1 Traffic Safety and Human NatureCE 635 Highway Safety Issues Student Lecture Spring 2014 John Cassel, PE
2 Traffic Safety and Human NatureGrandma vs. Kid on a bike Vic vs. abusive motorists Driverless car vs. Autopilot
3 Grandma vs. Kid On A Bike Residential street, small town, little traffic 60 year old experienced driver, very few accidents, cautious Nine year old bicyclist, having fun, not paying attention Crash! H-L 4/1-2/2014
4 Vic vs. Abusive MotoristsClays Mill Road daily commute to UK 50 year old aggressive, experienced, dedicated, high mileage bicyclist Various motorists tossing bottles, etc. and driving threateningly Vic is an engineer – problem solver Crash!
5 Driverless car(*) vs. AutopilotAdd automatic functions to automobiles Sensors if you are following too close or if there is a sudden decrease in speed, etc. Tesla’s Elon Musk claims a self-driving car by ’16 Autopilot decreases workload and fatigue “Automation addiction” autopilot actually flies the aircraft 90% of the time “Heavy reliance…led to poor manual flying skills…lack of confidence…increasing the hazards to air travelers.” Asiana Airlines 214/MH370 B-777
6 Traffic Safety and Human Nature1950 Walt Disney Productions
7 Walt Disney’s “Motor Mania”Humorously shows the bad side of human nature Still useful tool - its truth is timeless Imagine an updated “Mr. Wheeler” hacking into the computer system that controls your driverless car! Google “Freeway Phobia #1”(1965) and “Goofy’s Freeway Trouble”(1965) for more…
8 Walt Disney’s “Freeway Phobia”
9 Traffic Safety Stats The greatest factor in traffic safety is US!Trans system 100% dependent on human input and interaction In ,367 fatalities on US roads 89/day; 1/16 minutes 1,530,000 reported injuries Costs $99 billion per year; congestion/EMS $200B! 10-15% due to Road design/construction issues 5-10% vehicle failure issues 75-85% due to Human error! 35% fatal crashes involve alcohol 20% fatal crashes involve speeding 26% pax fatalities due to no seat belt Human Error>>Human Nature>>100%
10 Areas Affected By Human NatureEducation Only as good as the humans running it/ideas it is based on Bad driver behavior/habits taught or allowed at this level can have fatal consequences later Design Engineers do their best to create the best road system or vehicle Process is a series of compromises - differing opinions/desires/needs Man-O-War Boulevard, Corvair
11 Areas Affected By Human NatureConstruction/Manufacturing Dealing with roadways during construction Don’t buy a car built on Monday Maintenance If roads/vehicles not maintained >> decay/failures Priorities too often depend on politics Enforcement State of mind of the patrol officer /management
12 Human Nature - The Scientific MethodBasic human nature is relatively unchanging Without active efforts to change Increased safety education, training, better design in the ‘60s changed the growing fatality trend downward Bad and good tendencies – both motorists/users and scientists/engineers A bad tendency - to think that your solution is best, and how can you improve on that? A good tendency - the continual desire to improve on current situations
13 Traffic Safety and Human NatureGödel's Incompleteness Theorem: any logical model of reality is incomplete (and possibly inconsistent) /must be continuously refined in the face of new observations Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle: limits on our ability to observe reality with precision Second Law of Thermodynamics: The entropy of any closed system always tends to increase, and thus the nature is continuously changing even as efforts are directed toward maintaining it in its original form Hawthorne Effect: People change their behavior simply because they know they are in an experiment.
14 Traffic Safety and the OODA LoopBoyd wanted the best process to solve problems using the way we think. He concluded that to maintain an accurate or effective grasp of reality one must undergo a continuous cycle of interaction with the environment geared to assessing its constant changes
15 Potential Research Needs/Knowledge GapsContinuous research of interaction Culture, technology, physical abilities More research on better education techniques DriveCam Keep gathering data and analyzing, looking for new issues and solutions as well as reviewing the old ones and reinforcing good ones. In that way human errors can be minimized “Traffic is thus a living laboratory of human interaction…” Vanderbilt in “Traffic”
16 Traffic Safety and Human NatureOur Goal - Minimize human errors Design systems and vehicles to help drivers to safely drive and navigate Be careful to have as few design flaws as possible due to human engineering mistakes Minimize human errors by users, educating and training them to overcome their bad human nature Creating systems that help drivers to overcome that nature
17 Traffic Safety and Human NatureQuestions?
18 Traffic Safety and Human NatureReferences Personal interviews Vic Annas, Dorothy Cassel, Spring 2014 N. Stamatiadis and R. Souleyrette. CE 635 Lectures G. Brunner. The Future of Cars is Autopilot, Not Self-Driving, According to Elon Musk. Extreme Tech, May 7, 2013. US Airline Pilots Addicted to Autopilots; Cannot Fly Manually. The Emergency & Wireless Network, 2014. A. Lewis. FAA Study: Aviators Too Dependent on Autopilot. Fox News, December 4, 2013. T. Vanderbilt. Traffic: why we drive the way we do (and what it says about us). Vintage Books, New York, 2008 J. Boyd. "Destruction and Creation." US Army Command and General Staff College, September 3, 1976 From Wikipedia