School Sales Development and Growth Potential

1 School Sales Development and Growth PotentialJuly 2015 ...
Author: Marianna Johnson
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1 School Sales Development and Growth PotentialJuly 2015 Sales Meeting

2 Approach: Products & School CustomersThe project focused on Milk, Juice and Yogurt products and K-12 public schools with consistent deliveries of milk. MILK JUICE YOGURT Half Pints White 4 oz All Cups Flavored 6-16 oz 6-7 oz 12-16 oz TOTAL 5.3 oz (Greek) *Bulk “School” channel customers removed for analysis: Colleges Daycare Camps Private Schools Churches Summer Feeding Collectively those removed equal 38% of ‘customers’ but only 14% of milk volume. Schools with No Half Pints Inconsistent deliveries Pre-K only Juvenile/ “Alternative” No match to NCES database * For analysis purposes, Bulk was converted to equiv. 4 oz cups

3 Approach: Regional Analysis GroupingsIL IN MI MO UPPER MIDWEST Carlinville Anderson Battle Creek Belfonte Dairy Muller Pinehurst Olney Fort Wayne Hazelwood Dubuque, IA Peoria Holland Jefferson City Quincy CENTRAL NORTH OK Springfield, MO Omaha, NE Norman Fayetteville, AR Kansas City, MO Chandler Ft Smith, AR Wichita, KS OTHER

4 Executive Summary School channel sales development varies significantly by product and geography. Geography Leaders Locale/Demo Recap MILK HP Hiland – North Suburban districts are your weakest locale area across all of Prairie Farms. Ties somewhat to income. Hiland – Central LuVel, Turner Southern Belle Cities, Towns and rural show similar development 12-16 oz Prairie Farms – IN Lower F/R % districts = Larger Opportunity JUICE Hiland – OK Suburban districts are your weakest locale Turner City students are much larger consumers of juice YOGURT No geography is a best practice yet. Sizeable growth opportunity throughout. PF – IN, Hiland – North and Hiland – OK sold yogurt to 16% of their schools. Top districts are 3-5x Prairie Farms average where yogurt is sold. Sum of 3 Products Only 4.8% of the schools buying milk purchased all three categories from Prairie Farms. Regional results range from 15.9% at Hiland – OK to < 1% at LuVel, Turner and PF – Upper MW (IA/WI).

5 Executive Summary: Opportunity RecapStrong growth potential exists for Prairie Farms in the School channel. Using the midpoint of the growth potential projections, growth could deliver 20-25% growth in the 10,933 public schools. Product 2014 Unit Sales Midpoint of Growth Range Milk Half Pint 846.4 MM 101.0 MM Milk oz 2.8 3.8 Juice 109.3 132.0 (100% Share) Yogurt 2.1 17.0 (33% Share) TOTAL 960.6 MM 254 MM The projections do not include private schools or schools serviced by Distributors, yet many of the ideas would be equally applicable.

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7 School Milk Development: Servings per StudentSchools served by Prairie Farms used milks per student during 2014 calendar year, 14% above national average (128). Geographies served by Hiland and the southeastern brands outperformed the Prairie Farms brand areas. Comparison Points School year has 180 days. Students average 240 meals at school (Breakfast & Lunch).

8 Milk Servings: Geography Averages vs. % F/RSouthern Belle and Hiland – Central had the highest milk servings per student. The lowest developed geographies (PF-MO, PF-MI and PF – UMW) also have below average Free/Reduced rates among the students. % F/R LuVel Turner Hiland OK S Belle PF IN PF TOTAL PF MI Hiland C PF IL PF MO PF UMW Hiland N Milk Servings per Student

9 Suburban Districts Lag Behind Other AreasSuburban schools only use 107 milk servings per student, nearly 40 below the average. These communities represent 23% of the students you serve. Medium/Large cities have similar development as Towns and Rural areas. Servings per Student* URBAN RURAL No. of: Schools 1,499 1,919 1,057 2,386 4,062 10,923 Students 918,052 1,314,269 610,382 1,180,617 1,781,217 5,804,537 *Note: National for was 128

10 Larger Single Serve (12-16 oz)Where does oz sell best? (PF geography) Highest distribution? Strongest sales per student? What school characteristics are associated with the strongest sales?

