1 Welcome

2 Implementation of a weather forecast SMS systemin rural Mongolia Erkhes B. ICT & MEL Manager 2017 ICT4D Conference Hyderabad, India

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4 Content Introduction Creating the weather forecast SMS system ResultsImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural mongolia Content Introduction 1.1. Mongolia 1.2. Mercy Corps 1.3. Dzud 1.4. LTS2 program Creating the weather forecast SMS system 2.1. Analysis 2.2. Technology 2.3. Challenges & lessons learned Results 3.1. Impact assessment Plan for improvements

5 1.1. Mongolia Located in central AsiaImplementation of a weather forecast sms system IN MONGOLIA 1.1. Mongolia Located in central Asia 18th largest country in the world Borders with Russia and China Population: 3.1 million Capital: Ulaanbaatar (1.4 million) Main industries: mining and agriculture/herding Number of livestock: 61.5 million

6 1.2. Mercy Corps Global humanitarian aid agency Founded in 1979Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural mongolia Implementation of a weather 1.2. Mercy Corps Global humanitarian aid agency Founded in 1979 4,000 team members in 40 countries Office in Mongolia since 1999 Implemented over 25 programs on strengthening economic growth, building civil society, promoting open and transparent governance and helping local communities strengthen their capacities to be able to respond to and mitigate risks of natural disaster Active in 15 out of 21 provinces

7 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA1.3. Dzud Winters in Mongolia are long and harsh, with temperatures typically ranging from -20°C to -50°C degrees. Dzud is a severe winter in which large number of livestock die, primarily due to starvation due to being unable to graze, in other cases directly from the cold

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9 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA1.3. Dzud

10 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA1.4. LTS2 Program Aims to reduce the risk of Dzud to herder communities and rural economies in Mongolia through on-demand weather information and by increased local planning and risk reduction capacity. Target area: 128 soums (districts) in 15 aimags (provinces) out of 21. One of the objectives is it to complete the construction of a national SMS platform for weather and pasture information delivered directly to herders

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12 2. Creating the weather forecast SMS SystemImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2. Creating the weather forecast SMS System 2.1. Analysis. Main reasons for creating the system: Many animals (over 1.4 million) died in previous winter. One of the reasons was lack of access to weather forecast information for herders, which is necessary to plan and to prepare for harsh conditions Information aired through local TV and radio is very general and inaccurate, being only at aimag (province) level. Information through local TV and radio is aired only during certain hours, which a herder can miss due to his/her herding obligations or other reasons (lack of electricity, weak signal reception, etc.) Warnings (phone calls, face to face talks) from local government is often not timely, nor efficient

13 2.1. Analysis Main reasons for pursuing SMS system as a solution:Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.1. Analysis Main reasons for pursuing SMS system as a solution: Mobile applications are currently not an option. Most herders and rural people don’t use smartphones: normal phones are much cheaper, easier to operate, have better battery life, require less charging time, provide better network coverage and are in general more stable and reliable in harsh conditions Only province centers are connected to the internet, rural areas have limited or no internet access. 3G mobile network connections and modems provided by operators companies are too expensive

14 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA2.1. Analysis Main reasons why previous attempts (from other organizations) on creating SMS systems for distributing weather information did not succeed: Messages containing forecast information were sent/pushed to all users for a specific area, using a list of all numbers provided by some mobile operators. Negative effects were: Not everyone needed this information Not everyone has received the needed information (phone was turned off, or user was in an area with no network coverage) Not every mobile operators provided phone numbers of their users (there are four major mobile companies in Mongolia) It is very expensive for the implementer and thus not sustainable

15 2.1. Analysis 4. Optimal Solution* 2. Reasons for pursuing SMS systemPresentation title 2.1. Analysis 4. Optimal Solution* 1. Reasons for creating the system 2. Reasons for pursuing SMS system 3. Reasons why previous systems did not succeed *Optimal solution =/= best solution

16 2.1. Analysis As the result, following goals were set:Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.1. Analysis As the result, following goals were set: The system will provide at least district (soum) or even sub- district (bagh) level of highly accurate weather forecast information The system will send out specific information only when requested by a user For sustainability purpose, the system will be as cheap as possible, both for the user and the implementer

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18 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA2.2. Technology

19 2.2. Technology Current “actors” of the system:Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA 2.2. Technology Current “actors” of the system: https://darksky.net/ (formerly known as Forecast.io) – accurate source of hyperlocal weather information with down-to-the-minute forecasts. The company specializes in weather forecasting and visualization. Easy, advanced weather web API (application programming interface) The first 1,000 forecasts per day are free. Then, $ per forecast iOS and Android app Dark Sky Graphical Ideogram (“emoji”) Map

20 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA2.2. Technology 2. – automatically creates and stores SMS texts for target locations by using information from Darksky.net Written using Symfony – PHP web application framework Hosted on https://www.digitalocean.com/ server. Monthly fee $10.00 Domain name from $8.99 per year

21 2.2. Technology 3. Any mobile phone of system userImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.2. Technology 3. Any mobile phone of system user Used for sending SMS to request weather forecast information for his/her location User is charged between $0.004 and $0.010 for sending SMS depending on his/her mobile operator 4. Android smartphone of LTS2 program The device is used receive request SMS from users Get the appropriate forecast information from lts2sms.com (via engageSPARK app which is installed, see next slide) Send the SMS with information back to the user. Costs between $0.004 and $0.010

