1 The 13th Annual Gulf Insurance Forum (19th Oct. – 20th Oct. 2016)“LIFE INSURANCE HORIZON IN THE REGION”
2 MENA in Perspective: “LIFE INSURANCE HORIZON IN THE REGION"Surface and size perspective Area Surface '000 SKM Percentage of dry land USA 9,860 7% Canada 9,985 Russia 17,100 11% China 9,600 6% Europe 10,180 Australia 7,700 5% Brazil 8,516 MENA Total 15,139 10% [GIF | [Mazen G. Abouchakra] | [October2016]
3 MENA Population Pyramid “LIFE INSURANCE HORIZON IN THE REGION"Countries and Continents https://populationpyramid.net/ [GIF] | [Mazen G. Abouchakra] | [October 2 016]
4 CI @ Gen Re Historical DevelopmentDread Disease Survey Countries Companies Claims Lives In-force 1 1990–1994 3 4,600 2 1993–1997 7,000 3 million 1996–2000 31 16,000 4 million 4 2000–2004 6 48 263,000 41 million 5 2004–2008 10 95 750,000 > 70 m 7 82 >1,000,000 >100m
5 82 companies 391m life-year Exposure 1.2m claimsDread Disease Survey China (34) Australia (6) Hong Kong (17) 82 companies 391m life-year Exposure 1.2m claims Korea (2) Malaysia (10) Indonesia (5) Singapore (9) Proprietary and Confidential | © General Reinsurance Corporation
6 Cancer Incidence Rate - China3.8% p.a. 2.3% p.a.
7 Heart Attack Incidence Rate – China4.9% p.a. 3.8% p.a.
8 Leading Causes of Claim – China – MaleTop 5 Critical Illnesses Cause of Claim Rank # % Cancer 1 Ischemic Heart Disease 2 Stroke 3 Kidney Failure 4 Heart Surgery 5 Paralysis 6 Chronic Liver Failure 7 Benign Brain Tumor 8 Head Trauma 9 Major Organ Transplant 10 Total of top 10 98.4% Total number of claims 293,122 1. Cancer 2. Heart Attack 3. Stroke 4. Kidney Failure 5. Heart Surgery
9 Leading Causes of Claim – China – FemaleCause of Claim Rank # % Cancer 1 Stroke 2 Ischemic Heart Disease 3 Kidney Failure 4 Heart Surgery 5 Benign Brain Tumor 6 Paralysis 7 Systemic Lupus Erythematosus 8 Chronic Liver Failure 9 Aplastic Anemia 10 Total of top 10 98.9% Total number of claims 322,891 Top 5 Critical Illnesses 1. Cancer 2. Stroke 3. Heart Attack 4. Kidney Failure 5. Heart Surgery
10 Medical Progress - need for robust definitionsTrend of major Cancers in Korea - Female Screening - Thyroid Cancer Thyroid Cancer rates in Korea have seen the highest ratio of increase from 2000 to 2011 (23% per year) Thyroid Cancer is among the seven leading types of cancer for females Significant Increase can be seen in other countries as well (e.g. China) Observed Thyroid Cancer incidence is mainly driven by the availability and affordability of diagnostic techniques e.g. ultra-sound screening Source: National Cancer Registration & Statistics 2008, the Korea Central Cancer Registry
11 Thyroid Cancer in Korea – is the worst over?The trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Korea and China were a major source of concern regarding long-term guarantees in CI in the past years. Changing attitudes in the medical profession: A group of thyroid pathologists suggest a subtype of thyroid tumours be reclassified such that they are no longer identified as cancer.
12 Trends in diagnosed Heart Attacksmarathon Deteriorations: More cases classified as heart attack with increased use of troponin More recurrent heart attacks in older ages
13 Heart Attack – not yet the end of the roadNow hypersensitive Troponin is available Will increase the number of diagnosed heart attacks by 30-50% Since 2007, universal heart attack definition exists Definition is weaker than ABI standard (different purpose) Trend to less restrictive definitions in several markets Should all Heart Attacks be covered? Does the policy holder understand that not all heart attacks are covered? Will regulator accept this? Will there be a further increase in diagnoses in the future?
14 Life Expectancy and Incidence Rates risingPeople are living longer due to improved economic factors, medical progress and enhanced accessibility to medical treatment and healthcare facilities. This does not mean that critical illnesses are being eradicated, rather that we are better at diagnosing and treating serious illnesses, and therefore at surviving for longer after a diagnosis. Overall incidence rates of critical illness have increased over recent years and this trend is expected to continue. Contributing factors to these TRENDs include: Variations in healthcare accessibility Lifestyle risk trends: increased sedentary lifestyles, alcohol and poor eating habits Improvements in diagnostics Increasing elderly populations
15 The Future
16 Proprietary and Confidential | © General Reinsurance AGProprietary Notice The material contained in this presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes by Gen Re. The material is based on sources believed to be reliable and/or from proprietary data developed by Gen Re, but we do not represent as to its accuracy or its completeness. The content of this presentation is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances. Die in dieser Präsentation enthaltenen Informationen wurden von der Gen Re lediglich zu Informationszwecken zusammengestellt. Das Material basiert auf zuverlässigen Quellen oder eigenen Daten der Gen Re. Dennoch übernehmen wir keine Haftung hinsichtlich ihrer Genauigkeit oder Vollständigkeit. Der Inhalt dieser Präsentation ist als allgemeine Information gedacht. Für Ihren konkreten Bedarf sollten Sie auf jeden Fall den Rat eines Spezialisten einholen. [MENA] | [Mazen G. Abouchakra] | [September 2016] Proprietary and Confidential | © General Reinsurance AG
17 Thank You Mazen G. Abouchakra Gen Re MENA