden shift of high per-capita emissions towards highly urbanized societies of LDR like UAE, Qatar and Brunei, although MDR countries like US, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, Australia, Sweden, UK, Netherlands also had emissions above 10t/capita. 1960 1970 1980
14 Urban societies indeed emit more than the rural counterpartsYour spatial circumstances outweigh to economic situation The Urban Additionality Emissions of urbanized LDR exceed urbanizing MDR: From , the emission from highly urbanized countries (above 67%) of less developing regions have been greater than urbanizing (34-67%) nations of even the developed countries. Comparative per-capita emissions are (4.13, 3.73), (16.69, 6.39), (13.84, 7.43), (8.30, 6.90), (9.66, 6.37), (8.30, 6.21) from
15 Town is town and country is country and never the twain shall meet !Urban-rural emission disparity thrives Numerically, this disparity has prevailed almost constant, 6.89t (1960) to 6.78t (2010). In the past, the greatest ever carbon inequalities (of 15.68t and 12.40t/capita) between any two spatial units has been recorded for UR (in case of LDR minus LDC group) for 1970 and 1980 respectively. 12.40 t 15.68 t 6.89 t
16 Transforming societies are maturing earlyEarly incidence to higher emission for LDR (DC+LDC) Incidence to moderately higher emissions (in range of 3-6 t/capita) for LDR on a pathway to urbanization, physical and socio-economic development is much greater than ever before. In 1960, the occurrence was synonymous with an overall national urbanization of not less than 67%, which has reduced to 34-67% in the recent decades. 1960 2010
17 Comparing Carbon Emissions with Energy ConsumptionEnergy consumption is also polarized in urban areas Energy consumption or fossil fuels is polarized or highly concentrated in the urbanized part of the globe, rather than just the North. Within urban societies of the world, it ranges in 3500 (LDC) kg of oil equivalent per capita (MDR)….. Cities are undisputed guzzlers of carbon. 2. In comparison to emissions, energy consumption in North continues to be high Emissions in North (urban) have largely plateau around 6-9 t/ capita (a large part of it is due to exporting industrial activities to the developing countries), their energy consumption is astonishingly high….energy rise at home could offset emission gains from exports in future. 3. Transformative pathway for developing societies LDR (DC+LDC) can continue to develop and remain low-carbon by sustainable urbanization LDR societies on development pathways – urbanizing in the range of 34-67% can continue to develop economically, keeping their emissions around 3t/capita, by keeping their energy consumption levels between kg of oil equivalent per capita. Emission patterns in 2010 Energy consumption patterns in 2010
18 Case studies in energy access and consumptionUrban Baseline (particular to each region) At primary level, disparity in carbon could be understood from IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) data on energy access that captures access to electricity in urban and rural areas across the world regions. Selected cases of relative consumption levels in final energy use, from urban-rural areas for 22 different countries over all world regions (10% of samples); explains the situation better x 6 Urban Baseline (particular to each country) Resonates with the findings from 3x3 spatial-development matrix. In most parts of the world, urban areas have the biggest ‘carbon footprint’ responsible for excessive fossil-carbon use and emissions beyond their national average or fair share. In exceptional cases it is the rural areas from the North consuming more carbon than their equitable share
19 Conclusions High emissions are also a function of location or spatial circumstances, (particularly urban societies) and not merely economic or geo-political situations, and hence could be decoupled from affluence. Rural constituencies in the South presently counted nowhere tend to lose their fair share or actual right to use, save or bequest carbon, if they are not awarded their entitlement at a scale most immediate to them. Transforming societies could continue to develop with sustainable urbanization. Rather than high economic growth, sustainable urbanization and equitable resource utilization between urban and rural areas at the local level is the key. Green Growth in transforming societies will have to invariably address and minimize the UR disparities at the local level…cities to be accountable for their carbon use/ flows with rural counterparts.
20 This research recommends –How could Green Growth redefine or negotiate Urban-Rural carbon inequity ? This research recommends – 1. Low-carbon High-equity Ideology Greater accountability of urban areas Opening up of carbon space for local emission cuts. 2. Sub-nationalize carbon governance Emission caps/ entitlements be distributed to cities and rural regions with regional trading markets. Negotiators (states) act as regulators and learn to upscale into a global market. Exception of LDC or Island states that genuinely require handholding. 3. Standardize inventories at the local level To account production, consumption of materials, energy in local constituencies and their mutual flows on principles of TCCCA. Internalizing emissions with bio-geochemical cycle and human actions in the anthropocene, will do an immense job to the humanity and environmental sustainability by main-streaming carbon in the global environmental debate.
21 Thank you for your kind attentionMahendra Sethi PhD Fellow United Nations University – Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability