1 Has globalisation gone into reverse gear? Simon OakesLocal Deglobalisation Has globalisation gone into reverse gear? Simon Oakes Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

2 Studying global systemsAll A-level specifications require students to think critically about: The nature of economic, political, social and environmental interdependence in the contemporary world. How unequal flows of people, money, ideas and technology within global systems can sometimes act to promote stability, growth and development but can also cause inequalities, conflicts and injustices for people and places. How unequal power relations enable some states to drive global systems to their own advantage and to directly influence geopolitical events, while others are only able to respond or resist in a more constrained way. “Greater connectivity between people, places and environments across the globe means that movements of goods, people, technology and ideas have become easier, and the systems which facilitate and direct these flows have become truly global in reach and impact.” (Geography A-level subject content, 2015) Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

3 Click to reveal the definitionsKey terms Globalisation ‘A process in which the constraints of geography on economic, political, social and cultural arrangements recede, in which people become increasingly aware that they are receding and in which people act accordingly’ (Malcolm Waters, 2001). Sovereignty The ability of a place and its people to self-govern without any outside interference. Nationalism The belief held by people belonging to a particular nation that their own interests are more important than those of people from other nations. Protectionism When a nation blocks foreign imports that it views as a threat to its economy. Re-shoring When companies return to using domestic suppliers because out-sourcing and offshoring has become more costly. Do you know what these terms mean? Click to reveal the definitions Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

4 Global disruptions 2001 Attack on US World Trade Center Al Qaeda’s violent act signalled the start of the so-called ‘war on terror’. Daesh has since emerged as the major player in a conflict which has brought misery to millions. Attacks on Western cities and tourists appear calculated to disrupt ‘business as usual’ globalisation. 2008 Global financial crisis (GFC) The GFC was rooted in US and EU money markets. High-risk lending by banks eventually undermined the entire world economy. Global GDP fell for the first time since 1945, also triggering the Eurozone crisis. 2011 Arab Spring At first, popular uprisings against north African and Middle Eastern dictators appeared to signal political progress. But the global community failed to avert a crisis in Syria. 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea Thomas Friedman’s ‘Golden Arches’ theory of globalisation states that no two countries with McDonald’s restaurants will ever go to war. But the presence of McDonald’s in both Russia and Ukraine did not stop Vladimir Putin from annexing Crimea. 2016 UK votes to leave the EU Could a ‘hard Brexit’ spark the eventual disintegration of the EU if other populations demand their own referendum? US Trump presidency President Trump’s manifesto included a promise to build a wall along the Mexican border along with tough new measures to re-shore American-owned overseas factories. In 2017, President Trump announced his intention to quit the Paris climate change agreement. Since the start of the century, several major shocks have disrupted global systems and global governance. In the 1990s, most academics, business leaders and politicians viewed globalisation as an unstoppable and desirable process. Now many people are becoming less sure of this. Hodder & Stoughton © 2016

5 The global economy The global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–09 is clearly visible. World trade has yet to recover to pre-crisis levels. A global-scale slowdown in some cross-border movements has occurred. The world economy experienced cyclical boom and bust phases previously. Some economists view the period since 2008 as a new cyclical or permanent downturn following the boom that began in the late 1980s. Although the Chinese economy is maturing, its growth rate has halved recently. China was globalisation’s growth locomotive: slowdown of the world’s largest economy has serious implications for everyone. 2016 was the fifth consecutive year when global trade did not grow. Annual cross-border capital flows of US$3 trillion are well below their 2007 peak of US$8.5 trillion. Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

6 Barriers to global flowsSome global flows are being affected in two different ways. Some flows have reduced in size because of the global economic slowdown (there has been a global reduction in container shipping movements). Other flows have been interrupted by new barriers to movement (the USA has introduced high tariffs for imports of Chinese steel, for example). Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

7 Brexit and deglobalisationSome people view Brexit as a symptom of deglobalisation and the ‘dismantling’ of global systems. Attracted by the Leave campaign’s promise of stricter migration controls and the restoration of national sovereignty, British people voted to abandon their economic, political and demographic union with 27 neighbour states. The Financial Times newspaper described the 2016 UK referendum result as a ‘roar of rage’ by people who feel ‘alienated by globalisation’. In the long term, this may reduce migration flows between the UK and other countries. Iit may also affect financial flows. Fotolia Think about the possible impact of a ‘hard Brexit’ on flows of people, ideas, information, money and goods. What changes could occur? Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

8 The US presidential electionThe voting map shows a divided country. Clinton supporters were more likely to be ‘internationally-minded’. Trump supporters were more likely to be in favour of greater protectionism, migration controls and a ‘retreat’ from globalisation. Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

9 Global winners and losersStudy this graph carefully. It suggests that globalisation and the GFC have created economic hardship and austerity for ordinary ‘middle class’ people in Europe and North America. Many have been left feeling they are ‘losers’ in a global game which only benefits rival states and global ‘elites’. They are more likely to support ‘anti-global’ political movements.

10 A different view 2012 The number of registered Facebook users reached 1 billion, representing unprecedented human connectivity (it has since reached 2 billion) 2013 The European Union expanded further to include Croatia; other Balkan states hope to join soon 2015 Many people judged the COP21 Paris climate change conference a ’success story’ for global governance Chinese investment in Europe and the USA reached a record total of almost US$40 billion 2016 The African Union announced plans for all 54 member states to work towards visa-free travel Despite anti-migration rhetoric, the estimated number of international migrants reached a record 250 million Compare this table with the one shown on Slide 4. Two competing views of globalisation and global systems begin to emerge from the evidence. In your judgement, what is actually happening? Is globalisation advancing or retreating? Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

11 Global migration This visualisation of global migration appeared in Geography Review Vol. 28, No. 2). It shows movements recorded between 2005 and Since then, the number of migrants worldwide has increased further: in 2016, more than 250 million people were living in countries they were not born in. Place stories may therefore have several chapters, each of which features important connections with other near or far places (Figure 2). These layered connections have built up to produce an ‘accumulated history’ shown in each place’s cultural landscape. Roman pottery, Viking burials and medieval building foundations lie under the streets of York. Surviving buildings from different eras are reflected in the contemporary glass structures in the City of London. Flows of goods, people and money have shaped these places over millennia to produce ‘a nexus of connections and linkages’. Source: From Abel, G. and Sander, N. (2014) ‘Quantifying global international migration flows,’ Science Vol. 343, pp.1520–22. (DOI: /science ). Reprinted with permission from AAAS.

12 Practise your skills. Describe how data flows have changed over time.Global data flows Practise your skills. Describe how data flows have changed over time. Place stories may therefore have several chapters, each of which features important connections with other near or far places (Figure 2). These layered connections have built up to produce an ‘accumulated history’ shown in each place’s cultural landscape. Roman pottery, Viking burials and medieval building foundations lie under the streets of York. Surviving buildings from different eras are reflected in the contemporary glass structures in the City of London. Flows of goods, people and money have shaped these places over millennia to produce ‘a nexus of connections and linkages’. Worldwide data flows are still accelerating. Social media use keeps growing in popularity — even among people who support ‘anti-global’ political movements. The world is therefore still shrinking in many respects, despite uncertainty over future trends in cross-border physical trade and migration flows. Hodder & Stoughton © 2017

13 Advance, pause or retreat?Conclusions Look at each of the four aspects of globalisation in the table. What’s your verdict on each aspect: advance, pause or retreat? What’s your overall judgement on globalisation: advance, pause or retreat? Aspects of globalisation: Advance, pause or retreat? Economic connectivity Financial flows e.g. foreign direct investment, migrant remittances and internet sales Social International migration and social mixing. Global developments in education and health Cultural Changing cultural attitudes and norms. Global diffusion of media, music and fashion Political Participation in global agreements. Growth of international institutions and organisations

14 Conclusions World trade and financial flows have slowed since 2008 on account of the global financial crisis and the struggle of some emerging economies, notably China, to maintain previously high growth. Opposition to international migration, offshoring and trade bloc membership has increased in some countries, especially among social groups who believe they have not benefited from globalisation. More governments show signs of listening to voters who are sceptical of globalisation. Possible policy measures include migration controls, trade protectionism and retreat from global political affairs. While more people and politicians in developed countries may be sceptical of globalisation, these attitudes are not necessarily shared in emerging economies. The concept of globalisation is complicated and consists of numerous processes, not all of which have paused or reversed. Although China’s growth and global commodity trade have both slowed, global internet use continues to accelerate.

15 This resource is part of Geography Review, a magazine written for A-level students by subject experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go to:  http://www.hoddereducation.co.uk/geographyreview Philip Allan Publishers © 2016