1 How Earthquake Early Warning works:P-waves Edited and animated by Alicia Hotovec-Ellis S-waves

2 ShakeAlert Status Development Path  2006-2012 – R & DSensor Networks Processing Alert Creation User Actions Field telemetry Alert Delivery Shows major components of the system; sensor network field telemetry, processing and alert creation, alert delivery and user actions. Alert delivery and user actions are in a lighter blue because they are not mission functions of the USGS and are done by partners (pilots and users).  – R & D  2012 – Demo System  2016 – CA Production Prototype  2017 – Full West Coast Prototype  2018 – Limited Operations ???? – Full Operation Development Path Future progress depends on funding levels

3 ShakeAlert Funding HistoryFederal (USGS) FY14 $1.5 M FY15 $6.5 M FY16 $8.2 M $3.7M – University Coops $3.2M – USGS $1.5M – equipment FY17 $10.2 M (Omnibus bill) FY18 ??? California (Cal OES) FY16/17 $10M 2/3 Network build-out, 1/3 CEO Seeking long-term funding Oregon ~$1M for stations (DOGAMI, EWEB) Others Moore Foundation $10.1M R&D L.A. UASI $5.6M SCSN stations FY16 breakdown doesn’t sum correctly be cause coops included some carryover.

4 ShakeAlert Station PlanStation Buildout Alert Centers PacNW ~711 stations contributing Some still need upgrade 1,675 total stations Denser in metro areas Permits & NEPA/CEQA on public lands is challenging ShakeAlert Station Plan 711 / 1,675 = 43% complete (5/2017) As of 4/2017 there are 711 stations contributing of 1,675 planned = 43% complete Density in Greater L.A. and Bay Area are sufficient to support limited pilot actions. Target density is 10km in metro areas, 20km in source areas, 40km in others areas No. CA Contributing Upgrade Future New So. CA

5 Production Prototype V1.2ShakeAlert Production Prototype V1.2 West Coast Architecture Standardized Distributed (4 locations) Redundant (6 alert servers) Live in CA Feb. 2016 Live in WA-OR Apr. 2017 Robust enough for limited production (pilots) Two point-source algorithms ShakeAlert Algorithms - Development Path Feb ShakeAlert V1.0 = CA Production Prototype in April ShakeAlert V1.2 = Full West Coast Production Prototype

6 ShakeAlert Data Products All products are XML messages served via ActiveMQCoreInfo – Source Parameters Point Source: Latitude/longitude, depth, Magnitude, Origin time Finite fault: 2D line when FinDer is added QuakeML format to PDL Ground motion intensity maps (MMI)* Alert Polygons (CAP format)* Multiple alert levels Simple polygons Update over time Others - TBD * In development

7 Mass Notification Technologies Alerts “by all available means”Transport Technology Issues and limitations Internet, Wi-Fi IPAWS (FEMA) WEA (cellular broadcast) EAS – TV & Radio New cell standards (ETWS) Over-the-top apps Push notification systems Digital Radio -“DataCasting” Satellite Fragile, congestion Voluntary, too slow New FCC rules may enhance capabilities and speed up ATIS* working group, 3-7 years High volume = slows delivery Need info from Google, Apple Being tested by Cal OES Capabilities unknown IPAWS – carriers are not required to send alerts, best effort, 10’s of seconds at best. ETWS = International standard, Earthquake and Tsunami Warning System (used in Japan) New FCC rules to extend capabilities and speed up have not been finalized or implemented. WEA – wireless emergency alert (alerts to cell phones like AMBER and weather) EAS – Emergency Alert System No current mass alerting technology was designed for the high volume, low latency requirements of EEW. *ATIS: Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions is the cellular industry standards org.

8 Mass Alerting via Cell is Years AwayFCC Federal Communication Commission ATIS Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions 9/23/16 – Report to congress on WEA alerts in less than 3 seconds 9/29/16 –new rules adopted for WEA, some help with EEW Several reports on EEW alert via cellular broadcast EEW-WG recommendations for new standards based on 3GPP ETWS by Fall 2017 Japan ETWS based on 3GPP TR

9 Beta & Pilot Partners Sector MatrixCurrent Beta (partial list) Current or Candidate CRADA/TAA/Pilot Financial BofA Electric Utility SCE, PG&E, Bonneville Eugene Water and Electric Board (P), PG&E (N), Southern CA Edison (S) Gas Utility SoCal Gas Water Utility LADWP, EBM, MWD, Seattle Eugene Water and Electric Board (P) Pipelines, transmission lines BP Telecommunications Emergency Mgmt. Many state, county & city Public Safety (Fire, police, EMS) LAFD FireDispatch (N) Hospital / Medical Service Providence (P) Northridge Hospital (S) Education/Research LAUSD, Redwood Empire LA Unified School District (S), University of Southern California (S), Jet Propulsion Lab (S), Santa Monica College (S), UC Berkeley (N) Transportation BNSF, CalTrans Mass Transit BART, LA Metro, Sound BART (N), LA Metro (S) Industrial/Commercial/ Manufacturing Boeing, Intel, Paccar Spectrum Chemical (S) Insurance RESIG Ports, airports Long Beach AAAE, LAX (S) Information Technology (IT) Mass Notification GSS, AdHoc, Regroup City of Los Angeles (S), Everbridge (S) Automated controls EWL, GSS EWL, GSS, ArxPax(N), RH2 (P) EOC management tools Mass Media NBC/Universal NBC Universal (S), iHeart Media (S) Entertainment Venues NBC/Universal, Disney, Boyd Residential Regatta Seaside HOA (S) Beta & Pilot Partners Sector Matrix Region: S = Southern California N = Northern California P = Pacific Northwest

10 ShakeAlert Communications, Education & Outreach (JC-CEO)Joint Committee on CEO (CA, WA, OR, BC) User workshops in Seattle, Berkeley & Pasadena, Oct. ‘16 Coordinating: Beta & pilot user relations Social science R&D Developing alert content: messages, sounds, signals Pre-event education and training

11 ShakeAlert Governance: ANSS Earthquake Early Warning Working GroupsTechnical Implementation WG (ExCom) ANSS EEW Coordinator (chair) USGS EEW CPIC PM One seat for each: core regional network core USGS network Communications, Education and Outreach WG (JCCEO) ShakeAlert Outreach &Comm. Coordinator USGS WR Office of Communications USGS SAFRR project state office of emergency management state geological survey university office of communications (advisory) Challenges Meshing with state plans (esp. CA) Many cooks in the kitchen ShakeAlert Project WGs Executive Committee (ExCom) Scientific R&D Geodesy Testing & Certification Production Development Streamlining Education & Training (JCCEO) Standards & Metrics Government Affairs

12 Questions for the RAC Basically: Are we headed in the right direction? What do we need to adjust? EEW Balance point between: Increasing engagement with test users Advocacy with Feds and Private Industry partners Continued focus on building up network capabilities