1 Trends and Megatrends Ullrich Lorenz, Umweltbundesamt – Dessau, Germany Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt - Vienna, Austria Copenhagen, EIONET/FLIS, 18.11.2010

2 Structure of the presentation  Some definitions..  State of the art, some examples..  SOER  EEA  European research on socio-economic trends  Examples from Germany  Example from Austria  Some conclusions, lessons learned..  Recommendation of the „coordination group“ of NRC FLIS for the upcoming work..  A common trend monitoring system..

3 What‘s a microtrend? notable change with very limited effects short- or mid-term maybe a starting trend or only regional What‘s a trend? basic change with some remarkable effects mid- or long-term sometimes a starting megatrend or only regional What‘s a megatrend? significant global change long-term wide-ranging impacts Disclaimer: this is an intuitive text. There are definitions at http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf

4 Assessment of global megatrends SOER 2010 focus on five sets of interrelated megatrends social technological economical environmental political

5 SOER Part A : 11 Fact sheets for thematic assessments of global mega-trends  demographic shifts  economic growth  increased global regulation  multi-centric power structure  resource competition  pandemic risks  urbanization  climate change  depletion of natural resources  unsustainability and pollution  technological speed

6 Example - EEA: SCP in Western Balkan Countries

7 Reserarch on socio-economic trends in Europe  FORESCENE Development of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (FP6 Priority 8.1, 2005-2008)  FOR-LEARN provide on-line support to Foresight practitioners and users at local, regional, sectoral and national or trans- national level who are either running a Foresight exercise or planning to start one (FP6, DG-Res, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2005-2008)  Literature review and mega trends of driving forces of future environmental change and workshop on mega-trends and surprises - Research foresight for Environment and Sustainability – (EEA, 2007/2008)  The METRIS Report Emerging Trends in Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities in Europe (DG Res, 2009)  GLOBAL EUROPE 2030/2050 The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities – an expert group (DG Research – The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities / EU Research in Foresight and Forecast / SSH Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities; starting March 2010 for 24 months)  Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges (European Commission – JRC Joint Research Centre, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2010)

8 Example of Trend Analysis in UBA-Germany: Identifying of future „hotspots“

9 Analysis of 6 megatrends Disclaimer: this work is not complete!

10 State of the art: Megatrend Analysis Relative impact of „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ with feedback loops Relative impact of „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ without feedback loops

11 State of the art: advanced cross-impact-analysis of trends Energy prices for consumers rising Energy eficiency rising Regulation for energy eficiency Extraction of Energy resources decreasing Not necessarily! A causal relationship is determined by the context.

12 Some lessons learned (in UBA Germany) so far… (SWOT) Megatrend and trend analysis, are key for strategic evaluation of measures Trend and megatrend analysis help understanding patterns and help deriving priorisations Is a complex exercise „suffers“ recognition/ acceptance by policy makers (due to complexity and long term orientation vs. Short term policy decisions) Megatrend are (only) a basis for further analysis Monocausal analysis might be misleading Better policy advise Long term decisions time consuming and complex Many methods and steep learning curve

13 A microtrend story from Austria (1/4) Households - electricity demand Yea r What will be the forward looking demand? ?

14 A microtrend story from Austria (2/4) Households - electricity demand Washing  IT Infrastructure  IT and Entertainment  Cooking  Cooling  Lighting  Year But there are some divergent subtrends!

15 A microtrend story from Austria (3/4) Households - electricity demand Washing  IT Infrastructure  IT and Entertainment  Cooking  Cooling  Lighting  Year but just a compen- sation of enhanced divergent subtrends! Stabilisation,

16 A microtrend story from Austria (4/4) Households - electricity demand Washing  IT Infrastructure  IT and Entertainment  Cooking  Cooling  Lighting  Year Break- through of the subtrend demand ! Suddenly more fossil power is needed!

17 Ability to respond on upcoming changes  early detection -> quick response  delayed reaction -> repercussions multiply  inertia -> postponement of urgent decisions

18 Conclusions for the work in the NRC-FLIS The aim of further activities should be to focus on identification of main trends for the European environment interlinkages and impacts of this trends updated information

19  To identify, monitor and assess trends (global and European, may be also regional) with relation to the environment  Setting up a monitoring system, in particular for regional microtrends (to define what is this) mainly for European trends and if possible for regional trends as well.  monitoring/news collection  Data compilation (possibly with regional breakdowns)  Systemic analysis and assessments: to further compile and assess global and/versus European megatrends with relation to the environment with regards to:  analysis of megatrends, including a qualitative list of the most relevant environmental impacts and known reasons to launch an to push a trend and the known interactions between megatrends  Foreseen short-, mid- and long-term tendencies of trends and megatrends  Important global and European reports and activities dealing with Megatrends (Looking outside the environmental area)  Clear definition of trend phases, conditional regional effects and description of trend life cycles  Communication  Reporting  Web presentation  Guidelines for use and presentation Conclusions for the work in the NRC-FLIS (2)

20 What can FLIS do to boost chances of a smart policy response? We can co-operate to:  check incipient/emerging microtrends  analyze and monitor effects  presenting results and set-up a warning system  develop common response strategies

21 Why should we look for trends? early warning in offical reports building realistic scenarios looking for adequate ways to overcome socio-economic obstacles => to provide smart and up-to-date policy advice

22 How a new trend or a change can be found? Experts keep an eye on I. driving forces behind new trends II. statistical clues III. pressures and risks by a multi-disciplinary systematic search Scanning by sensitve persons on I. anticipated changes II. enhanced risks III. anxieties and fears

23 What would a common trend monitoring system look like? Sensoring – collecting signals from individuals Scanning – expert research Analysing– international network of experts Communicating – information to decision makers

24 What would be the benefits of a common trend monitoring system?  current trend monitoring  watchful monitoring of early signs  dynamic risk assessment  broad knowledge pool