1 Mel Austen, Project Coordinator Plymouth Marine LaboratoryVECTORS of Change in European Marine Ecosystems and their Socio-Economic Impacts Mel Austen, Project Coordinator Plymouth Marine Laboratory Feb Jan Total cost €16.6 million €12.5 million funding from EC

2 Pressures on our marine environmentNeed for VECTORS Pressures on our marine environment Human use of the European marine environment is increasing and diversifying. Current and emerging pressures are multiple and interacting e.g. from Transport Energy devices Exploitation of living resources Discharges Together with environmental changes including climate change

3 New means for human induced-changes in marine lifeNeed for VECTORS New means for human induced-changes in marine life Outbreak forming species Invasive alien species Changes in productivity and distribution

4 VECTORS EU OCEANS OF TOMORROW Changes in marine life: Invasive speciesProject Summary EU OCEANS OF TOMORROW VECTORS Changes in marine life: Invasive species Outbreak species Changes in fish distribution and productivity Ecosystem Approach: Environmental, Economic and Social perspectives Baltic Sea Drivers and pressures Mechanisms Impacts Future projections Risk assessments Policy and management implications North Sea West Mediterranean

5 VECTORS People! VECTORS Partners PhysiologistsFisheries biologists/ecologists Modellers – fisheries, ecology, ecosystem, economy Ecosystem services ecology Ecosystem Services valuation- social Ecosystem services valuation – economic Statisticians Systematic reviewers Experimental ecologists Data managers Fisheries economists Theoretical economists Macroeconomic modellers Law researchers Policy and governance Cultural anthropologists Ballast water management Project management Communications and outreach Financial management Administrators VECTORS Partners Estonia (1) Lithuania (1) Poland (1) Denmark (3) Ireland (1) UK (6) Germany (4) Netherlands (4) Belgium (1) France (4) Spain (2) Italy (6) Greece (1) Israel (1)

6 Applying VECTORS outcomesThe EU needs this knowledge to inform development and implementation of strategies, policies and regulations e.g. EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive IMO Convention on Ballast Water Management EU Maritime Policy Common Fisheries Policy Marine Planning Directive Invasive Alien Species Strategy

7 VECTORS Themes & Policy Implications for Future ScenariosModelling current and projected trends Scenario testing Governance implications (policies, politics, administration, legislation) WP6 - Task Links in with work in WP5. Implications on policy, legislation and governance of four contrasting future scenarios for the marine environment (scenarios were originally developed by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000)). The possible changes and repercussions on governance, policy, politics, administration and legislation have been assessed for the VECTORS themes (Fisheries, Energy, Ballast water, IAS and Pollution) under the future scenarios. S. Boyes, R. Barnes & M. Elliot Rolf Groeneveld

8 Mechanisms of Change in Species Distribution and ProductivityKey mechanisms identified: Dependence on and tolerance limits to environmental variables Habitat connectivity Change in prey availability & predators’ presence Biological responses to abiotic and/or biotic factors Drift of early life stages Physiologically-based habitat suitability Biological interactions

9 Ecosystem Structure and Functioning Experimental test of impact: Invasive Chinese mitten crabClear bioturbatory effect of the crabs Implications for sediment destabilisation, nutrient resuspension, sediment mixing Quantifying bioturbation using fluorescent sediment profile imaging (f-SPI) Temperature may not restrict northward migration; impacts on MSFD good environmental status likely in terms of biodiversity, non-indigenous species, commercial shellfish and food webs Turbidity in experimental mesocosms increased with increasing density of crabs Movement of the luminophores modelling using a 1-dimensional diffusion model No significant differences between size classes or temperatures (10oC; 15oC; 19oC)for all the outputs CMC have been shown to survive down to freezing and although their optimum minimum temperature is meant to be 12oC we have seen here that temperature down to 10oC is having no significant effect on the bioturbation. Images – Top Day 0 with CMC sat on layer of luminophores (fluorescent sand); Bottom Day 3 with luminophores mixed into the sediment.

10 Valuation of Ecosystem Benefits from the Dogger BankT. Börger, C. Hattam, D. Burdon, J. Atkins, M. Austen Börger et al Ecol. Econ. 2014 The Dogger Bank is facing pressures from fisheries, wind farm development and aggregate extraction. To comply with the EC Habitats Directive and Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Dogger Bank SAC requires management to achieve the protection objectives. Method and Results UK-wide choice experiment survey (N=1,022 households) Unit: Willingness to pay (WTP) to secure ecosystem service change Dogger Bank management targets Change in species diversity Protection area for porpoises, seals and seabirds Reduction of risk of invasive species Economic valuation of impacts Implications of Vectors scenarios for Dogger Bank B1 Precautionary approach to MSY 50% cover of windfarms = no take zone Reduced oil and gas exploration 0.3oC SST increase A2 Abandonment of CFP: more destructive fishing practices 15% cover of windfarms Increased oil and gas exploration 0.8oC SST increase Economic valuation can quantify the welfare impacts of policy-induced ecosystem change to inform management planning and decision-making.