11 Larger Single Serve (12-16 oz) DistributionPF – Indiana has the broadest distribution and the strongest development of oz. packages. Lowest distribution is in Southeastern brand areas and Upper Midwest (IA/WI). Distribution (% of Schools) Svgs/Student where Distrib F/R Rate (%) Sec Mix Mixed Central 35.9 12.5 1.6 0.6 46 60 North 36.0 24.9 1.4 0.8 40 44 OK 25.6 13.4 3.7 2.0 38 47 IL 27.7 8.6 4.5 2.4 52 IN 48.4 22.7 5.4 3.3 37 45 MI 36.6 18.1 2.9 2.5 35 42 MO 44.9 15.1 1.7 25 30 Upper MW 15.2 6.2 27 KY 16.0 11.5 2.8 2.1 49 TN 0.0 NM --- MS TOTAL PRAIRIE FARMS 27.6 12.0 3.6

12 Larger Single Serve (12-16 oz) OpportunityWhat if you could achieve PF-IN results system-wide? PF-IN PF-TOTAL DISTRIBUTION Secondary 48.4% 27.6% Mixed 22.7% 12.0% SERVINGS PER STUDENT 5.4 3.6 3.3 2.5 Prairie Farms would realize an incremental 3,799M units per year, more than double current sales levels of 2,798M. New Distribution Existing ~1,000 Schools Schools Units Secondary 459 1,973 M 1,108 M Mixed 298 511 207 TOTAL 757 2,484 1,315 TOTAL POTENTIAL +3,799 M

13 Larger Single Serve (12-16 oz)27.6% distribution in Secondary schools (plus 12% in Mixed schools). In 621 Secondary schools, the performance is strongest where: Free/Reduced Rate (%) is lower. Half pint servings are lowest. Flavors are overdeveloped (>75%) and white milk is lower (<25%). 94.3 76.4 89.1 91.8 101.4 82.3 48.2 100.4 Share (%) of Milk from oz size 24% 31% 34% 39% 44% F/R% IMPLICATION: oz delivers incremental sales/consumption in higher income schools. Low F/R % = larger oz opportunity.

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15 Juice Development: Distribution% of Milk Schools with ______ Juice Sales 4 oz Only 6-16 oz Both Sizes TOTAL (any) Sec School % w/Both Central 43 1 2 46 6 North 40 4 48 8 OK 67 3 10 80 22 IL 21 29 IN 32 44 11 MI 13 14 MO 16 7 27 Upper MW KY 54 TN 51 66 MS TOTAL PRAIRIE FARMS 28 35 35% distribution, led by Hiland-OK at 80%. Hiland-OK sold both sizes in 10% of schools, driven by 22% of secondary schools. Significant opportunity for distribution gains of 4 oz. in all schools as well as larger packages in Secondary and Mixed schools.

16 Juice Development Servings per StudentAverage student used just under 52 servings per year. While LuVel’s milk schools averaged 100 juice servings, distribution was only 11%. Hiland – OK had high distribution and servings per student, making that geography the strongest overall.

17 Juice Distribution & Servings by GeographyHiland OK has the strongest juice distribution and nearly the strongest servings per student. Turner was the second strongest. Sizeable gap between these two and the other operating units. % of PF Milk Schools Hiland OK Turner S Belle Hiland N Hiland C PF IN PF IL PF MO PF MI PF UMW LuVel Juice Servings per Student

18 Juice Distribution & Servings by GeographyElementary school distribution is comparable to other grade groupings. Juice servings per student, as you would expect, are much higher in elementary schools. % of PF Milk Schools Hiland OK Turner Hiland N S Belle Hiland C PF IN PF IL PF MO PF MI LuVel PF UMW Juice Servings per Student

19 Juice Distribution & Servings by GeographySecondary School juice servings, while lower than Elementary, follow a similar pattern and show a positive correlation between distribution and servings across different regions. % of PF Milk Schools Hiland OK Turner S Belle PF IN Hiland N Hiland C PF IL PF MO PF MI PF UMW LuVel Juice Servings per Student

20 Juice Servings per StudentStudent Total ELEMENTARY SECONDARY MIXED Central 50.5 59.1 35.4 53.0 North 46.2 50.9 46.7 36.5 OK 69.5 80.9 67.6 47.7 IL 38.4 50.7 21.6 42.4 IN 45.5 56.2 33.2 45.7 MI 36.1 25.0 39.8 MO 37.1 52.1 22.9 30.8 Upper MW 11.1 8.2 12.6 11.2 KY 46.1 50.2 42.5 44.5 TN 66.6 77.3 57.5 55.4 MS 100.9 115.7 81.7 87.2 TOTAL PRAIRIE FARMS 51.7 62.4 42.0 * * Minimal distribution, so excluded from ‘leader’ evaluation

