1 Presented at EWRI World Congress May, 2010 Stephen Bourne, P.E.Watershed Health Manager (WHM) A Proposed framework for Watershed-Scale Planning and Management Presented at EWRI World Congress May, 2010 Stephen Bourne, P.E.
2 Pamlico Sound, NC; Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 2000 – 2100, 1m riseRoanoke Island Alligator River NWR Cape Hatteras National Seashore Belhaven *From Albemarle Climate Adaptation Project, USFWS, The Nature Conservancy
3 St. Augustine, FL; Urbanization: 500% Population Increase by 2060.*From Florida 2060 (2006)
4 Issues Facing All CommunitiesClimate Change Translates to altered weather patterns Differential Impacts depending on region; requires downscaling Longer and more intense Drought More Intense Storms Urbanization Rapid growth in population Concentrated in Coastal Zones Attendant Need for Jobs, Energy, Water, Sewer, Communications Sea Level Rise Projected to rise as much as 1m Loss of habitats, refuges Loss of real-estate (residence, commercial centers, agriculture) *From IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007).
5 Considerations for Managing WatershedsStakeholder Inclusion Include the implementers Stakeholders should develop the tool as well as use it Formal consensus-building processes are required Transparency (in science, metrics to translate to stakeholder objectives, implementation process) The End Product: A Management Plan Inclusive of all Management Options: Zoning, Smart Growth, Storm water Infrastructure, BMPs, Recycling Focused on Health of Entire System: Economic Viability, Water Quality, Keystone species health, etc. Agreed by stakeholders for legitimacy and credibility Decision-Oriented Science Identify Decisions to be made, then assessment approach, then data needed. Science questions should be geared toward informing the decision making process Scale and Scalability Focused on scale that is inclusive of all stakeholder concerns: Regional or Landscape Applicability to Many Regions: Don’t reinvent the wheel, but use the right wheel… Whole System Assessment, Realistic Forecasting Build analysis framework to simulate entire system Combined Climate Change, Urbanization, and Sea Level Rise forecast Proceed in Annual (sub-annual) time step for realistic landscape evolution
6 The WHM Solution Wiki Federation of Existing DatabasesHomebase for Communication Run Impact Assessments Learn from Others’ Assessments Federation of Existing Databases Makes all data accessible to National Network Enables fast Climate Change Impact Assessment Decision Support Tools: Essential for Developing Management Plans Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessment Informed by State-of-Art Science Focus on Specific Landscape-scale Resources Management Problems Usable across national network Stakeholder Development Process Build DSTs and supporting data systems through stakeholder-driven process Inclusive of Federal State, tribal, local, NGOs Results in tools owned and used by the stakeholder community
7 Using a Wiki to Build CommunityWiki is based on same software used by Wikipedia. Provides ability for all stakeholders to access system data, analyze data using tools, share information, publish results Stakeholders can use Decision Support Tools published to the WIKI. Map Provides place-based visualization of system data, analysis results and documentation. Stakeholders can find out what projects are happening around the country. Stakeholders can use the WIKI to understand regulatory process.
8 Integrating Existing National DatabasesUSGS National Water Inf. System (NWIS) Real-time Streamflow Data National Hydrologic Information Server San Diego Supercomputer Center CUAHSI Hydrologic and Environmental Data USFWS National Wetlands Inventory Geospatial Wetland Extent Data Alaska Data Stores On-Going Remotely Sensed Data Collection NorthSlopeDB Enterprise GeoDatabase National Data Stores On-going Field Data Collection NorthSlopeDSS NorthSlope Stakeholders GIS Workbench Cache Local Exploration Team Oil Company Planners Research Team NSDSS, DOE Ice Road Planning Project Alaska Environmental Field Data, GCM Outputs And Many More….