11 Deliberative Valuation and the Dogger BankA. Delaney, D. Degnbol, M. Hadjimichael, C. Hattam, T. Börger, J. Atkins, D. Burdon, M. Austen Alternative to monetary valuation of ecosystem services In-depth exploration of opinions Conflicts and dilemmas in management of DB Prioritisation of uses/ ecosystem services of DB Results Sustainability and balance is important Conservation a priority, with caveats – balance intrinsic value of DB with economic demands Influence of witnesses apparent Availability of evidence affected discussions Fishing prioritised over windfarm construction – historical legitimacy and information imbalance Methods Workshop designed as citizens’ jury 20 members of the public 4 expert witnesses 2 rounds of deliberation Did not aim for consensus Supports development of management plan for the Dogger Bank cSAC Complements ecosystem service valuation in support of ecosystem approach to marine management, as required by MSFD

12 Anti-proliferative effect of jellyfish extracts in cancer cellsThe good and the bad… Invasive alien and outbreak forming species can change ecosystems impacting human welfare e.g. Positives Increased diversity in Baltic ecosystems Database of international patents on jellyfish utilization in different fields: biological applications, cooking treatments and recipes, pharmacological cosmetics. Negatives Fisheries - change fish stocks, clog nets Power stations - clog water intakes Impact on recreation, tourism Health risks Anti-proliferative effect of jellyfish extracts in cancer cells Differential bioactivity on cancer and non-cancer cells Lead compound research in anticancer drug design

13 Ecology – economy interactions: Overview of activitiesVectors Scenarios e.g. Change of environmental conditions Combined results of the different models for the whole chosen system Aquaculture Aquaculture economic results FISHRENT / MEFISTO Fisheries economic results Windfarms Windfarm economic results Transport Economic results Impact on invasives, species productivity and distribution Interaction Valuation studies Tourism Tourism economic impact model output under different scenarios feeds into ICES macro-economic model Understanding of economic impacts supports decisions making and implementation of policy and management plans according to IMP, MSFD, CFP, BWM etc.

14 Modelling the economic impact of non-indigenous species and mitigation measures in fouling and ballast waters for the shipping industry. The % of the annual cost of non-indigenous species mitigation measures under current regulation trends (ballast water management and anti-fouling), may be 6 times greater for a small ship when compared with a larger ship. Ballast water system The proportion of annual running cost is 1-7% depending on the flag, type and size of ship, even when fuel consumption is optimized by reducing speed (but this increases fouling cost and non-indigenous species spread) non-indigenous species in fouling incurs more fuel consumption costs than indigenous species do -these costs may be greater than the costs of mitigation measures. Vessel type DWT BUT, analysis is based on sparse data and knowledge and many assumptions and simplifications. Uncertainty is therefore very high. Further research is needed. Jose A. Fernandes et al. (submitted)

15 FishRent modelling of the impact of regulatory, market and ecological changes on economic results of the North Sea saithe fishery . . . Economic variables (fish & fuel prices, variable & fixed costs, effort distribution and capital investment) 2007 Fishing behaviour 2050 Fishing mortality Stock size Biological variables (stochastic recruitment, natural mortality, distribution changes derived from WP 2.2, seasonal migrations, maturity, individual fish growth) Katell Hamon, Heleen Bartelings, Sarah Simons Contact:

16 FishRent modelling of the impact of regulatory, market and ecological changes on economic results of the North Sea saithe fishery . . . . . . fishing effort will be displaced closer to home ports with a high concentration in areas where fish abundance is high and/or fishing costs low . . . . . . there will be heterogeneous impacts on the profitability of individual fleet segments ! Katell Hamon, Heleen Bartelings, Sarah Simons Contact:

17 D6.7 Online Synthesis of VECTORS for Stakeholders and Policy MakersAims of synthesis website D6.7 Online Synthesis of VECTORS for Stakeholders and Policy Makers Aim for high impact - specifically with policymakers and stakeholders… …. By making our research outcomes highly accessible and engaging Synthesis WEBSITE Easy to use and navigate Interactive Intuitive Simple but effective Accessible Stand alone pages Engaging

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19 Further Information: www.marine-vectors.euProject Coordinator: Mel Austen Project Manager: Jenny Lockett Plymouth Marine Laboratory Tel: +44 (0)

20 International Conventions, EU Directives and Regional ConventionsObligations Protection Afforded / Targets EC Directives, Policies and Strategies (Not applicable to non-EU countries) International Bodies Action Plan (applicable to all Signatory Counties) OSPAR UNEP MAP International Conventions, EU Directives and Regional Conventions Boyes, S.J. & Elliott, M (in prep)