21 Juice District Locale: DistributionPrairie Farms’ strongest juice distribution is in medium/large cities. At 51%, there is still a lot of growth in cities. Suburb distribution is only half that of cities (27%). Smaller areas are near the average. % of PF Milk Schools URBAN RURAL Schools 760 524 332 881 1,381 3,880 Students 498,957 344,482 204,846 458,769 606,142 2,113,945 IMPLICATION: Significant growth potential in juice distribution, everywhere. New juice opportunity in 65% of PF milk schools.

22 Juice District Locale: Servings per StudentStrongest development in Medium/Large cities at nearly 70 units per student. Suburbs are roughly half that level and are weakest locale. The smaller and rural areas are consistent and around the overall average. Servings per Student URBAN RURAL Schools 760 524 332 881 1,381 3,880 Students 498,957 344,482 204,846 458,769 606,142 2,113,945 IMPLICATION: Suburbs locales are underdeveloped. Suburbs = Opportunity to grow distribution and servings.

23 Milk Volume Not Adversely Effected by Also Delivering JuiceMilk is virtually the same whether Prairie Farms delivers the juice or just milk. Suggests sizeable volume in 65% of schools where you only deliver milk. Suburbs show the lowest development for both milk and juice. Note: Left bar - Schools where Prairie Farms only delivers milk Right bar - Prairie Farms delivers both milk and juice

24 Milk & Juice in Elementary SchoolsMedium and Large Cities have two different patterns: A group of schools with juice nearly equal or more than milk (1:1 line). The majority of schools have milk volume at 3-4 X the juice level. 1:1 ELEMENTARY (MED & LRG CITY) Servings/Student JUICE 3:1 MILK Servings/Student

25 Milk & Juice in Elementary SchoolsThe majority of suburban schools have milk sales of 2-4 X the juice levels. 1:1 ELEMENTARY (SUBURBAN) 3:1 Servings/Student JUICE MILK Servings/Student

26 Profile: Hiland-OK Juice Development648 schools with milk, 80% of which also had juice sales (520 schools). Juice Servings per Student Grade level Distrib 4 oz 6-16 oz TOTAL Elementary 78% 80.9 --- Secondary 78 27.1 40.5 67.6 Mixed 87 47.3 0.5 47.7 Total 80 58.1 11.4 69.5 Top 25 juice districts were mostly small (<1,000 students) with a notable exception (Arlington, TX). Arlington, TX with 63,319 students used 148 juice servings per student, with 40% being the larger size. Top 25 range from 95 – 250 servings per student.

27 Large Districts in Geos’ Top 25 Juice DevelopmentJuice Servings per Student PF-Geo City F/R % Students 4 oz 6-16 oz TOTAL All Cities 60.4 8.4 68.7 H-N Omaha, NE 73% 48,566 97.9 --- Shawnee Mission, KS 37 27,083 57.5 LuVel Jackson, MS 90 28,245 97.8 PF-IN Indianapolis, IN 86 24,962 136.7 Fort Wayne, IN 69 27,582 46.7 Evansville, IN 58 21,872 38.3 PF-MI Lansing, MI 65 11,103 43.7 PF-MO Lee’s Summit, MO (S) 20 17,518 42.7 0.7 43.2 Parkway C-2, MO (S) 15 14,726 35.8 Turner Madison County, TN (S) 77 13,368 104.0 0.2 104.2 H-OK Arlington, TX 68 63,319 90.4 57.7 148.2

28 Juice Opportunity: What If …“What If” scenarios uses geography ‘leader’ within Prairie Farms Current juice leader: Hiland OK with 80% distribution and 69.5 servings per student. Runner-up was Turner with 66% distribution and 67 servings. Across the company, juice sales occurred in 3,880 schools (35%) and totaled 109,329 M servings (51.7 per student). “WHAT IF” Existing juice schools increased to Hiland-OK servings + 37,508 M % Distribution increased 10 points at current servings + 30,042 M % Distribution increase to Hiland-OK (80%) at current servings +131,746 M +121% Distribution & servings BOTH rise to Hiland-OK 69.5 svgs) +214,452 M +196% Volume would grow to 323,782 M units. +25% increase in unit sales across all of PF.

