1 nel commercio internazionaleNIBI – Focus Far East Giappone e Sud Corea nel commercio internazionale Carlo Altomonte

2 Free Trade Areas compared: America, Europe, AsiaNote: EAS 16 includes ASEAN10 (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), plus three (China, Japan, and Korea), and plus three (Australia, India and New Zealand) => ASEAN + 3 (+3) Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2007.

3 Intra-regional trade ratio (export and import, %)Source: IMF, Direction of Trade, CD-ROM, May 2007.

4 Overall Timeframe of FTAs in East AsiaSource: Original METI updated by author

5 Overall Trade Map East Asia (2009)(unit : billion dollar) ＊The wider arrow indicates the bigger trade value. ～ 10 B$ 10 ～ ～ ～ ～ ＊The stronger color indicates the higher share of parts . 0 ～10% 10～20% 20～30% 30～40% 40%～ Note : 1. Trade value is import basis China does not include Hong Kong Because of data availability, import figures of Brunei Darussalam are not included and those of Mexico are 2003 basis. Sources : Original data came from UN Comtrade database. Compiled by IDE.

6 Trade Map for Parts and Components (2009)(unit : billion dollar) Note : 1. Trade value is import basis China does not include Hong Kong Because of data availability, import figures of Brunei Darussalam are not included and those of Mexico are 2003 basis. Sources : Original data came from UN Comtrade database. Compiled by IDE. ＊The wider arrow indicates the bigger trade value. 　 ～ 1 B$ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～

7 Trade Map for Processed Goods (2009)(unit : billion dollar) Note : 1. Trade value is import basis China does not include Hong Kong Because of data availability, import figures of Brunei Darussalam are not included and those of Mexico are 2003 basis. Sources : Original data came from UN Comtrade database. Compiled by IDE. ＊The wider arrow indicates the bigger trade value. 　 ～ 1 B$ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～

8 Trade Map for Capital Goods (2009)(unit : billion dollar) Note : 1. Trade value is import basis China does not include Hong Kong Because of data availability, import figures of Brunei Darussalam are not included and those of Mexico are 2003 basis. Sources : Original data came from UN Comtrade database. Compiled by IDE. ＊The wider arrow indicates the bigger trade value. 　 ～ 1 B$ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～

9 Trade Map for Consumption Goods (2009)(unit : billion dollar) Note : 1. Trade value is import basis China does not include Hong Kong Because of data availability, import figures of Brunei Darussalam are not included and those of Mexico are 2003 basis. Sources : Original data came from UN Comtrade database. Compiled by IDE. ＊The wider arrow indicates the bigger trade value. 　 ～ 1 B$ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～

10 Imports of parts and component by industry (US$ billions)Note: 1. East Asia includes ASEAN10 (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam), plus three ( China, Japan, Korea) , Hong Kong, and Taiwan. 2. Because of data availability, data on China ( ) and Brunei Darussalam (199,1996,1999,2000,2004) are not included. And figures on recent years of some countries may be tentative. 3. This graph is based on BEC-basis data, which are recalculated from SITC-basis for long term perspective( ). The trade goods by production stage includes following items; Primary goods : items under BEC code 111, 21 31, Processed goods : BEC code 121, 22, 32, Parts and components : BEC code 42, 53, Capital goods : BEC code 41, 521, Consumption goods : BEC code 112, 122, 51, 522, 61, 62, 63. 4. The values of trade goods are measured by import value on US dollar basis. Sources: Original data came from UN Comtrade database. Compiled by IDE.

11 Example: Parts Procurement of a Hard Disc Drive Assembler Located in ThailandUSA Mexico SPNDLE MOTOR: NIDEC, NMB BASE: WEARNS CARRIAGE: FUJIKURA, SANEI FLEX CABLE: NOK PIVOT: NMB SEAL: KOKOKU VCM: SMT,TDK TOP COVER: NOK, NHK PCBA: SSCI HGA:UTC HAS:UTC DISK: HGST HEAD: HGST SUSPENSION:HTI HEAD: GDL China Japan PCBA:GBM,SSCI CARRIAGE:TDK HGA: HSPC BASE: BPI HEAD: HGST SUSPENSION:NHK COVER: NHK DISK:HOYA SCREW: KATAYAMA SEAL: KOKOKU, TOKAI RAMP: DAICHI TOP CLAMP: BPI, SOODE LATCH: NOK PLATECASE: BRIDGESTONE LABEL: SANSAI FILTER: SSRETEK PCBA: SSCI SUSPENSION: NHK Taiwan BASE: KENSEISHA PIVOT: NSK SPACER:KENSEISHA VCM:SHINETSU BASE:ASAHI CARD:SCI, CELESTICA TOP CLAMP: SCL, CELESTICA, SOODE DISK: KOMAG TOP CLAMP: GML Thailand Hong Kong FILTER CAP: GML Philippines DAMPING PLATE: IMEAS COIL SUPPORT: TOTOKU PCBA: IONIX Malaysia COVER: KURODA, CHEUNGWOH SCREW:TIORMAC, SPURWAY PIVOT: NSK PC ADP: JST DISC: HOYA Singapore Indonesia W.SUSPENSION: SUMITOMO VCM: SHINETSU PCBA: SOLECTION Source: interview at Hitachi Global Storage Technology (Thailand), August 2005.

12 Possible FTAs in ASEAN+3 and Europe

13 The case of Japan

14 Crescita del PIL a confronto: 1980-2010

15 Inflazione

16 Recessione Deflazione Crisi bancariaIl ciclo borsistico: la ‘grande bolla’ del 1989 Scoppio di una bolla borsistica e immobiliare (land value di Tokyo = USA) (Nikkei = 2 volte DJIA) Recessione Deflazione Crisi bancaria

17 Il ‘grande errore’ della BoJ: la ‘lost decade’Fonte: Sahoko KAJI, Keio University

18 …ossia la paura cinese in questi giorni….L’errore del Governo (?): il ‘Plaza Agreement’ sui cambi… …ossia la paura cinese in questi giorni….

19 Le istituzioni imparano….Lo Yen resta svalutato Rivitalizzazione del sistema bancario ZIRP e Quantitative Easing dalla BoJ

20 Oggi ? Il Giappone è stato duramente colpito dalla crisi: ripresa trainata dall’export ma…. ….lo Yen si sta apprezzando Poca apertura internazionale …. Bassa produttività e problemi demografici