9 Data Integration: How is it done?Wrapper Presents Data in national standard Format WIKI Firewall Field Data Web Services Firewall Web Services Provide only the data they are programmed to provide, to public consumers, ensuring security and transparency Catalog Service - Brokers data requests Semantic Mediation Climate Forecasts MetaData Database Firewall GIS Data Web Services
10 Place Analysis Results in the context of the decisions to be made.What is a DST? Decision Support Place Analysis Results in the context of the decisions to be made. 2. Analyze Analysis Tools Management Models Natural Systems Models 3. Communicate Information System 1. Integrate Data
11 Stakeholder-Driven DST DevelopmentPhase 1: Prototype Development Phase 2: Tool Formalization Phase 3: Assessment Case Studies Visioning Workshop Prototype Summit Identify Decision Identify Important Spatial Scale Identify Stakeholders Collect Requirements from Stakeholders Build Prototype Initial Data Collection Initial Assessment Implement Recommended Refinements Fully Collect Data Fully develop and test tool Find Efficacy of various Management Scenarios Document Results Disseminate Planning Workshop Decision: Management Plan for Ensuring Refuge for Important Species Under Changing Climate and Urbanization Spatial Scale: Regional or Landscape Scale as changing availability of land will require shifts in zoning and creative use of remaining lands
12 Identify Region-wide Stakeholders: The Pamlico Sound ExampleNational Wildlife Refuges Alligator River Mattamuskeet Swan Quarter Pocosin Lakes Roanoke River (as sea level rise progresses) Local Property Owners Hunt Clubs on the Peninsula Farm Operators and Owners Environmental Land Owners The Nature Conservancy The Conservation Fund State Agencies NC Wildlife Resources Commission NC Dept of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Coastal Management NC Dept of Environment and Natural Resources, Forest Service (timber production is a major industry on the peninsula) NC Dept of Transportation (main road Hwy 64 from Raleigh to the Outer Banks) State Parks Pettigrew Goose Creek Cultural Groups Historic Preservationists (some of NC’s first settlements) Research Community Universities National Labs Counties Dare Hyde Tyrrelle Washington Beaufort Small Towns Washington Plymouth Columbia Numerous Villages (20 + ) Recreation Hunters Fishermen Bird Watchers Canoeists Eco-tourists
13 Stakeholder Roles in DST DevelopmentStakeholder Committee Represent all User Perspectives Policy, Environmental, Economic, Cultural Technical Advisory Committee State, Local, Tribal, Regional, Federal Modeling and Planning Experts Researches Facilitators Technologists Project Management Project Team Small group that work regularly with the project team to ensure a credible analysis process that accounts for all perspectives Complete set of stakeholders representing all perspectives. They convene only for the large workshops and rely on TAC stakeholders to run the analysis
14 Natural System Models: Pamlico Sound ExampleAnalysis Needs Data Needs GCM Environmental Forecast Rainfall, Temp, RH, etc. (From multiple GCM models) Downscaling Model Converts to Regionally-Specific Environmental Forecast Forecast Analyzer Provides a multi-GCM, ensemble forecast with uncertainty estimates River Basin Hydrology Model Estuary Model Includes Sea Level Rise Landuse Forecaster Changing Landuse from Human Population Growth At-Risk Species Model GCM Outputs Landuse Information System Analysis Tools Natural Systems Models Management Models Decision Support Place Analysis Results in the context of the decisions to be made. Transporation, Business Districts, Zoning Plans Topography, Soils, Rainfall Field Data: Rainfall, Temperature, Solar Radiation, RH Streamflow Stormwater Master Plans
15 Visioning Workshop: Example OutputsIdentify Full Set of Objectives: Ecological Preservation Cultural Preservation Economic Development Recreation Public Safety Agree to Decision Framework Scenario-based Assessment Metrics Agree to Modeling Process Joint Forecasting Model Natural Systems Models (Hydrology, Estuary hydrodynamic) Agree to Data Needed Hydrography Climate Change Forecasts Sea Level Rise Forecasts Urbanization Forcings (DRIs, Roads) Zoning Plans Meterology, Hydrology Field Data Agree to Major Requirements for DST Information System Visualization Decision Support Models Forecasting Models Natural Systems Models Communication of Results Recording Plans and Feedback
16 Implementation: From Pilot to the National ScalePilot Area Assessment (Two pilot areas) Expansion Testing (Prove Methodology) Refinement National Expansion National Data Catalog Service Catalog Service Catalog Service Project-Specific Data & Analysis Tools Field Data Field Data
17 Conclusions Communities are facing multiple challenges over the next century Climate Change and Urbanization Science must be incorporated in the Planning Process Stakeholders must be included in development and usage of decision support tools for planning and management A Watershed Health Manager should: Be designed with a Decision-Oriented Approach that Identifies Analysis and Data Needs Leverage Existing Data Serving Efforts Inform the Science Community of Need for New Knowledge Communicates results clearly to stakeholders Encourages interaction of the stakeholder community
18 How do you build a DST?
19 IPCC SRES Scenarios *From Wikipedia
20 Trends in Global Observations*From IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007).
21 A Service Oriented World: Data And Analysis ServicesGet Regional Forecast Natural System Modeling Framework Service Forecast Service Downscaling Service Start Assessment GCM Data Service Management Scenario Assessment Service Landuse GIS Service Get Landuse Forecast Landuse Forecast Service Topography, Soils, Rainfall GIS Service Transporation, Business Districts, Zoning Plans GIS Service GIS Service Hydrology Modeling Stormwater Master Plans Hydrology Modeling Service Field Data: Rainfall, Temperature, Solar Radiation, RH Decision Support Service Estuary Box Modeling Estuary Box Modeling Service Streamflow Species Population Species Modeling Service