29 Juice Opportunity: SummaryJuice sales currently in 35% of the PF Milk schools. Significant upside from focused development. Distribution potential in 65% of current schools. Usage – virtually all could step-up their a la carte juice presence. Development of larger size for a la carte sales – secondary schools and suburbs are the key targets. Depending upon how high you set the goal, the potential for juice growth ranges from +30% to +200%. Distribution drive to equal Hiland-OK (80% of milk schools) delivers +121% (+131 MM). This translates to +10% in overall PF unit deliveries to schools, with no incremental stops. How do you want to attack this opportunity?

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31 Yogurt Development OverviewYogurt sold to 8.5% of schools that bought Prairie Farms milk. 932 out of 10,933 schools Sales were fragmented between 4oz., 6-7 oz. and bulk, with the bulk package representing 40% of the equivalent servings. SCHOOLS Package Servings % Mix No. % 4oz 619M 30% 293 2.7% 6-7 oz. 616 29 398 3.6 5.3 oz Grk 22 1 61 0.6 Bulk (5lb) 832 40 449 4.1 TOTAL* 2,089M 100 932 8.5% CUPS Cups: Sold in 653 schools (6%). Bulk: 449 schools. 75% of bulk volume occurs in schools where cups were purchased from another source. Opportunity to expand bulk with or without cups. * Does not add due to schools buying both cups and bulk

32 Yogurt Distribution & Servings per StudentSecondary schools had 11.8% distribution. Nearly two-thirds of Secondary servings (2.3 /student) came from bulk, while elementary use (5.2 /student) was 80+% cups. TOTAL ELEMENTARY SECONDARY MIXED TOTAL PRAIRIE FARMS – Distribution 8.5% 7.0% 11.8% 9.0% Servings per Student 3.4 5.2 2.3 3.1 (Columns below adds to 100%) Share of Servings by Size 4 oz cups 29.6% 46.7% 13.9% 12.1% 6 & 7 oz cups 29.5% 33.5% 21.6% 30.8% 5.3 oz Greek cups 1.1% 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% *5 lb Bulk 39.8% 19.3% 62.1% 56.4% *Equivalized to 4 oz cups

33 Yogurt Distribution & Servings per Student8.5% of Prairie Farms schools purchased yogurt. % of Milk Schools Servings/ Student Total ELEMENTARY SECONDARY MIXED Central 10.1% 3.2 4.7 2.4 North 16.1 6.7 3.9 4.5 OK 15.9 3.3 5.3 0.8 2.2 IL 7.6 3.1 2.8 2.5 3.8 IN 16.7 4.6 1.2 2.1 MI 5.0 5.4 1.6 MO 12.0 4.1 7.8 1.9 2.9 Upper MW 5.1 4.0 KY 3.6 0.7 0.4 TN 0.3 ---  --- TOTAL PRAIRIE FARMS 8.5% 3.4 5.2 2.3

34 Yogurt District Locale: DistributionStrongest presence was found large city secondary schools (25%). Significant growth potential from broadening distribution, whether bulk, cups or both. % of PF Milk Schools URBAN RURAL Schools 151 145 140 193 303 932 Students 140,185 113,358 95,825 109,109 153,813 612,290 % of PF Milk Schools Elementary 7 12 6 Secondary 25 9 16 Mixed 10 14 8

35 Yogurt District Locale: Servings per StudentYogurt sales were very modest across all geography locales. Servings per Student URBAN RURAL Schools 151 145 140 193 303 932 Students 140,185 113,358 95,825 109,109 153,813 612,290 Svgs per Student Elementary 5.5 4.5 5.9 3.4 6.0 5.2 Secondary 3.0 1.5 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.3 Mixed 3.1 1.9 3.8 4.0 2.9

36 Yogurt Opportunity: What If’sSEVERAL APPROACHES TO LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THE OPPORTUNITY Compare to National Averages Highlight ‘Best Performing Schools’ in your Geography What are they doing? Understand whether it comes at the expense of milk or is incremental?