22 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA2.2. Technology 5. engageSPARK (eS) app - enables building and launching SMS and Voice Call alerts, surveys, reminders, educational curriculums, and on demand information campaigns to countries Used as the connecting link between Android phone of the program and lts2sms.com. Main tasks are: Retrieve SMS request (code) from user Connect to lts2sms.com link that corresponds to the code (via webhook API) Retrieve SMS text from lts2sms.com. Fee is $0.005 / SMS Get the text ready to be sent from the Android phone back to the user (via native SMS app and local mobile operator fee)

23 YourLocationCode X (for example: 80805 1)Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.2. Technology Steps on how to use the SMS system: 1. First, get to know your location code by either using the printed manual, contacting Mercy Corps staff or local government, or by using zipcode.mn portal. 2. Then, send following SMS text to number to request information from the SMS system: YourLocationCode X (for example: ) where X can be either 1,2,3 or 105. 3. Receive specific requested information for your location in 1-2 minutes

24 2.2. Technology Manual for system usersImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA 2.2. Technology Manual for system users

25 2.2. Technology Current information provided by the system:Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.2. Technology Current information provided by the system: “1” for 1-3 day weather forecast information (using https://darksky.net/ data) “2” for 4-6 day weather forecast information (using https://darksky.net/ data) “3” for 60 day pasture forage information (using Mongolia Livestock Early Warning System data) “105” for National emergency and early warning information provided by National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) of Mongolia

26 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in RURAL MONGOLIA2.2. Technology

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28 2.3. Challenges & lessons learnedImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.3. Challenges & lessons learned During the creation and implementation of the system partnerships were formed with many organizations, from government agencies and mobile operators to national and international institutions and businesses. Some of them very fruitful, some of them not as much: Professionals of University of Keio, Japan Mongolia’s National Agency of Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM) Mobile operators (MobiCom, G-Mobile) National and international IT service providers (AlphaLab LLC, engageSPARK) Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) of Mongolia National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) of Mongolia When first starting with the creation of the system we have partnered with professionals from University of Kyoto, Japan as they had experience working with SMS systems in Mongolia. Collaboration resulted in a system that required manual input of source information, which didn’t correspond to our expectations. Some national IT entities were contacted to work on creation an automated system based on the weather information provided by National Agency of Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring of Mongolia. Unfortunately, NAMEM could not provide sub-district level of weather forecast information.

29 2.3. Challenges & lessons learnedImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.3. Challenges & lessons learned Used or tried to use different data sources for weather forecast information: https://www.yr.no/ (Norway Metrological Institute) https://www.worldweatheronline.com/ (NAMEM) https://darksky.net/

30 2.3. Challenges & lessons learnedImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.3. Challenges & lessons learned Usage of engageSPARK app for the system can sometimes be tedious: Always has to be connected to internet (Wi-Fi or 3G) Can lead to slower SMS delivery time (sometimes up to 15 minutes) Have to charge the balance of your eS account Every new engagement (adding a new location or service) has to be configured manually Periodic app crashes, no SMS delivery. Contacting the support team, explaining the situation and fixing the problem can sometimes take few days

31 2.3. Challenges & lessons learnedImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.3. Challenges & lessons learned Usage of a smartphone to operate the system requires great effort: Phone always needs to be powered on Constant charging of the battery Always have to be connected to mobile network Regular checking of phone functionality

32 2.3. Challenges & lessons learnedImplementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 2.3. Challenges & lessons learned Managing mobile operators and regulations: LTS2 phone number, which is used for SMS services, is a regular phone number provided by current mobile operator. There is a regulation among mobile operators that any phone number sending out more than 100 messages in a day should be blocked. Current operator is not strict on that regulation, but there is a possibility that the number will get blocked in the future Other mobile operators already have implemented this restriction. Previous number provided by another operator was blocked within the first 2 days

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34 3. Results The system went online on June 9, 2016Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA 3. Results The system went online on June 9, 2016 By March 2017, over 46,000 requests were received from users Over 37,000 weather forecast messages were delivered to users 8.4% of user didn’t receive a response due to mistyping or typing wrong or incomplete requests, and 13% of requests failed due to malfunctioning of engageSPARK service or issues with mobile operators

35 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA3.1 Impact assessment An assessment in form of a survey was conducted to measure the impact of the system The survey was conducted using mobile data collection tool Ona (https://ona.io/), which uses XLSform standards for it’s forms A total of 250 users were randomly selected from all provinces and were interviewed on phone

36 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA3.1 Impact assessment Ona survey result charts

37 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA3.1 Impact assessment Ninety one percent of respondents had positive changes in their life as the result of using SMS service: improved planning for daily activities long distance grazing sheering sheep wool combing goat cashmere cutting hay etc. easy and quick access to weather information any time of the day from anywhere plan ahead of extreme weather events such as snow and dust storms safe traveling and improved work efficiency

38 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA3.1 Impact assessment Fifty one percent of respondents said that they use Mercy Corps’ SMS system as a main source for weather forecast information Most of survey participants (90%) answered that the accuracy of SMS weather information was always good and only 2 people (0.8%) answered that accuracy was not good Overall, 81% of surveyed people assessed the quality of SMS as good, 13% said that they cannot rate SMS service at the moment, 6.2% answered quality is average and 0.4% (1 person) answered that quality is bad

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40 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in MONGOLIA4. Plan for Improvements Several improvements are being planned for the system: Switch to a dedicated SMS service/hotline number will result in: shorter response/delivery time no limitation on number of sent SMS more reliable, stable system Addition of new type of information and services (e.g. pasture carrying capacity information, product price information) Institutionalizing the system. A national organization will be taking over the system, ensuring it’s longevity and sustainability

41 Implementation of a weather forecast sms system in rural MONGOLIA4. Plan for Improvements

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43 Thank You!

44 Erkhes B. Photos used from: Enkhtuya (LTS2 manager) ICT & MEL Manager