1 Workforce Forecast to 2024 & Recent Trends Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission January 29, 2016 Glenn Mills Chief Economist Center for Workforce Research Maine Dept. of Labor www.maine.gov/labor/cwri [email protected] 207-621-5192

2 Workforce forecast to 2024 Modest workforce growth in the short term due to continuing cyclical recovery; advancing age structure dominates later in decade

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12 Recent trends Very different indications from the monthly household and payroll surveys. What should we believe?

13 The Census Bureau’s recent estimate of the total population for 2015 continues the very flat trend

14 The household survey indicates the unemployment rate is the lowest in 14 years…

15 …The employment to population ratio is trending lower. It is below the U.S. average for the first time in 17 years…

16 …And the labor force and employment are contracting

17 Why forecast labor force and employment growth for the next few years when they have been contracting?

18 In the long run, the household and payroll surveys provide similar indications of growth, but can diverge in recoveries

19 The payroll survey is more volatile from month to month, but is based on a larger sample that provides a more reliable indication of the direction and rate of change over multiple months

20 Inflation-adjusted total wage growth has accelerated as labor market conditions have tightened, reaching the pre-recession peak in the first two quarters of 2015…

21 …And average wages are rising at the fastest rate in more than a decade

22 Maine is not alone facing the aging challenge