37 Yogurt Opportunity: What If …Prairie Farms yogurt developments is low, with tremendous upside potential. Competition mostly from national brands delivered through Foodservice distributors. Across the company, yogurt sales occurred in 932 schools (8.5%) and totaled 2,089 M servings (3.4 per student). WHAT IF …. Nat’l distribution (90%) & servings (5-8.3) MM servings … if Prairie Farms achieves a 33% share Southeast distribution (100%) & servings (9) MM … if Prairie Farms achieves a 33% share If 33% of PF secondary schools realized Bullitt County levels +800 schools, 590, servings Yogurt parfait in a pouch package (32-64oz) appears an attractive solution for schools wanting to capture this opportunity while minimizing labor and packaging cost.

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39 Community Eligibility: A Big OpportunityHealthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 included “community eligibility provision” (CEP) as a new option to allow qualifying schools to feed more students. Illinois, Kentucky, and Michigan piloted CEP in the school year. New York, Ohio, West Virginia and Washington, DC began offering CEP in the school year. Every state could offer CEP beginning school year. CEP Increases School Meal Participation Yr. 1 CEP in school year in Illinois, Kentucky and Michigan: Breakfast participation rose 25 pct. points (44% to 56% .. Oct.’10 vs. Oct. ’12). and Lunch participation rose 13 pct. points, (69% to 78% .. Oct.’10 vs. Oct. ’12). Yr. 1 of CEP (‘11-’12) in Detroit Public Schools: Breakfast participation +15 points, +7,400 per day. Lunch participation +30 points, +14,000 per day. NY in Yr. 2 of Pilot Weekly Milk Usage Source: USDA & FRAC, November 2013; Prime Consulting analysis

40 Only 51% of Eligible Districts Have Adopted CEP

41 What is the Potential for Prairie Farms?Quick Projection Breakfast Expansion thru CEP in States Served by Prairie Farms WHAT IF # 1 WHAT IF # 2 WHAT IF # 3 % of Qualifying Students* 53% to 70% 53% to 100% # of Students 500,000 800,000 2,200,000 % Selecting Milk, Juice or Yogurt at Breakfast 95% Days per Year 180 Units 85,500,000 136,800,000 376,200,000 70% Milk (Gallons) 3,375,000 5,400,000 16, Virtually every student will select either a milk, juice or yogurt for breakfast. Likely mix: servings/student: Milk (70%) 101 MM units, 108 servings/student (6.75 gal/ student). Juice (15%) Yogurt (10%) * In states served by Prairie Farms (ex. TX). 70% is FRAC goal.

42 Multiple Product Distribution in “Milk Schools”Juice was sold to 35% of the “Milk Schools”, while Yogurt to 8.5% of the schools. All 3 products (Milk, Juice & Yogurt) were sold to only 4.8% of the schools. Hiland-OK had the strongest multi-category distribution

43 Opportunity Recap Strong growth potential exists for Prairie Farms in the School channel. Using the midpoint of the growth potential projections, growth actions could deliver 20-25% growth in the 10,933 public schools used for this analysis. These schools are currently served by Prairie Farms, so initially minimal incremental distribution infrastructure investment would be required. Product 2014 Unit Sales Growth Potential Milk Half Pint 846.4 MM MM Milk oz 2.8 3.8 Juice 109.3 (100% Share) Yogurt 2.1 (33% Share) TOTAL 960.6 MM MM An integrated multi-year sales development plan will be needed to capture a meaningful portion of these opportunities. The projections do not include private schools or schools serviced by Distributors, yet many of the ideas would be equally applicable.

44 Summary: Evaluation & Growth Potential ‘on a Page’Each geography has sizeable opportunities that could be pursued through adoption of Fact Based Selling and Best Practice sharing. EVALUATION/ CURRENT STATUS POTENTIAL How could Prairie Farms mobilize to capture these opportunities?

45 Next Steps to Capture School Grow PotentialProduct Offering Investigate ready-to-serve Yogurt Parfait in a pouch (32oz or 64 oz). Program Features Encourage districts to adopt Community Eligibility Provision (CEP). Sales & Information - Fact Based Selling approach Populate/use business review template 1-2 pages for Foodservice Directors Distribution Drive Collect and share ‘best practices’ that drive more milk consumption in schools Foodservice Directors want to learn from each other Merchandising locations and menu inclusion Milk box placement; breakfast service (CEP, BIC, 2CB, etc.), salad bars, a la carte, etc. Arm Sales team with ‘cause - effect’ know-how to share (tied to review template) Consider raising visibility within State SNA chapters. Ideas include: Sponsor Milk or Farm-to-Table awards Create pipeline of best practices to promote and be associated with * Assume legislative and policy work already in place for milk

46 Questions/Discussion